With the delay of Dune: Part II release, I had to re-do my Oscar predictions in all categories. The thing is: I wasn't able to re-think and re-write that fast and I failed my personal deadline (before Fall film festival season) and one thing that I noted was how influenced my last predictions changes were because of the reactions coming from Venice and Telluride. TIFF remains the biggest test for most Fall Oscar hopefuls since it's the biggest festival happening in American/Canadian soil, which means it will be attended by many critics from critics associations in US, the ones who are actually responsible for the start of the awards season (and for the Oscar buzz-creation process).
Personally, I consider Oscar predictions folks tend to overestimate the Fall film festival buzz - we are in that time of the year where EVERYTHING is crowned an "Oscar player", but if we recall the recent previous years, early releases can do really good in the awards trail (and even better than a lot of later releases), so they shouldn't be underestimated.
Still, here are my predictions:
- BEST PICTURE
Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon keeps the lead in the Best Picture due to its prestige value (iconic director, big acting names, Apple's top priority for Oscar campaign) after that one screening at Cannes Film Festival that earned it rave reviews and instant Oscar buzz. An epic western with a heart, signed by one of the greatest directors alive - it's locked. Then, it's Oppenheimer, a WWII biopic coming from the mind of Christopher Nolan that turned to be both a critical success and a huge box-office hit grossing more than $850M worldwide - and just like Killers of the Flower Moon it is a traditional Oscar bait film and it is also likely to be the most Oscar nominated movie of the year considering it's a big player in every category (it's the one which most benefited from Dune: Part II delay!). I believe Past Lives is a stronger contender than most of us might think... I expect critics to push this one really bad and if enough AMPAS members get to see it, I believe it will get enough #1 votes, not only because it appeals to the indie artists, but because it is a movie that grows on people after they get to see it. Billion dollar Barbie is also on the top of the race thanks to the simple fact of being a cinematic phenomenon that also works as a smart satire about gender role, feminism and the search for the meaning of one's life - I believe Greta Gerwig will have her 3rd Best Picture nominated directed movie in a row. The fifth spot goes to Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things, a movie that has a promising premise and an amazing trailer and it is being received with enthusiastic reviews at Venice Film Festival. It is said it is a perfect blend of style and substance, with Lanthimos in full command of his directorial duties and Emma Stones excels in the leading role - seems quite solid to me! The Zone of Interest was met with critical acclaim at Cannes back in May and A24 has set a December release for the latest Glazer's drama and it has secured a Fall film festival circuit showing (Telluride, TIFF, New York and BFI London), which means they will push this one in pursuit of awards glory... and the AMPAS loves Holocaust movies, so I believe it will be an easy campaign. As for The Holdovers, it seems like a sentimental movie, simple in its execution, but easy to love due to the sensibility of its approach... Alexander Payne might have some controversial personal moments on its Hollywood resume, but he does have the ability to handle sensitive subjects and I feel The Holdovers can appeal (directly) to those who went for Manchester by the Sea some years ago (and Focus is great in the campaigning trail). As for NEON, they have Palme d'Or winner Anatomy of a Fall (Anatomie d'une chute), which has been on the film festival trail since it first premiered back in Cannes - and considering the glowing reviews and the tepid Michael Mann's Ferrari reviews, I believe NEON will champion Justine Triet's movie to Best Picture Oscar glory. Wes Anderson's Asteroid City might not be everyone's cup of tea, but it has a very passionate fanbase, it has a solid box-office performance and some critics even claim it is (one of) Anderson's best movie(s) ever - but will it get enough #1 votes? I believe it can! Focus Features will have to campaign it, but it sure is a natural alluring contender for the below the line categories (visually, it is a strikingly beautiful film), Wes Anderson is quite popular within the writers branch and the ensemble cast is composed by big stars, which will call the attention of the actors branch. Last spot, I picked Netflix's Rustin, because people seemed pleasantly surprised the movie is far superior than just an acting showcase for Colman Domingo - a biopic about a civil right personality that's well written, well acted and well directed is a simple but efficient combo for Oscar success.
As for Bradley Cooper's Maestro, I believe it will lose its place to Rustin, but it will be an awards vehicle for both Cooper and Mulligan in the acting fields (plus cinematography, costume design and makeup teams)... I can see Netflix promoting both movies, but I feel some grey clouds circling over Maestro. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse might well be the best film I've seen all year (so far) and I believe it won't make the Best Picture final cut because it is an animated feature. The same thinking applies to The Boy and the Heron. As for The Color Purple.... it is a big question mark for me: I feel it can flop or maybe it can get delayed because of the strikes... I don't feel confident and I don't know why (the trailer looks great, but...). Saltburn is said to be too wild to nab enough #1 votes from Academy members, so I don't expect it to get in Best Picture - maybe acting and screenplay. The Bikeriders got positive reviews, but they are underwhelming positive. Next Goal Wins might be a welcome sports-comedy/drama... Yes, I won't ignore Taika Waititi's talents behind the camera (just remember the amazing Jojo Rabbit!). Ben Affleck's Air seems to be losing a lot of traction lately... has Amazon given up on this one? I thought it would be its #1 campaign priority. The Killer is a "technical categories thing". And Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret. seems like one of those beloved early releases that will never seem major Oscar flowers despite its quality (unfortunately).
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