Academy Awards 2013 winners predictions

BEST PICTURE

• Silver Linings Playbook

The crowd-pleaser that nabed 8 Oscar nominations in all the "major categories" (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay), which is a win per si, considering it is a "simple" comedy-drama. Winner of the People's Choice of Best Film of Toronto Film Festival, a critical darling and a box-office success ($98,6M and it keeps scoring): it may not have all the award recognition Argo received, but SLP has a heart and the Academy members already showed how much they are into this this one. It's not an obvious Best Picture winner prediction, but I don't see the AMPAS giving the Best Picture prize to a a-very-good-but-not-THAT-GREAT- thriller-movie without a Best Director nod (Argo) and since Lincoln is so "normal" and "so not Best Picture worthy" (from my point of view)... In fact, I believe if the Academy members go for SLP in other category than Best Actress, I believe they will go for it all way! I expect a silver lining for Silver Linings Playbook.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Ang Lee for Life of Pi

With the atrocious Oscar absents of Ben Affleck for Argo and Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty in the directing field, there's a major question: who will win? Bigelow won some big awards, but it was Affleck who took the major ones, but since they are both missing from the nominees shortlist it is hard to predict a winner since all the other nominees always lost for one of those I mentioned above. My bet goes for Ang Lee: Life of Pi is a visual wonder and it will score some Oscar in the technical categories and since Lee made the impossible by successfully transforming a beloved book into one of the most striking cinematic experiences (when a lot of people said it was impossible). I see Lee as the natural winner in this category, once Spielberg's work in Lincoln isn't that fantastic and Lincoln shouldn't go beyond a Best Actor win from my point of view. Some voices raised saying David O. Russell or Michael Haneke, but... I believe Lee will get the win he deserves.

BEST ACTOR

• Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln

Another amazing performance from Daniel Day-Lewis as the famous President of the USA. Day-Lewis got almost every existing award in the Best Actor category and winning his third Best Actor Oscar is almost a guarantee, becoming the first actors who wins an Oscar for a performance under Steven Spielberg's direction. Shame he's going to get his third one when Meryl Streep took decades in order to win hers', specially when there are other equally amazing Oscar-worthy performances in the nominees shortlist (like Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables or Joaquin Phoenix for The Master).

BEST ACTRESS

• Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook

First it was only Lawrence. Then it became Lawrence Vs Chastain. Now it is Lawrence Vs Chastain Vs Riva. My pick: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook. Why? 2012 was a great year for "JLaw", with the critical and box-office success of The Hunger Games and the warm, feel-good, Best Picture nominated (and contender for a win) Silver Linings Playbook. In the last one she plays a character who's simply Oscary: funny, dramatic, messy and CRAZY. Thanks to all the love and Oscar campaign around Silver Linings Playbook, Lawrence's performance gained a lot of visibility and since she took a Golden Globe, a SAG Award and a Critics' Choice Award between a lot of critics associations awards, I believe she has better chances than her respectable competitors. In fact, Lawrence must be proud for beating other amazing and also Oscar-deserving performances during awards season.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
• or Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actor category is by far the most interesting and hard to predict Oscar category of the year. We have Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master who collected a ton of critics associations awards and ended winning the Critics' Choice Award. Then, we have Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln who was an early favorite but all the buzz didn't translate into the expected award recognition, but he won the SAG Award for Outstanding Supporting Performance by an Actor. We also have Christoph Waltz for his delicious (co-lead) performance in Django Unchained, who won the Golden Globe and BAFTA Award for Best Supporting Actor but missed SAG and Critics' Choice Award noms. There's Robert De Niro amazing and touching career comeback in Silver Linings Playbook, who didn't win anything that relevant, but he's getting some crazy "last hour" buzz. And finally we have Alan Arkin for Argo, but just forget about him. Now, Lee Jones may win, but since Day-Lewis is going to take Best Actor and the AMPAS doesn't like Steven Spielberg directed acting performances, I think he won't win. Seymour Hoffman has an amazing respectful performance in The Master, but "respect" isn't the same as love, so I don't believe he'll win. Waltz is getting major awards, but he missed noms in other major ones and Django may be too bloody for more conservative minds, but he has a co-lead-promoted-as-supporting role and it's a hell of a showy charismatic performance. De Niro may win and I think he'll IF the Academy gives Silver Linings Playbook the Best Picture prize. Since I believe SLP will take home Best Picture, I predict a win for De Niro: it's a career comeback of one of the best actors working today, the Academy may not have an opportunity to give him a deserving third Oscar and his character is just extremely easy to love. Don't forget Christoph Waltz is a HUGE spoiler here...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables

