I took a lot of time putting some thoughts about Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress races, because I feel they are extremely competitive this year, specially in the leading actress field.
There's also the case of Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon, which I feel that might flip category, but the first promotional material suggest they will push her in Best Supporting Actress race, despite her being a central character AKA co-lead in the movie's narrative. Still, while I believe Gladstone would have no problem getting in Best Actress, she received the kind of reviews that elevate her to "potential Oscar winner" category and, in this way, Best Supporting Actress feels safer for Apple's search of gold. Still, I have to accept category fraud does exist and it's likely Gladstone will be one of those cases. UPDATE: Lily Gladstone will be campaigned in Best Leading Actress!
Directly from the Best Supporting Actress category, Lily Gladstone entered the Best Actress race with a huge bang! Most Oscar pundits were beting on her... for Best Supporting Actress. In Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon, she is a central figure in the movie's narrative and she was described as "the heart of the movie" in some reactions from Cannes. In fact, she got rave reviews - the kind of reviews Oscar winning performances get! Right now, she has the performance, she has the movie and she has the right personal narrative! In the Best Actress field, there's a contender that has been in the Oscar talk ever since her movie premiered in Cannes: Anatomy of a Fall's (the Palme d'Or winner) star Sandra Hüller is not an unknown name in the industry and she's a very respectable name in the European cinema world. With previous notable credits such as 2006's Requiem and 2016's Toni Erdmann and some "bonus points" for also starring in Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest, I consider Hüller to be in a really sweet spot at the beginning of the awards campaign. Another critically lauded performance is Emma Stone's in Poor Things (the Golden Lion winner at this year's edition of Venice Film Festival) - hailed by many critics as the best performance of her career so far and considering the Academy has already showed her some love (3 acting nominations, 1 win) I believe she's pretty much locked for a nod again. The fact Emma Stone has Searchlight behind Poor Things also locks (practically) it in the Best Picture nominees shortlist (Searchlight always manages to have at least one movie competing for the Oscar of Best Picture), which also boosts her chances
As for Greta Lee (Past Lives), I consider her to be stronger than most Oscar predictions folks say: A24 got a SAG-AFTRA interin agreement for Past Lives actors to promote the film, which means Lee will be one of the few actresses in the campaign trail since the very beginning. Since A24 has become a major awards players in recent years, I guess promoting Greta Lee critically acclaimed performance in one of the most critically acclaimed movies of the year will be (actually) easy, despite how subtle and internal her performance is.
The fifth spot doesn't feel locked for me right now, unlike many other Oscar folks' opinions: Carey Mulligan as Felicia Montalegre for Maestro. The AMPAS has already overlooked Mulligan way too many times for great performances (Never Let Me Go, Shame, Wildlife and She Said), which makes me think she's not an instant Oscar draw... but this year seems different: Maestro was an highly antecipated movie that met the high expectations when it premiered in Venice; it's a biopic; and it will be one of Netflix's top priorities during campaigning/award season. So, considering the strong reviews Mulligan and the movie received, she's looks solid. The 6th spot... I say Natalie Portman, who's said to be great in Todd Hayne's May December - his films tend to have great female parts and Portman tends to excel in dramatic parts. But will Netflix (one of the big villains of the SAG-AFTRA strike) will be able to get TWO actresses in the Best Actress final nominees shortlist? Truth is: when the awards bodies go for Natalie Portman, they go really hard for hard. Let's see... I am pretty curious how will she do.
Barbie is a huge cultural, critical and commercial success and Margot Robbie is excellent in the title character's role! I fear the character might not look "serious" enough for the AMPAS members to take it as seriously as they should, specially in a year this field has so many "prestigious turns" in prestige pictures... Still, Greta Gerwig has managed to land Oscar nominations for Best Actress for her leading ladies in past films, will Barbie be the first she won't? No matter what, I believe Margot Robbie has an Oscar nom guaranteed... as a producer! As for Fantasia Barrino, who stars the musical adaptation of The Color Purple - she has a fantastic role, with a fantastic song that might well be her "Oscar clip" and she has already received great reviews for her take on this same role in a Broadway production some years ago! But will Barrino (in her film debut) be able to break such a competitive race as Best Actress? The film will need to get RAVES in order for Barrino to benefit from the film's Best Picture buzz!
Sofia Coppola has yet to land an Oscar nomination for a leading lady of hers - a female auteur who writes and directs great female parts but only came close 20 years ago when Scarlett Johansson ALMOST got nominated for Lost In Translation (2003)... but Cailee Spaeny, the star of Priscilla managed to win the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at this year's edition of Venice Film Festival and this prize has become a strong indicator for a future Best Actress nomination... But the race is so competitive and Spaeny is really young that I fear she gets all the Breakthrough Performance prizes instead of Best Actress ones.
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