As you know (or as “you should know” at least), Best Picture category is a special one: it’s all about the #1 votes of each member of the AMPAS! So, how does it affect the choosing of the nominees? Well, people tend to go for movies they love rather for movies they “just” respect unless they recognize the movie they respect is undeniably good: and that’s why I have Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman in first place for a Best Picture nomination. It’s a movie some might not fall in love with, but it is a movie no one seems able to say “it’s bad” and it also benefits from the all-star names involved in the project: Martin Scorsese, Robert DeNiro, Al Pacino or Joe Pesci… I know it is a Netflix movie, but I can’t picture a scenario where The Irishman is left out of Best Picture nominees shortlist.
The other movie I feel pretty confident about is Parasite – the international foreign language phenomenon, Bong Joon-ho’s latest movie is one of the most critically acclaimed movie in years, an international box-office success, the winner of the Palme d’Or of 2019’s edition of Cannes Film Festival and it has been doing great with critics prizes and even with the SAG (it got nominated for the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast, the first foreign film able to do so since Life Is Beautiful). Plus, people do really love Parasite and all the craft involved in the movie is also outstanding!
Then comes Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: Quentin Tarantino’s movie about the cinematic industry in the late 60’s is the kind of self-reflection movie the AMPAS tends to love and it has been collecting a fair amount of critics prizes and I bet it will fare very well during Golden Globes, which will influence people to get this one as their #1 vote.
It might not be an obvious frontrunner for a Best Picture win, but Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story is emotionally affecting and it is a movie not easy to forget – plus, with such great acting all around, I believe it will not only appeal to those who feel touched by the movie but it will also appeal to actors and acting-lovers. Plus, Marriage Story benefits from an exquisite screenplay (a Best Original Screenplay frontrunner), two charismatic superstar leads (Adam Driver & Scarlett Johansson) and a big campaign from entertainment giant Netflix! And let's not forget it is the most nominated movie at the Golden Globes, including Best Motion Picture - Drama.
There are always one or two late releases that manage a Best Picture nomination – and I’m pretty sure 1917 will be one of them this year. Those who’ve seen it describe the movie as “jaw-dropping”, “impressive” and “amazing”… and while I’m yet to see this one, there’s no way to deny the general audience response to the movie, the critics rave reviews, the critics prizes and the fact it got 3 Golden Globe nominations, including Best Motion Picture – Drama. Plus, the Academy members have always been found of war dramas and 1917 is the rare movie about the WWI (and a frontrunner for the technical categories awards). Another movie about war: Jojo Rabbit might not be a straight to war horrors drama, but it is a creative comedy with a lot of social comment about fanaticism and prejudice. And while Jojo Rabbit is no masterpiece, it is one of the most emotionally satisfying movies of the year – people laugh, people smile, people cry – and it not only managed to get a Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical and a SAG Award nomination for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast, but it also won the 2019’s TIFF People Choice’s Award (and no TIFF big winner missed a Best Picture nom in more than a decade).
Just like 1917, Greta Gerwig’s take on American classic novel Little Women is also a late release, but just like 1917, it has been collecting rave reviews and there are some people who already call Gerwig’s remake “a classic”. The HFPA however didn’t fall in love for Little Women and the movie only scored Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama and Best Original Score and if we look at SAG, it was completely snubed – so what might push Little Women to major award playing territory? The controversy of having female directors snubed everywhere in spite of being a great year for female directed movies. Plus, Little Women is a statement about feminism, so I see a lot of #1 votes to back this project and I believe the AMPAS will want to avoid controversies around the lack of support of women in the industry.
The last movie I’m predicting to get a Best Picture nomination (that’s right, I’m predicting 8), it’s Ford V. Ferrari! In my opinion, the movie is pure old-fashioned cinematic joy, extremely well-made, well-acted and it tells a modern-day David V. Golias tale. To be honest, I don’t know anyone who complained about the movie and it’s a movie I will rank in my TOP 5 movies of the year for sure. Plus, since the AMPAS still is a boys club, I believe a movie about racing cars will an appealing #1 vote.
The next tier is composed by 2 movies: Knives Out and The Farewell. I placed Knives Out my number 9 contender for a Best Picture nomination, mostly because of the unexpected success of the movie! Rian Johnson’s latest is overperforming (clearly) both at the box-office and at the awards season – 3 Golden Globe nominations, including Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical, multiple critics association prizes (noms and wins) for Best Ensemble and Best Original Screenplay (and a couple for Best Picture) and even 3 Critics’ Choice nominations. So, given the unexpected “over-success” of Knives Out, I can see Lionsgate building a late campaign for this one and I believe it might get a “surprise” Best Picture nomination. As for The Farewell… I would say the movie’s chances are fading so far, but I believe the lack of female directors recognition controversy might push some voters going for this one, not only because it is directed by a woman, but also because it is an extremely affecting movie that might not scream “Oscar” but feels as one of the year’s very best. I’m expecting Awkwafina to win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical, which will boost the Oscar talk around The Farewell and since it is a solid contender for a Best Original Screenplay, I wouldn’t be surprised if it also nabs one acting and a Best Picture noms also. The AMPAS might feels nominating Gerwig’s Little Women only is not enough to support female directors…! But let’s not forget they already have an “Asian tale” locked for a Best Picture nomination – Parasite!
The last tier! I still don’t think Joker will be able to land a Best Picture nomination. It’s a far too uncomfortable movie for a regular person to watch and I would say the movie’s biggest weapon is Joaquin Phoenix’s performance – which they can recognize and go nuts for in Best Actor category. I’m not ignoring the fact it has already made more than $ 1Billion worldwide, but there’s a genre bias around super-hero movies (although Joker doesn’t feel a super-hero movie!) and let’s not forget more conservative people hated the movie… that said, I doubt it might get enough #1 votes in order to get a Best Picture nod, but I still can see a scenario it can happen! Then, The Two Popes is a pain in the a** for me…! It’s the kind of movie I see the Academy loving really hard, but it is a movie that pales in comparison to The Irishman greatness or Marriage Story emotional punch (the other Netflix’s big players). The Two Popes is a statement about modern religion and it is so well-acted and the screenplay is so sharp that I can see the Academy going just like HFPA did in the Golden Globes… But the movie’s buzz seems to be fading and Popes doesn’t feel undeniable for a Best Picture nod. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is one of the most sweet and moving movies of the year and it offers a different take on a cinematic biopic – the central figure has a supporting part! During TIFF, the movie sounded like an obvious Best Picture contender, but lost buzz during the Fall season and Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted are its best chances at some Oscar love… Still, some might feel personally touched by Mr. Rogers nostalgia and give this one their #1 vote, so I won’t erase this one from the list. As for Bombshell… I was expecting the movie’s reception was a bit warmer and the double of the box-office numbers, given the talent involved and the enthusiastic love it got from SAG. Still, maybe the acting pedigree and the recent #MeToo movement elevate Bombshell to “relevant” status, but I don’t see it being enough people’s number #1 movie of the year…! The last contender I’m considering is Avengers: Endgame. Not because I truly believe it can pull a Best Picture nomination, but there’s no way to close our eyes to Disney’s massive campaign for the last Avengers installment! Not only it was a critically acclaimed action movie, but Endgame is also the highest-grossing movie in history and a cultural phenomenon – but its supersized scale failed to build the early buzz Black Panther has managed to build, in spite of being the most emotionally resonant Marvel Cinematic Universe movie!
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