Here's my nominees predictions list for the Academy Award of Best Picture:
After Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle brings a "one man show", a veridic story of a mountain climber who cut his own arm in order to save his life. 127 Hours received a lot of critical praise and the Academy loves extraordinary true stories, but the major awards haven't put 127 Hours between their Best Picture nominees, what may be a problem. This may look a little bit like Sean Penn's Into the Wild (it was snubed in the major categories in its year Oscar race), but Danny Boyle's latest work benefits from an happy ending, the suspense factor of the movie, a terrific performance from James Franco and the fact that no one has already forgotten Slumdog Millionaire. 127 Hours is in a good way to get a Best Picture nod, but it may fail due to the strong competition.
The sensation of Venice Film Festival, Black Swan was the latest movie from the director Darren Aronofsky (Requiem for a Dream; The Wrestler). The movie has been collected raves since Venice and it's getting stronger in the Oscar race, being between the nominees of all the major awards - what was a "ugly duck" in the begining of the awards race is now a beautiful "Swan" that got all the love from the critics and that's doing well in box-office. In fact, the movie is a study about a baillet dancer named Nina in a thriller format and reviews says that this one is captivating, with a great direction, great acting from an ensemble cast (Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, Vicent Cassel and Barbara Hershey) and great technical aspects! The movie got the record of nominations in the Critics' Choice Awards, being nominated in 12 categories, including Best Picture. It is also nominated for the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, Online Film Critics Awards, Independent Film Awards and for a lot of critics' associations awards (winning in some of them). Black Swan seems so close to get a Best Picture nod, that's fair to say that it is guaranteed.
It may not be fair call it "a movie about boxing", because I consider it "a movie about a family with that sport as the scenario". Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo and Amy Adams bring magic to this drama with captivating and shining performances, being directed by the acclaimed David O. Russell who has done maybe his most commercial and "Oscar-kind" movie. In fact, The Fighter has been collecting raves and it has been sucessful in the box-office. A lot of nods and awards were given to the Picture, including 6 Golden Globe nods and a lot of "statues" to the cast members. The Academy loves the boxing genre (do you remember Rocky or Million Dollar Baby?) and The Fighter got enough critical and commercial sucess to be between the 10 Best Picture nominees.
Christopher Nolan created another critical acclaimed blockbuster and the sensation-movie of this Summer. Starring an amazing cast with Leonardo DiCaprio, Marion Cotillard, Ellen Page, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Tom Hardy and Michael Caine between others, Inception was described as something very inovative, smart and thrilling, a movie about dreams that became a kind of "dream movie" and a technical masterpiece. In spite of a little part of the movie's heat has gone, Inception remains in all the audiences memory and it's a hard movie to forget! A place between the 10 nominees is almost sure for Inception, which deserves such a honour. A strong contender for sure with the potential to be a potential "surprise Best Picture winning movie".
The small indie production with a $4 million budget that received all the critics love this Summer after an acclaimed presence in Sundance Film Festival and became the that film scored the highest average gross in the year to date is one of the "guaranteed" this year's Oscar race nominees. With a respectful cast composed by Annette Bening, Julianne Moore, Mark Ruffalo, Mia Wasikowska and Josh Hutcherson that got raves for the great acting, The Kids Are All Right is a light-comedy-movie and a portray of a modern family in such an honest way that the Academy almost surely will love and give an Oscar nomination for the Best Picture category. BUT it seems that it didn't get a big love from the critics prize if we are talking about the Best Picture category, but Cholodenko and the producers may thank God for having 10 possible nominees instead of 5.
I must admit that I had no hope in the Oscar potencial of The King's Speech some weeks ago, so I was surprised when I watched the trailer and read some reviews and I must say that my first thoughts were wrong. The King's Speech seems more than a portray of a king and his speeching problems, it seems something more, the portray of a man. This movie was very well-received in Toronto Film Festival, winning the top prize, features an amazing cast, with Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham Carter in the leading roles, and got raves since then, having the pedrigree that's necessary to be a Best Picture Oscar nominee and, maybe, a winner. It have been holding really well in the awards, wich surely will help the movie to get a lot of nods from the Academy. The King's Speech will easily get a place between the 10 nominees for Best Picture and it's a respectable contender for a win!
David Fincher has already brought us some great movies like Se7en, Fight Club, Zodiac or The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and, this year, he brings a movie about the most popular social network of nowadays: the Facebook. In fact, The Social Network got both commercial and critical sucess, being described as "the best movie of the year" by some critics. Fincher's direction was described as brilliant and as so were the acting and the screenplay. It has everything it needs to be between the 10 Best Picture nominees and a win will be a fight between the Facebook movie and The King's Speech, with The Social Network winning the first battles taking home the major critics' awards (like New York and LA's critics' awards of Best Picture) and being nominated for 9 Critics' Choice Awards, 6 Online Film Critics, 6 Golden Globes, 2 Screen Actors Guild Awards and being the winner of the National Board of Review of Best Picture, Best Director (David Fincher), Best Actor (Jesse Eisenberg) and Best Adapted Screenplay (Aaron Sorkin). The Social Network has a nod for Best Picture guaranteed at the Oscars and a strong possibility of getting the major golden statue home.
Toy Story 3 is the 5th highest-grossing film of all the time and it's also a critical acclaimed: an animated feature that has a place between the 10 nominees for the Oscar of Best Picture guaranteed as well as the Oscar of Best Animated Feature. The movie tell us the adventures of a group of toys who are abandoned by their owner when he goes to college. But it isn't only the story, the comedy-adventure style, the deep and honest emotions and the message of Toy Story 3 that make it a strong contender, it's all about one thing: everybody loved Toy Story and Toy Story 2. The Academy loves to be a child sometimes and children (and grown-ups) loved this one!
It's impossible not to consider True Grit as a strong Academy Award of Best Picture contender. The Coen Brothers (Fargo; No Country for Old Men; A Serious Man) are Academy's darlings and there's something written in the stars that says "Coen Brothers movies are bad only once in each century". True Grit has everything to be a an Oscar nominee in the Best Picture category: the Cohen brothers as directors and screenwriters, a cast with respectable actors (Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon and Josh Brolin), an amazing breakthrough and star-turning performance from the newcomer Hailee Steinfeld, critics' prize and the awards' attentions. The movie is also doing fine in box-office and it's a true western movie, surely the best western since The Unforgiven and it is as good as the first movie adaptation of the novel, which starred John Wayne in the leading role. True Grit has a place between the Academy's nominees for the Best Picture category surely.
Winter's Bone is another indie production that may have its place between the 10 Best Picture Oscar nominees. Receiving raves in Sundance Film Festival (winning the Grand Jury Prize and the Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award) and in Berlin Film Festival, Winter's Bone has enough attention to keep on the running for the Best Picture, being loved by critics and critics' prizes, and has the outstanding performances of the cast (specially from Jennifer Lawrence, John Hawkes and Dale Dickey), the refined direction of Debra Granik (2003's Down to the Bone) and a good screenplay based on a well-known novel (a young woman's journey to find her dad in order to protect all she most love). Winter's Bone deserve a Best Picture nod, because it is a true deserver of such an honour, I hope the Academy didn't go blind to ignore it!
in serious consideration: The Town
in serious consideration: The Town
in consideration: Another Year; Blue Valentine;
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