Academy Awards 2026 nominees predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role & Best Actress in a Leading Role (1st Round)
BEST ACTOR
Mr. Day-Lewis is back from retirement and he looks astonishing in Anemone's trailer (what seems to be a visceral family drama) - and there's no way to not to predict him... it's the return of the king. Fresh from last year's Oscar nomination, Timothée Chalamet keeps getting prestige project after prestige project and he's the lead in Josh Safdie's feature film solo effort (Marty Supreme), which promises to be a charismatic character in a movie that looks like a major Oscar player (and Mr. Chalamet not only is talented, but he has momentum). Since I predict Rental Family to be Searchlight's big play at the Oscar game (and maybe even TIFF's winner), Brendan Fraser emerges as a natural contender here - not only he is a recent Oscar winner in this category (which start some kind of career renaissance for him), but his performance also looks quite moving (and he's blessed with the gift of on-screen empathy). Since Neon seems to not hold back this season, I expect Wagner Moura to receive his flowers for The Secret Agent - he has already won Best Actor at Cannes Film Festival and the movie is expected to be Brazil's International Film submission, which clearly puts him in advantage (plus, I expect him to do good with the HFPA aka Golden Globes and I can see some awards potential for his film in the above the line categories at the Oscars). Last spot... I go with Denzel Washington for his raved performance in Spike Lee's Highest 2 Lowest - and yes, the movie is getting a weak release treatment, but critics loved it and the Academy (and SAG) love Washington so I expect another Roman J. Israel, Esq. Still, I can see any other contender taking that 5th spot (even DiCaprio for One Battle After Another that I didn't put here), specially George Clooney for his comeback in Baumbach's Jay Kelly (where he plays a movie star, something AMPAS tends to love) and Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine (Oscar voters love when an "unserious" actor crafts a career best work all of the sudden in an Oscar bait film). Despite the average level of his dual performance, I need to note the buzz around Sinners might bring Michael B. Jordan an Oscar nomination.
Renate Reinsve received some of the best reviews of her career for Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value, a movie that was a big sensation at Cannes this year and it has already been selected as Norway's official Oscar submission for Best International Film - at this point, I feel Reinsve is a safe (nearly locked) contender for a nomination (plus, the fact the AMPAS didn't nominate her for The Worst Person in the World did not age well). Then, Julia Roberts in what might be her comeback to prestige film and big roles - she's the star of Luca Guadagnino's tale of obsession named After the Hunt and it looks like she has one of the meatiest roles in years. As for Rose Byrne, she's long overdue for a first Oscar nomination and she might have finally found the right vehicle with the motherhood drama If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You, for which she received the prestigious Best Actress prize at Berlin International Film Festival - and I expect critics to keep the buzz alive for her. June Squibb had the chance to lead a dramedy about a supposed Holocaust survivor in Eleanor The Great and the press loved her performance... if nominated the AMPAS would be naming her the oldest actress to receive a competitive Oscar nod and it seems Sony is really pushing this movie during awards season. Last spot goes for Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good and while I fear she might miss it considering she got in last year, truth is I was also concerned last year, but the buzz around the movie was too strong to let her down. We also have Lucy Liu trying a career comeback with the acclaimed drama Rosemead, Jessie Buckley as Shakespeare's wife going through grief in Hamnet (despite the Academy is not embracing movies from this time period in history, lately) and Jennifer Lawrence going crazy for Die, My Love - these three performances all look perfect Oscar roles on paper, let's see their reception and how campaigns materialize.
Note: NEVER underestimate Emma Stone, so she's being considered for Bugonia.
Comments