1. Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: A great actor who was expecting for his big break, I was afraid Ejiofor could become another Michael Fassbender by missing Oscar recognition, but it seems 12 Years a Slave will get huge support from the AMPAS (unlike Hunger or Shame) and this acting talent is likely to get nominated in the Best Actor category. He's the big star and the emotional center of 12 Years a Slave, delivering a powerful and extremely sympathetic performance the Globes, SAG Awards and Critics' Choice Awards nominated and a huge amount of critics associations awarded. The buzz around 12 Years is massive and Ejiofor is likely to become the first actor to get nominated for Best Actor for a performance in a Steve McQueen movie and maybe the first one to take a golden man home.
2. Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
Born: November 4, 1969 - Uvalde, Texas, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2012 - Magic Mike
COMMENT: Overdue for an Oscar nomination after a fantastic 2012, Matthew McConaughey is one of the leads in the Best Actor race. After the huge raves regarding his fantastic turn, the critical support around Dallas Buyers Club and the great awards season for McConaughey, he's in a good position for a win, specially after the unexpected huge support from SAG to the movie itself which may suggest a potential surprise in the nominations announcement day (maybe the movie goes beyond acting categories). Plus, McConaughey went under an extreme physical transformation in order to play this role, which is a factor that plays in the actor's advantage (remember Christian Bale win for The Fighter?). It's a moving performnace in a great movie and it's extremely easy to fall in love for his character and for the performance itself. Globes, SAG, Critics Choice Awards... they are all nominating him! Academy Awards are likely to be the next stop.
3. Bruce Dern for Nebraska
Born: June 4, 1936 - Chicago, Illinois, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 1979 - Best Supporting Actor for Coming Home (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1974 - The Great Gatsby
COMMENT: An actor I didn't know until hearing about his performance in Nebraska, Bruce Dern has a solid body of work and delivers one of the most interesting performances of the year in Alexander Payne's latest. The AMPAS likes Payne movies (Election, About Schimdt, Sideways and The Descendants got at least one Oscar nod), but they have a special crush for their leading men (wait... they snubed Giamatti for Sideways!). No matter what, Dern seems to be in a solid position in order to get a Best Actor nod: a Cannes Film Festival Award of Best Actor, Independent Spirit, Golden Globe, SAG and Critics' Choice awards' nominations and a NBR and critics associations wins, things look pretty. It's a quiet yet beautiful performance, full of details and his character is an alcoholic... I don't see AMPAS members passing this performance.
4. Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 1989 - Best Actor for Big (nom); 1994 - Best Actor for Philadelphia (win); 1995 - Best Actor for Forrest Gump (win); 1999 - Best Actor for Saving Private Ryan (nom); 2001 - Best Actor for Cast Away (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2002 - Road to Perdition
COMMENT: He won't win, that's almost for sure, but I bet he'll get nominated! It's been a while since the last time Hanks presented us high-caliber acting, powerful moments in movies and... oh God how much I missed this actor on the top of his game and it was so absorving watching him in Captain Phillips. While he's not a frontrunner in this field, Hanks seems solid with Golden Globe, SAG and Critics' Choice nods, the box-office success of Captain Phillips and the fact a lot of people (and not only his wide fanbase) would like to see him nominated for the 6th time. He used to be the darling of the AMPAS in the 90's (two Oscar wins in consecutive years!) and I believe he can seduce Oscar voters once again!
5. Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
Born: November 11, 1974 - Hollywood, Los Angeles, California, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 1994 - Best Supporting Actor for What's Eating Gilbert Grape (nom); 2005 - Best Actor for The Aviator (nom); 2007 - Best Actor for Blood Diamond (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2006 - The Departed; 2008 - Revolutionary Road; 2011 - J. Edgar; 2012 - Django Unchained
COMMENT: Described as something like an "ectasy performance" and DiCaprio's best acting turn ever, Leo is back in the game after a dark period after the possibility of releasing The Wolf of Wall Street in 2014, but after setting a Christmas release and early reactions came out, the movie got fire and the same can be said about Leo. Scorsese & DiCaprio duo always brings something great and this time it seems to bring a Leo we have never seen before: funny, energetic and I would say "crazy"! In fact, most of the Oscar buzz around Leo is due to his never-seen comedic chops and he got a Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award nods in the comedy categories, so I guess he did something right. The Wolf of Wall Street is getting traction in the Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay (and Best Director) fields, will Leo end in the nominees shortlist thanks to this explosion of raves and Oscar buzz? Maybe.
6. Robert Redford for All Is Lost
Born: August 18, 1936 - Santa Monica, California, USA
Born: August 18, 1936 - Santa Monica, California, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 1974 - Best Actor for The Sting (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1969 - Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
COMMENT: He's doing a good awards season, but his SAG snub can mean a lot of things and the fact is that people are losing their enthusiasm around Redford's work in All Is Lost. It's a tour-de-force performance and he's an iconic name in Hollywood, but the Best Actor field is so competitive this year and there are more showy performances in more Oscar-buzzy movies in the race than Redford's. Will his name and his silent performance be able to give him an Oscar nod? Does Hollywood sees him more as a director and an icon of the past than an actor?
7. Joaquin Phoenix for Her
Born: October 28, 1974 - San Juan, Puerto Rico
Born: October 28, 1974 - San Juan, Puerto Rico
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 2001 - Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator (nom); 2006 - Best Actor for Walk the Line (nom); 2013 - Best Actor for The Master (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2008 - Two Lovers
COMMENT: Described as a melancholic, delicated and beautiful performance, Phoenix is the star of one of the most well-reviewd movies of the year and one of the films critics associations more honoured this award season - Spike Jonze's Her. While his performance is failing some key award nominations (SAG and Critics Choice awards), there's always a possibility of seeing Academy members spliting votes between DiCaprio, Redford, Isaac or Bale and then Phoenix ends nominated.
8. Oscar Isaac for Inside Llewyn Davis
Born: January 5, 1980 - Guatemala
Born: January 5, 1980 - Guatemala
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: It's a star-making acting turn! Oscar Isaac is wonderful as the soulful leading man of the indie Inside Llewyn Davis and he does make an impression in the musical field. Indie awards and critics associations nominated him and he got a Golden Globe nom, so he has to be considered as a potential Oscar nominee. The AMPAS loves the Coen brothers and if they really want to recognize Inside Llewyn Davis, then Isaac can get that 5th spot in the Best Actor shortlist. He's great and not too young for a Best Actor nomination and a fresh face is always welcome...
9. Christian Bale for American Hustle
Born: January 30, 1974 - Haverfordwest, Pembrokeshire, Wales, UK
Born: January 30, 1974 - Haverfordwest, Pembrokeshire, Wales, UK
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 2011 - Best Supporting Actor for The Fighter (win)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 1987 - Empire of the Sun; 2000 - American Psycho
COMMENT: I would be less surprise if he ends getting a nod than I was when I saw Jacki Weaver nominated last year, for sure. Bale is not doing bad this awards season and everybody seems to be enthusiastic about American Hustle (and the buzz around the movie is crazy), but it is a competitive year and unless they go crazy for the movie like they went for Silver Linings Playbook last year, I don't see Bale getting this one, specially when Cooper and Lawrence are absorving all the praise.
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