Academy Awards 2017 nominees predictions: Best Picture + Best Director + Acting categories + Screenplay categories + Best Foreign Picture + Best Animated Feature
- BEST PICTURE
La La Land brought some welcome fresh air to 2016 and to the musical genre in general and emerged as the Best Picture front-runner early in Venice Film Festival... the AMPAS members love a good musical and once you see this one it is impossible to leave the theatre without a smile on your face and since the team behind La La Land is campaigning heavily - a lock in Best Picture race. Moonlight is one of the most well-reviewed movie of the year and one of the most well-executed ones, a perfect balance between amazing acting, effective storytelling, visual beauty and technical perfectionism that elevates the story of Chiron, the gay black kid turned into a man. Oscar voters go for gay (male) movies once in a while and this one appeals to the indie community and... to the heart! Kenneth Lonergan's Sundance hit Manchester by the Sea benefits from heroic acting turns, a beautiful screenplay and a sensitive direction, making this one of the most touching movies of the year that will please Oscar voters who can't resist to more traditional movies and some indie folks. Chris Pine and Jeff Bridges star in what we can consider the sleeper hit of the year, Hell or High Water gained universal acclaim this Summer but no one could expect how tight award organizations would embrace this dynamite thriller full of heart: critics recognized, the Globes nominated it in the top categories and so did the indie organizations, which combined with the younger branch of the Academy will lead Hell or High Water to a Best Picture nom for sure. Hacksaw Ridge is another major award contender most people ignored until late this award season (and I'm proud to say I included Hacksaw Ridge in my first predictions when everyone else underrated its potential because of Mel Gibson), but being a major player in the technical categories, having a charismatic turn by Andrew Garfield leading the film and telling a story about heroic acts is just what the Oscar voters want to watch and to pick as their #1 choice. Denis Villeneuve presented us a sci-fi movie wonder named Arrival, starring the AMPAS darling Amy Adams and... well, I guess I don't have to say much more.... it's Amy Adams factor plus a well-executed cinematic piece in every aspect you can imagine, making it a "must vote" Best Picture contender to sci-fi and cinematic spectacle fans. Then, Scorsese presents us his passion project named Silence who we need to consider - in spite of few critics organizations recognition and the complete snub at the Globes, Silence is a period epic tale about faith that comes from one of the major Hollywood names ever, so don't count this one out because its release is only by Christmas. The adaptation of August Wilson's play - Fences - by Denzel Washington must also be under consideration since it has been collecting raves in acting and writing departments and sometimes the AMPAS members only want a movie with great acting and a lot of showy drama (and let's not forget the Academy loves Denzel Washington). Tom Ford's first movie, Single Man, got snubed in a bunch of categories in spite of his visual explendor, sharp screenplay and ressonant score, so I keep asking myself if Nocturnal Animals will follow the same fate or will be this year's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: a visual wonder full of great performances with a polarized reception, but mostly positive... well, unlike A Single Man, this one benefits from Amy Adams factor and it could lead to a ferocious Best Picture nomination or is the movie too brilliant for the Academy? I'm a believer. Captain Fantastic surprised a big bunch of experts by getting that SAG nod for best ensemble... which show some big love from the actors' branch and if the writers and producers guilds recognize this lovely indie, Captain Fantastic will turn into a delicious surprise Best Picture serious competitor.
Mike Mills' 20th Century Women didn't go far away from award recognition in the acting fields (and a couple in the screenplay department) and in spite of being nominated for the Comedy-Musical Golden Globe, it missed some crucial ones by the indie community. The Handmaiden seduced critics and took some some big prizes in Best Foreign Picture and artistic departments and since it was not selected as a Best Foreign Picture finalist, will the AMPAS go for this one here or they don't consider this one one of the best of the year? Natalie Portman is leading the Best Actress race, but Jackie has been missing the right tone in the precursor award season... it was a front-runner a couple of months ago, but now it seems no one is bitting Jackie as a Best Picture strong contender. The Jungle Book showed a lot of promise because of the "visual spectacle" factor, but it lost his sit to Arrival... and Loving is all about Ruth Negga not so much about the movie itself (but let's not forget we have a lot of "black stories" as potential Oscar contenders like Moonlight, Fences or Hidden Figures in the contenders list!)