Unless AMPAS members aren't fans of her "Oh, you sound so fake!" acceptance speeches during awards season, Hathaway is a sure bet in the Oscar predictions "game". Her performance as Fantine brought me to tears: it's a simply remarkable performance and the highlight of the whole movie. Hope her acceptance speech shows some humility and genuine gratitude (just ask Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman or even Jessica Chastain for some advice in the "acceptance speech" field).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

No matter what I would describe Zero Dark Thirty as "the most important movie of 2012" and the movie's screenplay is one of the reasons why I would say that. The movie explores some relevant subjects, shows some important messages and asks questions... We need more movies like this one and more people like Mark Boal working in the cinema business and I believe the Academy members agree and they'll vote for Boal once again. Some might say Django Unchained will win, but I just can say: I read somewhere Django's screenplay was described as "self-masturbatory" and could agree more (I simply love the movie and Quentin Tarantino, but it isn't the kind of screenplay for the AMPAS tastes, in my opinion). Amour may have a good shot, but it missed some important screenplay awards' noms, so...

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

One of the smartest Oscar campaign moves from The Weinstein Company was the release of a 30 minutes featurette of Silver Linings Playbook where it explores the way the movie brings the subject of mental illness, the personal feelings of David O. Russell during the making of the movie (it seems his son has some mental health issues) and the important contribution the movie gave for mental illness visibility. The movie has a heart and it shows. I was quite surprised when I read SLP won the BAFTA for Best Adapted Screenplay, it just won the Independent Spirit Award of Best Screenplay and it was nominated for a Writers Guild Award and for Golden Globe of Best Screenplay. Predictions folks aren't expecting SLP to win here, but I am... People are predicting Argo or Lincoln for Best Adapted Screenplay, but screenplay categories surprise sometimes.

BEST FOREIGN PICTURE

• Amour  - Austria

Easy and safe bet! After the Palme D'Or of Cannes Film Festival, the César Award of Best Film, the European Film Award of Best Film, the Critics' Choice Award of Best Foreign Film, the Golden Globe of Best Foreign Motion Picture, the BAFTA Award of Best Foreign-Language Film and 5 Oscar nominations, Michael Haneke's Amour will win the Academy Award for Best Foreign Picture. Once again: easy and safe bet!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Brave

While it isn't the best movie from Pixar or the best animated feature of the year (I would say Frankenweenie is the best one), Brave benefits from Golden Globe and BAFTA support, from its $237.3M at US box-office (the highest-grossing movie in the Best Animated Feature category), from an inspiring heroine and the Pixar signature. Wreck it Ralph and Frankenweenie would be the favorites for a win in this race if voters were critics only, but the awards support Brave has been received in later awards season turn its Oscar hopes more than just "possible to reach".

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Searching for Sugarman

The acclaimed documentary who has been collecting every major and "minor" Best Documentary prizes of the awards season, Searching for Sugarman's major threat may be The Invisible War, but I do believe the Academy won't go for a dark horse in this category, this year. It's a solid, safe bet and one of the best/most interesting documentaries I've ever seen (I  tend to fall in love with documentaries about the music business).

