1. Twelve Years a Slave
Director: Steve McQueen
Starring: Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender, Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Giamatti, Paul Dano, Lupita Nyong'o and Brad Pitt
Release date: October 18, 2013 (limited USA release)
Synopsis: "A man living in New York during the mid-1800s is kidnapped and sold into slavery in the deep south."
COMMENT: Maybe the strongest Best Picture contender right now, Twelve Years a Slave fits the profile of the classic Best Picture nominee/winner - a movie about an important topic, a period piece, emotionally ressonanting and full of award-worthy performances. It is doing good at US box-office (specially for a movie that's not designed to be a box-office success, scoring $17.4M last week only in USA). Steve McQueen offered us Hunger and Shame in previous years and both features ended snubed by the Academy (no matter how great Michael Fassbender was in both), but Twelve Years a Slave seems to be the favorite in this pre-award season weeks.
2. Gravity
Starring: Sandra Bullock and George Clooney
Release date: October 4, 2013 (USA)
Synopsis: "Dr. Ryan Stone (Sandra Bullock) is a brilliant medical engineer on her first shuttle mission, with veteran astronaut Matt Kowalsky (George Clooney). But on a seemingly routine spacewalk, disaster strikes. The shuttle is destroyed, leaving Stone and Kowalsky completely alone-tethered to nothing but each other and spiraling out into the blackness. The deafening silence tells them they have lost any link to Earth...and any chance for rescue. As fear turns to panic, every gulp of air eats away at what little oxygen is left. But the only way home may be to go further out into the terrifying expanse of space."
COMMENT: The AMPAS loves sci-fi epicness and Gravity is by far one of the most satisfying cinematic experiences of the year. It's a beautiful movie (visually speaking) that impresses in most technical aspects and benefits from a popular and beloved leading actress, who certainly was one of the major reasons for Gravity's impressive box-office performance ($231.2M in US). Noms at in the technical fields are a sure bet, a Best Actress and Best Director nods are extremely likely to happen too, making me believe in a Best Picture nomination as a safe bet for Gravity, since it will get the #1 votes from the most visual cinema lovers.
3. American Hustle
Starring: Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner and Jennifer Lawrence
Release date: December 25, 2013 (USA)
Synopsis: "The 1970s-set true story of a con artist and his partner in crime, who were forced to work with a federal agent to turn the tables on other cons, mobsters, and politicians - namely, the volatile mayor of impoverished Camden, New Jersey."
COMMENT: Early reactions suggest some cinematic "awesomeness" (which is the least you could expect from David O. Russell!) and since the director and most of his cast are living some of the best years of their careers, I can see fever turning into real Oscar traction. A good movie trailer let people excited for this one, reports from some screenings say the movie is award worthy and considering the AMPAS has already known how to love David O. Russell movies (nominating The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook for a combined total of 15 nods), all the Best Picture talking around American Hustle may easily turn into a nomination.
4. Captain Phillips
Starring: Tom Hanks, Barkhad Abdi and Catherine Keener
Release date: October 11, 2013 (USA)
Synopsis: "The true story of Captain Richard Phillips and the 2009 hijacking by Somali pirates of the US-flagged MV Maersk Alabama, the first American cargo ship to be hijacked in two hundred years."
COMMENT: An intense thriller and a strong Best Picture contender (there's always a big Best Picture contender I tend to ignore in my first predictions posts every year), Captain Phillips is much more than Tom Hank's show: it is the biopic of the man taken as an hostage of Somali pirates done right and the AMPAS loves well-done features like this one. With a solid US box-office (almost $100M) and a strong directing, editing and performances, Captain Phillips is likely to be the number one choice of the AMPAS members who love a good thriller and a possible crown-pleasing choice for a Best Picture nominee.
5. Her
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams, Rooney Mara with Scarlett Johnasson (voice)
Release date: December 18, 2013 (limited USA release)
Synopsis: "A lonely writer develops an unlikely relationship with his newly-purchased operating system that's designed to meet his every need."
COMMENT: Judging by the trailer, it looks and sounds like a sweet moody piece of cinema and something with "that very same thing" Lost In Translation had... Spike Jonze never disappoints, reviews from film festivals are enthusiastic and all the talking around an Oscar nod for Scarlett Johansson's voice performance are generating a lot of Oscar traction around this one. Her may not be a movie for everyone, but it seems to have tons of potential to be the favorite movie of a lot of Academy members who appreciate movies with a heart, a soul and "a voice".
