1. Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
Born: December 26, 1971 - Bossier City, Louisiana, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2000 - Requiem for a Dream
COMMENT: I'm very proud for being prediting Jared Leto in this category since my first predictions and now he's the clear frontrunner of the Best Supporting Actor race, collecting all kinds of critics associations awards and getting nominated for Globes, SAG and Critics' Choice Awards (being the favorite to take home all these ones too). The raves he got, alongside with the visibility Matthew McConaughey brought to the movie and precursor awards will take Leto to the Oscar nominees shortlist, for sure. He was great in Girl, Interrupted (1999), Requiem for a Dream (2000) or Mr. Nobody (2009/2012), but awards didn't pay much attention to him... Dallas Buyers Club is giving him gold and giving Leto permission to dream about an Oscar win (but he has Fassbender on his way).
2. Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2008 - Hunger; 2011 - Shame
COMMENT: Fassbender, who was a victim of one of the most atrocious snubs in Oscar history for his tour-de-force performance in Shame, is back to Oscar race in another Steve McQueen movie. But unlike Hunger or Shame, 12 Years a Slave is a movie made for the AMPAS taste - an epic period piece about slavery and the wish for freedom - so all the raves and award recognition Fassbender has been collecting are likely to end with a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nomination, since Oscar voters tend to vote for performances in the movies they most love. The Academy members love personifications of evil and Fassbender is the devil under a human form in 12 Years... There's something haunting about his performance (but not asphyxianting as in Shame) and I he's a great contender not only for a nod but also for a win.
3. Daniel Brühl for Rush
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: A clear co-lead role, Brühl excels as the legendary Niki Lauda and while there's not a lot of Best Picture buzz around Rush, Daniel Brühl is getting a strong Oscar traction. The Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Critics' Choice Awards... they all nominated Brühl and the same did some critics associations. While Rush isn't getting far in the main award categories (if you exclude its Golden Globe nod for Best Picture - Drama), Brühl is doing fine and the AMPAS loves when a talented actors delivers a fantastic turn as a real-life person. More than a portray of Lauda, he portrays a victim, he portrays a survivor and a strong man who never gave up! An inspiring character and an inspiring performance... I believe Oscar voters will go for him.
4. Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 2013 - Best Actor for Silver Linings Playbook (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: A comedic turn in what may end as one of the most Oscar nominated movies of the year (after 12 Years a Slave and Gravity), Bradley Cooper is said to be hilarious in American Hustle. The AMPAS doesn't tend to go for "funny performances", but both David O. Russell's last two movies scored four acting noms each (and the last one was Silver Linings Playbook, a comedy), so Cooper has definitely a good chance. My big concern is "Will voters go for Cooper for the second year in a row"? Well, if they really love American Hustle, Cooper may well be caught in a wave of love. Globes and Critics' Choice Awards nominated him in the Best Supporting Actor category and he got an Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast at the SAG Awards... Things can happen but I'm not sure since there are amazing more dramatic turns contending in this category.
5. James Gandolfini for Enough Said
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: He's great in Enough Said, but we all have to admit all the buzz around Gandolfini's performance is due to his recent and unexpected death. A leading role critics associations and other awards organizations are buying in the supporting actor category, Gandolfini's honest performance is collecting major nods, being the big surprise of the awards season for me. People may say it is more about people WANTING to nominate him than for his merit, but I think he's truly great in Holocefner's comedy. With SAG Award, Critics' Choice Award and Independent Spirit nominations, an Academy Award can happen, but will Oscar voters bite the category fraud and give Gandolfini a posthumous nomination?
6. Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
Born: unknown
Born: unknown
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: Captain Phillips is losing most of its buzz, which hurts Barkhad Abdi Oscar chances for sure. He's not a movie star and Tom Hanks is the one the AMPAS will certainly want to nominate. Reviews are quite solid and this unknown man got key Golden Globe, SAG and Critics' Choice Award nods, but I feel everything can happen in this category. It's an impressive debut, but will the AMPAS go for an unknown? He's not in the Best Supporting Actress category...
7. James Franco for Spring Breakers
Born: April 19, 1978 - Palo Alto, California, USA
Born: April 19, 1978 - Palo Alto, California, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 2011 - Best Actor for 127 Hours (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2008 - Milk
COMMENT: It's one of the most impressive and well-reviewed performances of the year and Franco's best ever, but Spring Breakers is the kind of movie AMPAS members won't want to spend some time watching. Critics associations recognized his fantastic work, but critics are much more open-minded than the more conservative Oscar voters... No matter what the performance is fantastic and there's the possibility of younger members of the Academy going for him.
8. Will Forte for Nebraska
Born: June 17, 1970 - Alameda County, California, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: none
Oscar snubed performance(s): none
COMMENT: If the AMPAS goes for Nebraska then maybe they will go for Will Forte. He got a Independent Spirit nod and a NBR win in the supporting category, but he's a co-lead and the Academy loves to nominate co-leads in the supporting categories. Things look nice for Nebraska, but are things bright enough in order to see a nomination happening for Will Forte? I don't think so (and he missed Golden Globe, SAG Award and Critics' Choice nods), but I would be a fool if I ignored this possibility.
9. Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks
Born: July 9, 1956 - Concord, California, USA
Born: July 9, 1956 - Concord, California, USA
Previous Oscar recognition in acting: 1989 - Best Actor for Big (nom); 1994 - Best Actor for Philadelphia (win); 1995 - Best Actor for Forrest Gump (win); 1999 - Best Actor for Saving Private Ryan (nom); 2001 - Best Actor for Cast Away (nom)
Oscar snubed performance(s): 2002 - Road to Perdition
COMMENT: Saving Mr. Banks didn't get the enthusiastic reviews most people were expecting and in spite of some award recognition for this performance, Hanks isn't a solid bet in the Best Supporting Actor category, specially when compared with his Oscar buzz for his leading turn in the critically praised and profitable Captain Phillips. He's good as Walt Disney, he got the essence, but the movie lacks something and awards and internet folks are losing interest in this performance.
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