BEST PICTURE
4. Life of Pi
Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty, they are all running for a Best Picture win this year, but we all know there's only one possible winner. In normal conditions, Argo would be the natural frontrunner and would get an easy Best Picture win, but Ben Affleck missed a crucial Best Director nod, turning the Oscar something into something "interesting" from the worst point of view. Last time a movie won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination, we were in 1990 (I mean, I only would born in 1993) and Driving Miss Daisy took the major golden man home.
This year, I would point 5 major contenders for a Best Picture win, so, just have a look:
1.
My personal favorite Best Picture nominee after Beasts of the Southern Wild, a crowd-pleaser and a surprising major Oscar player (it nabed 8 Oscar nominations, which is a lot attending it is just a "simple" comedy-drama). It may haven't been a lot of Best Picture awards, but there's something we must have under serious consideration: it won the People's Choice Award of Best Film of Toronto International Film Festival (a award won by other Best Picture winners like The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire or American Beauty). In spite of not being the winner of this year's Golden Globe of Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, Silver Linings won the Critics' Choice Award of Best Comedy and it was nominated for (I would say "almost every") major awards (no DGA Award nod for O. Russell). More than just one of the biggest critical darlings of 2012, it is "The Feel-Good Movie" and audiences are simply in love for this one (and it is a box-office success and it is expected to gross around $100M). Silver Linings Playbook is competing in every major category (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing), which means a lot. In my opinion, SLP will be the same kind of surprising Best Picture winner Crash some years ago.
2.
Affleck's latest follow the idea of "movies can save the world" and this is something that may please the Academy, specially when you look at last year's Best Picture winner and you have The Artist (a love letter to silent/golden era cinema). Argo is a thriller, not just "a drama" and it grossed more than $100M at US box-office, so a win would be well-accepted by most audiences, but the movie's missing a key element: a Best Director nomination (atrocious snub for Ben Affleck). After a surprising support from PGA, DGA, SAG, Golden Globes and BAFTA Awards, who gave their top prizes to Argo, the Best Director snub seems to do not mean a lot in this race, but we can't forget that Academy members are not all the same people who voted for it in other major associations prizes. Plus, it may not do that well in other categories and I guess it would be strange having a Best Picture winner taking only one or two Oscars home: besides Best Picture, Argo best chances at a Oscar win live in Best Adapted Screenplay (with two major contenders like Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook competing in this same category), Best Editing and Best Original Score (I think Argo's score has been overrated, specially when there's Life of Pi's AMAZING score) categories.
3.
Lincoln's biggest advantage in Best Picture race is its subject: "equality". In spite of not being a big fan of the movie, I must admit Lincoln is quite inspiring and exposes some beautiful and well-intentioned ideas. While it didn't made much more than winning in the acting categories and some big awards in the screenplay field, Lincoln may be Spielberg's reason for a 3rd Best Director Oscar (I don't agree, but it stills a possibility) and since it is the most Oscar nominated movie of the year, it stills definitely in the battle for Best Picture. AMPAS voters used to love biopics more than everything else and Lincoln is a biopic specially created for Oscar game purpose. Plus, prediction folks generated huge Best Picture-winning Oscar buzz and the studio is making an agressive campaign around Lincoln... it is a one-to-watch, for sure!
4. Life of Pi
A visual wonder and one of the greatest cinematic experiences in years, Life of Pi may easily seduce enough Oscar voters with its greatness and emotional content. It's a beautiful movie and it is likely to get a Best Director win... and since Best Picture & Best Director are "brothers categories"...
5. Les Misérables
And what if the Academy decides to go for a musical? Fans of the show liked Tom Hooper's adaptation a lot. Les Miz won the Golden Globe of Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, beating "the future Best Picture according to me" Silver Linings Playbook, but just like Argo, Les Miz missed a Best Director Oscar nomination... things are complicated. Honestly, I don't actually believe it may win Best Picture, but I can't deny there are a lot of people crazy about this quite interesting adaptation of the epic stage musical.
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