6. Nebraska
Starring: Bruce Dern, Will Forte and June Squibb
Release date: November 15, 2014 (limited USA release)
Synopsis: "An aging, booze-addled father makes the trip from Montana to Nebraska with his estranged son in order to claim a million dollar Mega Sweepstakes Marketing prize."
COMMENT: A father/son comedy-drama directed by the always great Alexander Payne, at the time Nebraska premiered at Cannes Film Festival few said it was going to be one of the top contenders for a Best Picture nomination or a serious Oscar player at all, but it seems we should never try to ignore the "Alexander Payne factor". The Best Picture chances for Nebraska seem solid right now and I believe the precursor awards season will keep all the heat alive since it is a strong contender in other categories like Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay and Best Cinematography.
7. August: Osage County
Starring: Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Juliette Lewis, Julianne Nicholson, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch, Sam Shepard, Chris Cooper, Margo Martindale and Abigail Breslin
Release date: November 8, 2013 (USA)
Synopsis: "A look at the lives of the strong-willed women of the Weston family, whose paths have diverged until a family crisis brings them back to the Midwest house they grew up in, and to the dysfunctional woman who raised them."
COMMENT: People and critics love or hate this adaptation of the play of the same name. No matter what the Streep/Roberts duo combined with the support from The Weinstein Company will take August: Osage County to the final rounds of the awards season. Given all the raves around the acting of the whole cast, Best Ensemble Acting awards will come, which makes me think this one will end as a Best Picture nominated movie. I can see a lot of actors and Streep/Roberts/Weinstein's friends giving their #1 vote to this family comedy/drama.
8. Blue Jasmine
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Sally Hawkins, Alec Baldwin, Peter Sarsgaard, Michael Stuhlbarg, Louis C.K., Andrew Dice Clay and Alden Ehrenreich
Release date: July 26, 2013 (New York City and Los Angeles)
Synopsis: "A life crisis causes a socialite to head to San Francisco, where she reconnects with her sister."
COMMENT: The AMPAS loves Woody Allen, critics and audiences' reactions to Blue Jasmine are enthusiastic and Cate Blanchett's awards-worthy performance will keep the movie alive in people's minds so, Blue Jasmine has a nice shot at a Best Picture nomination. It may not have all the love Midnight In Paris got a couple of years ago, but Jasmine is a solid Woody Allen drama and it draws some comparisons with the classic A Streetcar Named Desire... If critics embrace this one in their Best Picture nominations and top 10 lists, I can see all the heat around the latest Allen movie turning into a Best Picture nomination.
9. Blue Is The Warmest Color
Starring: Adèle Exarchopoulos and Léa Seydoux
Release date: October 25, 2013 (limited USA release)
Synopsis: "Adele's life is changed when she meets Emma, a young woman with blue hair, who will allow her to discover desire, to assert herself as a woman and as an adult. In front of others, Adele grows, seeks herself, loses herself, finds herself."
COMMENT: The foreign-language film that impressed and won the Golden Palm at Cannes Film Festival, but will it be able to be this year's Amour? Abdellatif Kechiche doesn't benefit from the "European cinema leggend" status Haneke has, but Blue Is The Warmest Color got huge raves and it is set as the major Best Foreign Picture contender, so things can happen. In fact, the movie's biggest problem is being a lesbian drama, but the buzz it is getting in other categories like Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress will certainly help gaining Best Picture traction (and the two lead actresses are doing a wonderful job promoting the movie). The Academy members nominated Brokeback Mountain some years ago, so seeing Blue Is The Warmest Color as a Best Picture nominee stills a possibility specially if the movie gets enough love from the precursor awards.
