Who's leading the Oscar race at the moment?

Well, Oscars are coming and there are a lot of contenders for every category. Some awards' nominees annoucements gave to the audiences a little perfume of which will be some of the Academy's choices, but the Academy likes to make surprises sometimes (like Maggie Gyllenhaal nomination for Crazy Heart last year).
So, there are some lists of the placement of some contenders in the Oscar race:

BEST PICTURE
At the moment, The Social Network is leading the race in such a clearly way that it's almost sure that it will that the Best Picture Oscar home. But there's The King's Speech and Inception eyeing the top Academy's prize. All the other nominees will be there, but they know that they have almost no chance to win in the Best Picture category. Animal Kingdom, The Town or Another Year may have a chance to be placed between the 10 Academy's favs too.
1 - The Social Network
2 - The King's Speech
3 - Inception
4 - Toy Story 3
5 - Winter's Bone
6 - 127 Hours
7 - True Grit
8 - Black Swan
9 - The Kids Are All Right
10 - The Fighter

BEST DIRECTOR
If there's a battle in this category it's between Fincher and Nolan, but it would be silly due to the fact that Fincher has already the prize guaranteed. Fincher was already nominated in this category for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and has a really strong body of work and some of his masterpieces are a "cult movies". Fincher is taking the 1st place because of the love for "The Facebook Movie" and it's almost written that he will win. Ethan and Joel Cohen (True Grit) and Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) may also have a chance to be nominated in this category.
1 - David Fincher (The Social Network)
2 - Christopher Nolan (Inception)
3 - Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
4 - Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
5 - Debra Granik (Winter's Bone)

BEST LEADING ACTOR
Colin Firth leads the Oscar of Best Actor race, being the most likely winner not only because of his amazing and raved performance as the King George VI but also due to the fact that he was nominated for an Oscar last year for an incredible performance in Tom Ford's A Single Man. Firth is getting all the major awards' nods and a lot of wins in the most important ones, but it seems that the a fresh face named Jesse Eisenberg is becoming closer to get the Oscar. But Firth keeps as the strongest contender due to the fact that, in spite of an Oscar worthy performance by Eisenberg, the Academy has something against seeing a "young actor" winning the Oscar of Best Leading Actor (the youngest actor who win this was Adrien Brody for The Pianist when he was 29 years old). Jeff Bridges (True Grit) and Javier Bardem (Biutiful) may have a chance to get a nod instead of Ryan Gosling (who failed a precious SAG nod).

1 - Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

2 - Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
3 - James Franco (127 Hours)
4 - Robert Duvall (Get Low)
5 - Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)

BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Bening vs. Portman: the battle. Both actresses deserve the Oscar but for different reasons: Bening is overdue for a win after 3 nods (including a Best Actress one for the acclaimed American Beauty) and she received really good reviews for her performance as a lesbian mother in The Kids Are All Right; Portman delivered a "performance of a lifetime" and received raves for it and may have the best performance by an actress of the year. It's so hard to choose... But the Academy usually snubs awesome performances in order to recognize a weaker performance from an actor/actress with a good career (and yes, I'm talking about Sandra Bullock for example), so Bening would be in advantage, a tiny one, but I think that Portman as just taken the lead of the race. Noomi Rapace (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right) and Lesley Manville (Another Year) have already a chance to get nominated if Williams miss it (but Manville has a big problem about category placement that made her fail some important nods).
1 - Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

2 - Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
3 - Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
4 - Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
5 - Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale will receive the Oscar! There's nothing else to say if there stills some justice in this world. After a lot of nods and wins, Bale has his Oscar guaranteed for his performance in The Fighter. Rush was already recognized. Garfield is really young and he will have his time in the future. Ruffalo's performance isn't Oscar worthy enough. Hawkes will be lucky if his performance won't be in the shadow of his costar one (Jennifer Lawrence's). Bill Murray (Get Low), Jeremy Renner (The Town) and Sam Rockwell (Conviction) have also a strong chance of getting a nod too.
1 - Christian Bale (The Fighter)
2 - Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
3 - Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
4 - Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
5 - John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This year, the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race is almost umpredictable. In fact, it seems that there isn't a "much better than the others" performance and the one who fits that description missed a SAG nod (I'm talking about Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom). So, I would say that Helena Bonham Carter and Melissa Leo are in advantage in the race, not only because of their performance's quality but also for their movies sucess. Bonham Carter benefits from the Oscar quality of The King's Speech and Leo chances improved because of the great reception of The Fighter and for being able to shine a lot in a movie with bright performances. Hailee Steinfeld benefits from True Grit's sucess and from a "category fraud", once I would place her as leading actress, while Jacki Weaver will get a nod only because of her performance's quality and not also for Animal Kingdom's Oscar buzz. Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole) or even Lesley Manville (Another Year) may take a place in the Academy's 5 choosen.
1 - Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
1 - Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
3 - Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
4 - Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
5 - Amy Adams (The Fighter)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another unpredictable race... The Kids Are All Right has a strong message and it's a really well-written screenplay with a very good dialogue, but so it's The King's Speech... On the other hand, we have Inception who brings to us original concepts and an already-snubed screenwritter Christopher Nolan (who failed an Oscar win for Memento, unfairly). But, at the moment, it seems that The King's Speech is leading the race due to the critics love and the fact that may be used as a consolation prize if The King's Speech won't win Best Picture. Movies like Animal Kingdom, The Fighter or Biutiful have a strong chance to be between the Academy's chosen.
1 - David Seidler for The King's Speech
2 - Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg for The Kids Are All Right
3 - Christopher Nolan for Inception
4 - Mike Leigh for Another Year
5 - Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and John J. McLaughlin for Black Swan

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
It not hard to predict who will win in this category: The Social Network screenwritter will take it! All the nominees deserve this recognition and all of them would be strong contenders to this Oscar if Sorkin wouldn't write such a good screenplay for "The Facebook Movie". Movies like The Town and Rabbit Hole have a good chance to be part of the five nominees.
1 - Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network
2 - Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini for Winter's Bone
3 - Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle for 127 Hours
4 - Michael Ardnt for Toy Story 3
5 - Ethan Cohen and Joel Cohen for True Grit