Academy Awards 2021 nominees predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role (1st ROUND)

Since I'm a gentleman, it was "ladies first!" matter, but now it's time to analyse the Best Actor in a Leading Role contenders.

Right now, Sir Anthony Hopkins leads this race with his performance as Anthony in The Father, an aging man who refuses the assistance of his own daughter while he struggles with his own reality as dementia starts to mess with his mind, but it seems these little description is not rich enough to describe his layered character! The final result is one of the most acclaimed performances of Hopkins' long career - his work is described as "unforgettable", "astonishing" or "stunning" and it seems hard to have another performance able to match Hopkins' this year. Yet, I'm sensing Daniel Kaluuya might be some serious competition as Fred Hampton in the upcoming Judas and the Black Messiah. In case you've watched the movie's trailer, you can't deny how he fills the screen with charisma in what might well be an astonishing dynamite performance! Plus, having such a figure as Fred Hampton as an Oscar nominated acting portrayal sure sends the message the AMPAS want to share in the light of the #AllLivesMatter days. Third place goes to Gary Oldman, the star of the movie I'm expecting to become the Oscar frontrunner across the board - David Fincher's Mank, a movie about the writing and production process of Citizen Kane, with Oldman playing Herman J. Mankiewicz. Why can it be so baity for a Best Actor nom? Mankiewicz AKA Mank was said to be a charming man, but his life was a scandal itself, a neurotic drinker and a compulsive gambler... Sounds Oscar baity, right? And since the AMPAS has already learned how to love Oldman after Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Oscar nom) and The Darkest Hour (Oscar win), I'm counting on an easy nomination for him - plus, it seems Mank is the top priority for Netflix for an awards run/campaign this year. Next, Delroy Lindo for playing a Vietnam veteran haunted by the ghosts from the war - the star of the latest Spike Lee's "joint", Lindo is considered to have delivered one of the greatest acting performances of the year in Da 5 Bloods and Netflix has already announced they intend to campaign for him for Best Actor... which means they will also campaign for Da 5 Bloods in general, which only raises Lindo's Oscar hopes. The last spot was a though one: I had to decide between Steven Yeun (Minari) and Tom Hanks (News of the World). So, I went for Yeun, because I believe A24 decided to wait before releasing Minari in the hopes of an awards run - last year, they released The Farewell far too soon, and then they picked Uncut Gems as their campaign priority at last minute, but the movie was released far too late. I think A24 is trying to find a middle ground for Lee Isaac Chung's Sundance champion, just like they did with Moonlight (and since the Oscars will be so late this year, Minari will be released later). Since Yeun received plenty of critical acclaim for his role as the patriarch of a Korean family chasing the American dream and since he got that atrocious snubs from major precursors for his performance in Burning (2018)... I believe his time as come and he has the right movie.

So, Tom Hanks is #6 because it took him 19 years in order to get Oscar nominated again and it took him a truly undeniable performance to break his "Oscar curse". This year he plays a man traveling the wild west to bring news to townspeople who gets involved in the rescue of a young girl and then bounds with her in Paul Greengrass' News of the World - it might well be a juicy part in a major Oscar player, but then again Hanks has already been snubed too many times for great performances in order to give me enough confidence to put him in the TOP 5 (Captain Phillips, Saving Mr. Banks, Bridge of Spies, Sully and The Post, all Hanks misses in the 2010's). Up next, an almost unknown: Kingsley Ben-Adir, who plays Macolm X in Regina King's One Night in Miami. The movie got plenty of critical acclaim back in Venice Film Festival and Toronto International Film Festival and the ensemble acting was one of the movie's strongest points. Still Ben-Adir was singled-out as the best in show. It's a movie that discusses racial issues in America and the road to success as an African-American, which makes me believe the AMPAS will pay attention to the movie (to say the least) considering the times we live today - so, a Best Actor nomination is possible, but might be hard to get. As for Sacha Baron Cohen, who plays Abbie Hoffman, the political and social activist/anarchist, in The Trial of the Chicago 7... I feel he might get lost in the middle of the huge ensemble cast awards campaign. Cohen can be a brilliant actor with the right material and I still have hard feelings for having him snubed for 2006's Borat, but will he be able to really stand out from the entire cast? Will he have enough time/clips to shine and rise above other Netflix contenders (Oldman and Lindo)? Will Netflix be able to land Oscar campaigns in the above the line categories for so many contenders? So many uncertainties right now...! The star of one of the sensations of Toronto International Film Festival 2020, Mads Mikkelsen re-teams with director Thomas Vinterberg for Druk / Another Round, a movie about male friendship, aging/midlife crisis and alcohol... I know it sounds like a Danish take on The Hangover, but it seems the movie deals with these themes with a very sensitive touch and Mikkelsen is said to excel himself in this one. He's the star, he has the most emotional parts and I believe some people think he deserved a better awards run for Jagten / The Hunt (2012). I believe: if Mikkelsen is able to get a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, then the "Mikkelsen Oscar nomination run" might take off! Last, but not the least, Michael Fassbender in the comedic role of Thomas Rongen who gets to train the American Samoa soccer team after being considered the worst soccer team in the world in Next Goal Wins. It's a Taika Waititi movie that was taken under the Searchlight wing... and while both Next Goal Wins and The French Dispatch still have no release dates, I believe Next Goal Wins has better chances to get an Oscar qualifying outside of the film festival circuit and still do good with awards (considering the Waititi fever these days). Plus, Fassbender is a terrific actor and I'm very curious to see him taking on a more comedic mood... but the AMPAS is not very found of sports comedies...! Let's wait and see!