BEST EDITING

• Argo, William Goldenberg

With my predictions saying Silver Linings Playbook will take home Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay prizes, what's left for Argo? Best Editing. While I consider the editing work seen in Zero Dark Thirty much superior, I believe the Academy won't let Argo going home empty handed and since the movie has some editing prizes at home (including the "Oscar of America Cinema Editors", the Eddie Award for Best Edited Feature Film - Dramatic), Argo will receive the Academy Award for Best Editing.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda

One of the reasons why Life of Pi is such a striking cinematic experience is because of its cinematography work. Here, cinematography isn't only used as an acessory, it is used as something crucial, a magnet for your eyes that don't let you blink while watching Life of Pi (well, you blink...). It's an ashtonishing work of extremely beauty and it deserves winning, without any shadow of doubt. Major threat? Well, I would say Miranda's biggest competitor is Deakins for his gorgeous work in Skyfall, but he won't win unless the Academy goes completely crazy for James Bond.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Anna Karenina, Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer

The most impressive thing about Anna Karenina's ambitious filmmaking is that everything happens inside a theatre (and it isn't a metaphor). All the scenes (including the horse race scene) were filmed inside a theatre and the set pieces are simply beautiful, so I believe the Academy will feel obligated to honour this work of pure creativity and ambition.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran

Unless voters want to give a posthumous Oscar to Eiko Ishioka (Mirror, Mirror) for her impressive fantasy costume design work, Anna Karenina will win this one. It's a category that always goes to a "royality story", but since the only queens in the category are Snow White's stepmothers, I believe the prize goes to "russian aristocracy". Close enough!

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Peter Swords King, Richard Taylor and Rick Findlater

It's Middle Earth, guys... Nice ears and crazy beards, what else?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Life of Pi, Mychael Danna

A sweet, unique and quitebeautiful score with some exoctic vibe from somewhere in India: such a fresh thing to listen to. There's something magical about hearing Life of Pi's score, an element that largely contributed to a fantastic cinematic experience. It deserves a win and it took home the Golden Globe for Best Original Score, which is a great sign already. Everything indicates Pi will win in this category and the most atrocious thing that might happen is having the AMPAS voters feeling pitty for Argo and go for Desplant's vulgar score (something I hope and I pray for not happening). We always have John Williams with Lincoln's score, but I guess my bet stills on Danna.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

• "Skyfall" by Adele & Paul Epworth, Skyfall

Thanks to the tremendous success of Skyfall and the popularity (and talent) of Adele, the last installement of James Bond franchise to be an Oscar win assured in the Best Original Song category. 007's movies' songs are iconic, but if/when Skyfall wins this one, it will be the first Oscar the franchise wins in this category.

BEST SOUND EDITING

• Life of Pi, Drew Kunin, Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton and Ron Bartlett, D. M. Hemphill

I don't have a lot to say: I didn't know if I should go for Life of Pi or for Zero Dark Thirty, the movies with the most impressive and award-worthy sound editing works between the nominees. So, why did I go for Life of Pi? Maybe because sound is used in a more spectacular way than Zero and I believe Oscar voters may go for Pi easily (the whole cinematic experience of watching this movie is much more impressive from a more mainstream point of view, I can't explain). 

BEST SOUND MIXING

• Les Miserables, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes

Recording live: that's the secret for Les Miserables huge Oscar chances in Best Sound Mixing race. Voices, piano, everything in the right place in order to produce something that sounds truly genuine. I believe only Bond can take this one home instead of Les Miz.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Life of Pi, Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron and Erik-Jan De Boer

I don't know if you noticed, but Richard Parker was a product of CGI technology. Amazing, don't you think? Life of Pi has been collecting all the Best Visual Effects awards thanks to its "Tiger". Not even Hulk (The Avengers) can "smash!" this splendid work!

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Paperman

One of the sweetest things in the world is around 6min. It's impossible not going for this one, it's so fuckin' charming.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• Open Heart 

(I haven't watched this one yet. All predictions folks seem to be predicting Open Heart.)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

• Curfew

(I haven't watched this one yet. All predictions folks seem to be predicting Curfew.)