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Hell or High Water
5. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Arrival
7. Silence
8. Fences
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Captain Fantastic
11. 20th Century Women
12. The Handmaiden
13. Jackie
14. The Jungle Book
15. Loving
- BEST DIRECTOR
La La Land works perfectly thanks to Damien Chazelle's assured direction full of youth and given the movie's success and the heavy campaign, I believe Chazelle will get a Best Director Oscar nod (and since he did a great not-Oscar-nominated-direction-work in Whiplash, I believe he won't miss this!) and turn to be the strongest contender for a win. Moonlight made waves when it premiered in fall film festivals, but since then it became one of the most critical acclaimed movies of the year and a awards' champion, with Barry Jenkins also scoring key Best Director award nominations that will likely be followed by the AMPAS - I know Moonlight is a gay drama, but it is a brilliant one thanks to Jenkins and not recognizing him would be simply atrocious. Manchester by the Sea is another top contender for Best Picture, screenplay and acting categories and Lonergan has a Best Director nod in the bag, not because of a showy directing work but because of a very sensitive one and because of the movie's popularity in the awards circuit. Villeneuve has already presented the world with some of the finest movies of the last 10 years (Incendies, Prisoners or Sicario) and by directing Arrival in such a glorious way only benefits him in the Best Director race, but he missed a Golden Globe nom (and Arrival missed the Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture - Drama), so he's walking on thin ice and he'll have to wait and hope for recognition from the Directors Guild. Mel Gibson is a kind of Hollywood's enemy nº1, but he has been well-received from awards organizations by getting some key award nominations for his fine work in Hacksaw Ridge, but like I said... he isn't the most beloved celebrity in Hollywood at all!
Tom Ford proved he's a big deal when it comes to bring a movie to life with Nocturnal Animals (proving A Single Man wasn't a random act of luck), showing he can manage narrative with style and visual splendor - and critics organizations have been nominating him in the directing department and so did the Globes! Scorsese's passion project Silence came to life and while there isn't much Oscar buzz around the movie and the precursor award didn't go THAT crazy... well, it's Scorsese and his passion project, we just can't exclude him! Hell or High Water promises to be a hit when it comes to nominations announcement morning (a modern western about love for a brother and fighting against a modern day invasion), so don't exclude David Mackenzie as a strong contender for a surprise nomination. Fences has been collecting raves and while Washington is getting more praise for the acting than the directing, we can't forget the Academy members simply love him. Pablo Larraín and Jackie itself are "underperforming", but if Oscar voters are able to see how brilliant the movie and the directing work are he is a obvious choice.
2. Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve for Arrival
5. Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge
6. Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals
7. Martin Scorsese for Silence
8. David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water
9. Denzel Washington for Fences
10. Pablo Larraín for Jackie
- BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck's performance in Manchester by the Sea is too good to pass: LOCKED. Denzel Washington acting turn in Fences has been receiving nothing but critical acclaim, with critics calling his character one of the best in modern American literature and calling for a nice shot at a third Oscar win for acting for Mr. Washington: LOCKED. Andrew Garfield has been receiving major support during the precursor award season as the charismatic leading actor of Hacksaw Ridge and with the bonus points of also starring Martin Scorsese's Silence, he's very likely to take one of the 5 seats in the Best Actor Oscar nominees shortlist (let's hope the Academy members don't snub him like they did for The Social Network or that Silence doesn't cause a vote splitting). La La Land wouldn't be that unique piece of cinema without its leading man Ryan Gosling and the precursor awards are recognizing him, but let's not be too sure he'll get nominated - Oscar voters don't use to nominate musical leading men, no matter how great and charming they are. Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic was pure wishful thinking some weeks ago until he got the Golden Globe nomination in the tricky Drama field and then got one of the five spots between the SAG nominees for Best Actor and for Best Ensemble... a wonderful acting turn, but there so many good performances fighting for this 5th spot!
When Adam Driver took the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor for Paterson, I started paying attention to him and then some other critics organizations and the Gotham Award also nominated him... given the success of Girls TV series, the Star Wars franchise, his reputation as one of the best actors of the new generation and the bonus points of being part of Silence, I would consider Adam Driver as a much stronger candidate to a Best Actor nomination than most experts would think and I can see him stealing a seat. Chris Pine's soulful performance in Hell or High Water has been overlooked by the precursor awards with only a couple of critics organizations nominating him, but if the AMPAS goes crazy for Hell or High Water, he can easily get nominated instead of someone who's not locked since he's the only true likeable character in the movie and it is the best performance of his career. Tom Hanks was born to star Eastwood's Sully, but major awards passed his performances (a shocking Golden Globe snub!) and given how strong the other contenders are... guess Clint Eastwood factor is the only reason Hanks' Oscar hopes can be alive this year. Edgerton delivers a strong performance in Loving, but Ruth Negga is doing better at the awards race and there are other leading male performances more showy and expressive than his. If Gyllenhaal gets an Oscar nod it would more than a performance recognition but also an apologize for snubing some of the finest work of one of the best actors working today (Prisoners, Enemy and Nightcrawler) - don't get me wrong, his performance in Nocturnal Animals is a truly impressive one.