10. Fruitvale Station
Director: Ryan Coogler
Starring: Michael B. Jordan, Octavia Spencer, Melonie Diaz, Kevin Durand, Chad Michael Murray and Ariana Neal
Release date: July 26, 2013 (limited USA release)
Synopsis: "FRUITVALE STATION follows the true story of Oscar Grant (Michael B. Jordan), a 22-year-old Bay Area resident who wakes up on the morning of December 31, 2008 and feels something in the air. Not sure what it is, he takes it as a sign to get a head start on his resolutions: being a better son to his mother (Octavia Spencer), whose birthday falls on New Year's Eve, being a better partner to his girlfriend Sophina (Melonie Diaz), who he hasn't been completely honest with as of late, and being a better father to Tatiana (Ariana Neal), their beautiful four year-old daughter. Crossing paths with friends, family, and strangers, Oscar starts out well, but as the day goes on, he realizes that change is not going to come easily. His resolve takes a tragic turn, however, when BART officers shoot him in cold blood at the Fruitvale subway stop on New Year's Day. Oscar's life and tragic death would shake the Bay Area - and the entire nation - to its very core."
COMMENT: It lost some buzz during this Fall season, but it recently got nominated for the Independent Spirit Award of Best First Feature and it is one of the most satisfying cinematic experiences I've seen this year. More than one of the biggest critical darlings of 2013, Fruitvale Station is the winner of the Jury Grand Prize and the Audience Award of this year's edition of Sundance Film Festival and it is one of the most successful limited releases of the year (which makes me think audiences really loved this movie). Some might say Lee Daniel's The Butler will take Fruitvale's place in the Best Picture awards list, but I think it will get more #1 votes than The Butler (I believe people can truly love Fruitvale better).
11. The Wolf of Wall Street
Director: Martin Scorsese
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Matthew McConaughey and Margot Robbie
Release date: December 25, 2013 (USA)
COMMENT: The huge Oscar contender that was going to be released in 2013, then 2014 and now Christmas Day of 2013... The Wolf of Wall Street should be higher in my predictions list, but this is a last minute change and I had to think about where to place this one. Early reports are quite enthusiastic and buzz is getting stronger and stronger... A strong Best Picture player is coming!
12. Saving Mr. Banks
Director: John Lee Hancock
Starring: Emma Thompson, Tom Hanks, Collin Farrell, Paul Giamatti and Jason Schwartzman
Release date: December 13, 2013 (limited USA release)
COMMENT: It can be a lovely movie, but I have my doubts about Saving Mr. Banks' Best Picture chances. Mary Poppins is a classic and one of the most beloved features ever and while I can't say Mr. Banks has all the potential to be a charming movie and one of the biggest crowd pleasers of the year, buzz seems to be more about Thompson and Hanks' performances. Early reviews are quite positive, but I need a strong box-office performance in order to consider this one as one of the top 10 contenders.
13. Lee Daniels' The Butler
Director: Lee Daniels
Starring: Forest Whitaker, Oprah Winfrey, John Cusack, Alan Rickman, Jane Fonda, David Oyelowo, David Banner, Vanessa Redgrave and others
Release date: August 16, 2013 (USA)
COMMENT: A nice movie, some call it "an important movie about a controversial subject", praising its "historical relevance", but how many people really love this one? The Best Picture voting system is all about the #1 votes and in spite of the movie's box-office performance, I don't see a lot of Academy members having this one as their favorite movie of the year when voting times comes (specially with more "high quality and lovely" contenders this year). But it will have The Weinstein Company promoting this one...
14. Inside Llewyn Davis
Director: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen
Starring: Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan, Justin Timberlake, John Goodman and Garrett Hedlund
Release date: December 6, 2013 (limited USA release)
Director: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen
Starring: Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan, Justin Timberlake, John Goodman and Garrett Hedlund
Release date: December 6, 2013 (limited USA release)
COMMENT: The Academy loves the Coen brothers, but will a little lovely movie like Inside Llewyn Davis be Best Picture worthy for the AMPAS' minds? Best Original Screenplay apart, the Coens' latest doesn't look like a solid contender in other categories, so unless the precursor awards say something different, I don't see this one as a Best Picture nominated movie, but I can't ignore "the Coen brothers factor"...
15. Before Midnight
Director: Richard Linklater
Starring: Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke
Release date: May 24, 2013 (USA limited)
COMMENT: The third (and last) part of one of the most infectious love stories ever made is now one of the most loved and well-reviewed movies of the year. There's something special about Before Midnight and the movie has an huge hungry fanbase asking for award recognition. The second installement of the franchise got a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, will Before Midnight be able to get a Best Picture one? I don't believe it can happen, but the heat is impossible to deny and it had a successful limited release.
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