I'm one of those who believes in Da 5 Bloods Oscar chances... so, as you can see, I'm predicting a Best Director nomination for Spike Lee - not only has the AMPAS unlocked some love for him and his work recently (BlacKkKlansman), but I'm sure the movie will have a heavy awards campaign from Netflix. Don't get me wrong: I do think Lee deserves the nomination, since Da 5 Bloods is fueled by the energy Lee instilates in the movie (and it is more ambitious filmmaking than his Oscar nominated work in BlacKkKlansman's). David Fincher also directs another big Oscar contender coming from the "Netflix factory" - Mank, the story about the many struggles to get the classic Citizen Kane made and released. Not a lot of news about this project until today (it got an official instagram page it seems), but given the talent involved and the way Fincher was able to balance style/narrative/acting in both his previous Best Director nominated works (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Social Network), I've high hopes for Mank and I believe it might be the vehicle that earns Fincher his long-deserved Best Director Oscar win. Another buzzy name this season is Chloe Zhao - from 2017/18 indie gem The Rider, to this year's Nomadland and next year's MCU's The Eternals, she's on a roll these days. She sure has eye for detail and for moody narrative, so it's no surprise to have her in this lineup given the fact Frances McDormand will rise the profile of her upcoming Nomadland! Plus, because of last year's backlash because of the lack of recognition of female auteurs during the awards season, I believe Zhao might benefit from this specific moment in the cinematic industry. Described by some as a love letter to journalists and the power of press and youth, The French Dispatch looks as ambitious (if not more) as The Grand Budapest Hotel and since Wes Anderson is a master of detail and he's known to find the balance between his grand visual style and his narratives, I believe he's a strong contender for Best Director (and he broke his Best Director Oscarless record back in 2014/15 with The Grand Budapest Hotel). As for the fifith spot... I really was divided between Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Paul Greengrass (News of the World) and Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)... but since we still have no big details about Greengrass' upcoming western and West Side Story feels shaky due to the possibility of being delayed for 2021 (outside of the 2021 Oscar eligibility period), I bet on Chung for his immigration drama, Minari, which was the most acclaimed movie at Sundance this year.
As for Stephen Karam for his directorial debut The Humans - he's a Tony Award-winning playwright and he's directing the adaptation of his own play, which gives me the feeling he's a safe bet, but... not every playwright makes a successful transition to behind the camera. Still, the source material is quite good and A24 is backing the project, with the giant (awards thristy) Scott Rudin amongst the producers. Eliza Hittman could well break the Best Director race with her raved Sundance drama Never Rarely Sometimes Always - not only the movie is good, but it's also about one of major female issues in America - but the AMPAS is a sexist organization and Zhao is the female frontrunner this year and I believe there's no way they'll have room for 2 female directors (yet)... plus, the movie might well have peaked too soon in the season! As for newcomer Shaka King - Judas and the Black Messiah looks amazing and I believe he might well be a major breakout in this cinematic year, but I decided to keep him under the radar instead of betting on him.
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