2. Denzel Washington for Fences
3. Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
4. Ryan Gosling for La La Land
5. Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic
6. Adam Driver for Paterson
7. Chris Pine for Hell or High Water
8. Tom Hanks for Sully
9. Joel Edgerton for Loving
10. Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals
- BEST ACTRESS
Aside from Black Swan, Natalie Portman delivered the other signature performance of her career in Jackie: even her limitations (some lack of natural acting and relaxing) were used as part of Jackie Kennedy's public persona... It's a mesmerizing tour de force performance and Portman as an Oscar nomination waiting for her. Emma Stone is simply enchanting in La La Land using her expressive eyes to get major award recognition during precursor award season - the performance alone would be enough for an Oscar nomintion, but it happens the movie is the Best Picture Oscar front-runner and her chances of getting nominated is close to an event we can't stop to happen. Then we have a legend of French cinema getting major honors - Isabelle Huppert... after getting snubed for The Piano Teacher some years ago, she's back to Oscar talk with Elle and the award organizations are going for her... only the SAG overlooked her performance, but Oscar voters are likely to love her performance in Elle and vote for her. Arrival wouldn't have the same success without Amy Adams, who's superb in it! She's known for being an awards magnet and an Oscar darling (who never won) and given the movie success at the box-office, between the critics and during the precursor awards, an Oscar nod just seems a natural consequence. Then I have the trickiest 5th spot of all the Oscar races... it's Ruth Negga for Loving Vs Annette Bening for 20th Century Women Vs Meryl The Queen of Hollywood Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins Vs Jessica Chastain for Miss Slone!!!! Well, I'll go for Negga, the breakthrough performance from a young beauty in a movie about the interracial marriage and the love story who changed America - Negga is superb and in spite of being the less famous, she can take the spot.
Bening delivers her best and most sincere performance since American Beauty, but in spite of all the critical acclaim she missed the SAG nod just like the whole cast who pursued an Ensemble nod - the movie is extremely personal and her performance will please a lot of Oscar voters, but I don't know if they will be enough Oscar voters. Streep does it again and she pursues another nomination, and I must be a fool for not including her in the TOP 5, but... Then, Jessica Chastain shines in Miss Sloane, it is a performance who push you against the wall and almost kills you. It's a showy performance that the Golden Globes noticed and Chastain is a respected actress, so AMPAS members will go to see this one! Sasha Lane (American Honey) runs for the breakthrough performance spot in the Oscar shortlist, but given how tight the Best Actress race is this year, only a miracle. Kate Beckinsale didn't get the support she deserved for her magnetic performance in Love & Friendship: one of the best performances of the year and she's simply comedic gold in this one.
2. Emma Stone for La La Land
3. Isabelle Huppert for Elle
4. Amy Adams for Arrival
5. Ruth Negga for Loving
6. Annette Bening for 20th Century Women
7. Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins
8. Jessica Chastain for Miss Sloane
9. Sasha Lane for American Honey
10. Kate Beckinsale for Love & Friendship
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Moonlight features stellar supporting performance, but Mahershala Ali is the brighest star and while you can't deny how good Trevante Rhodes, Ashton Sanders and André Holland are, it's Ali who's getting all the Best Supporting Actor awards and it's impossible to deny him an Oscar nomination. With six Oscar nominations and 1 win, Jeff Bridges is back to Oscar race for scene-stealing acting turn full of "Hollywood legend charisma" in Hell or High Water, and since the movie's status as a major Best Picture contender, Bridges can be considered a lock. Lucas Hedges might be young (and too young for Oscar stats, making him a risky prediction), but the AMPAS has already nominated young men and some children in this category (Leonardo DiCaprio in What's Eating Gilbert Grape, for example) and Hedges is just too good to be ignored in Manchester by the Sea and the precursor awards noticed the same, so I'll go for him. Michael Shannon delivers a scene-stealing performance in Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals, getting raves for that and some critics award recognition, but missing the globes and SAG awards... will his snub for 99 Homes play in his advantage this year? I bet it will. Dev Patel comes to the 5th spot for his leading performance in Lion (a category fraud) and he's great in the movie, his most charming performance since Slumdog Millionaire and precursors are going for him - but will he get the nod since Lion is not doing great at box-office and it is losing Oscar heat in general?
Hugh Grant is also in the mix for Florence Foster Jenkins, in spite of being (clearly) a leading performance... will the AMPAS bite? He has been getting nods in both supporting and leading categories, which makes an Oscar nominations something tricky to happen. Ben Foster delivers a dynamite performance in the Oscar favorite Hell or High Water, a showy hot-blooded performance that got noticed by some awards, but in this category any contender can get nominated and Bridges is already a lock from the same movie in this category. Silence hasn't been a major award player in the precursor award season, but Issey Ogata came 2nd for the LAFCA Award and reviews say he steals the show, so if Oscar voters go all smiles for Scorsese's latest, this Japanese acting legend can have nice shot. Nocturnal Animals also features a career best performance from Aaron Johnson-Taylor as a mentally unstable criminal and he got a surprise Golden Globe nomination (THAT I PREDICTED MUAHAHAH) for that... he's young and Shannon is far more respected in the industry than him, but don't count him out! Alden Ehrenreich is a delight in Hail, Caesar! and since the AMPAS love the Coen brothers, this young promising actor might have a chance, while I must admit including him in my predictions is true wishful thinking.
1. Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water
3. Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea
4. Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals
5. Dev Patel for Lion
6. Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins
7. Ben Foster for Hell or High Water
8. Issey Ogata for Silence
9. Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals
10. Alden Ehrenreich for Hail, Caesar!
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The most "black" category of this year's Academy Awards race, Best Supporting Actress competition stars fantastic colorful acting turns. According to critics, Viola Davis delivers a performance of a lifetime in Fences and she's swiping almost every award for Best Supporting Actress, making her a clear lock for an Oscar nomination and a major contender for a win- but what if she gets nominated in Best Actress? Then here come Naomie Harris and Michelle Williams, both scoring extra-points for the crazy Best Picture buzz around Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea, respectively: while Williams' performance alone would be a lone criteria for an Oscar nomination, Harris gets all the respect for a great performance in a difficult and quite tricky role, and both will take a spot in the nominees shortlist for sure. Janelle Monáe shines in Moonlight, but she's getting major awards and critics' attention for Hidden Figures taking a spot everyone thought would be Octavia Spencer's little throne and while some argue the fact that Monáe missed crucial Golden Globe and SAG nods, I think she benefits from her character's storyline and the "amazing breakout year" factor and the AMPAS tends to nominate female newcomers in this category. Greta Gerwig has a juicy Oscary role and delivers a truly amazing performance in Mike Mills' 20th Century Women and I think the AMPAS will go for recognizing her work while she's young and beautiful and while her fantastic star-making performance in Frances Ha keeps fresh in people's minds, but we can't forget she missed the Globes and the SAG didn't go for her.
Nicole Kidman is getting the precursor awards consideration she needs to get an Oscar nomination and she can make a man cry like a baby in one scene in Lion as a suffering mom, but the movie is losing Best Picture buzz and not THAT good at box-office and she might miss it (and the AMPAS might feel Kidman fits better as a leading star than a supporting actress). Octavia Spencer is great in Hidden Figures and got some solid Oscar buzz, but her co-star Monáe is surprising experts and she can steal Spencer's seat in a way few are predicting. Gladstone illuminates the screen in the acclaimed indie Certain Women, but no matter how great she is and the critics love (and awards), I believe the movie will not be seen for enough Oscar voters (shame!). Kim Min-hee is a magnet in The Handmaiden, but will she be able to get nominated for a foreign (lesbian) period sexual-thriller? Well, sometimes the AMPAS surprises in a delicious way and The Handmaiden is brilliant! Gugu Mbatha-Raw got a lot of praise for her performance in Miss Sloane, but the movie late release didn't benefit her in the Oscar run and Jessica Chastain is the real star of the movie.
2. Naomie Harris for Moonlight
3. Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea
4. Janelle Monáe for Hidden Figures
5. Greta Gerwig for 20th Century Women
6. Nicole Kidman for Lion
7. Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures
8. Lily Gladstone for Certain Women
9. Kim Min-hee for The Handmaiden
10. Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Miss Sloane
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
2. Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
3. La La Land, Damien Chazelle
4. The Lobster, Yorgos Lanthimos & Efthymis Filippou
5. 20th Century Women, Mike Mills
6. Toni Erdmann, Maren Ade
7. Jackie, Noah Oppenheim
8. Captain Fantastic, Matt Ross
9. Hail, Caesar!, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen
10. Zootopia, Jared Bush and Phil Johnson
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Moonlight, Barry Jenkins
2. Fences, August Wilson
3. Silence, Jay Cocks
4. Nocturnal Animals, Tom Ford
5. Julieta, Pedro Almodóvar
6. Loving, Jeff Nichols
7. Love & Friendship, Whit Stilman
8. Lion, Luke Davies
9. The Handmaiden, Park Chan Wook
10. Hidden Figures, Theodore Melfi and Allison Schroeder
- BEST FOREIGN PICTURE
1. Toni Erdmann - Germany
2. The Salesman - Iran
3. A Man Called Ove - Sweden
4. The King's Choice - Norway
5. Tanna - Australia
6. Land of Mine - Denmark
7. It's Only the End of the World - Canada
8. Paradise - Russia
9. My Life as a Zucchini - Switzerland
- BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. The Red Turtle
4. Moana
5. The Little Prince
6. Sing
7. Your Name
8. April & The Extraordinary World
9. Kung Fu Panda 3
10. Finding Dory
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