Academy Awards 2020 nominees predictions: 2nd ROUND (re-edited) - BEST PICTURE, BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM, BEST ANIMATED FEATURE, ACTING, DIRECTOR and SCREENPLAY categories

Considering I used to reveal my Best Picture predictions after predicting all the other categories, I realized it was wrong: a lot of things come with Best Picture heat and not the other way! This year, things are getting very interesting: it seems people/critics/the Academy are willing to apologize Netflix; the streaming giant is distributing and releasing some of the most acclaimed movies of the year and it is building a massive Oscar campaign for them; Best Foreign Picture turned Best International Film and its new rules make AMPAS members to watch a movie before they can really vote for it; Parasite keeps getting rave reviews, making a lot of money in its limited US release and it is also a huge crowd pleaser (something Roma was not that much); there are a big couple of potentially strong Oscar players that will only be released coming December, which is strange because these late releases don’t bound that well with Oscar, but they didn’t lose any buzz because of it; and there are not that many movies about African-American tales, so it might be tricky for the AMPAS to avoid another #OscarSoWhite.
And soon we are going to watch a storm of critics awards, the National Board of Review and the Golden Globes will announce their nominees and things will get clearer... so, I decided to publish my predictions before awards season gets its start. The Gotham Independent Film Awards have already released its nominees and while I don't take them very seriously, they offer a view at what indie contenders with smaller attentions/campaigns/studios might break into the big game (I have to post about the Gotham nominations actually!). 

Considering all these points, just have a look at my predictions:

Martin Scorsese is back with The Irishman and the response? Universal critical acclaim! Netflix has just got another giant awards player – a winning bet for the streaming giant! More than a meditative crime epic, The Irishman is also a passion project for the master Scorsese and its $200M budget, its all-star veteran cast and the de-aging technology set this production as one of the most ambitious movie projects come to life, so there’s no way precursor awards and the Academy will miss this one in the Best Picture nominees shortlist. The major threat for The Irishman? Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – a love letter to the film industry, Los Angeles and the Hollywood life/culture. Tarantino’s latest grossed a lot of money at the box-office (it grossed $140.7M in the US for a worldwide total of $370.1M) and it was met with critical acclaim. And you know how much the AMPAS loves movies about movies! Right now, it seems the race will be between The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Another movie that met with a lot of critical acclaim is Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, starring Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson – a movie that’s a love letter to soon-to-be ex-husband and ex-wife, both heartbreaking and funny, a movie that’s said to be both devastating and touching. The movie was competing for the Golden Lion at this year’s edition of Venice Film Festival and it got the 2nd place for the People’s Choice Award at Toronto International Film Festival and it just sounds like the kind of movie that ages well at people’s minds and the kind of movie actors will love – it’s an acting showcase for a stellar ensemble and actors are a huge part of the Academy! Plus, Marriage Story has the Netflix machine promoting it and building a campaign, so it won’t fall into oblivion. An international sensation, Parasite caught off-guarded when I heard about it and it amazed me when I watched it: I’ve never seen a movie this unique before! It’s a movie you both love (because you just love it) and respect (because of the craft involved). It won the Palme d’Or at Cannes and it got the 3rd place for People’s Choice Award at 2019’s edition of TIFF, plus it has already grossed over $100M from a $11M budget and it is the clear frontrunner for Best International Film – it will get a Best Picture nomination. The 5th spot at my Best Picture nominees shortlist goes to Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit – and it’s funny, because I think it is a movie I can see taking Best Picture home! After shocking half of the moviegoers world by winning TIFF’s People’s Choice Award (I was not shocked, I predicted a 2nd place for this one by the time), Jojo Rabbit has met enthusiastic response from the audiences and it has already grossed $5.5M during its limited release before going wide. The critics, however, gave the movie polarizing reviews – some truly loved it, some just didn’t get the appeal… So, it is a movie you love or hate, it seems there’s no middle ground! But just like happened back in Toronto, you can’t vote AGAINST a movie, so I believe it will get a lot of passion votes. Plus, Fox Searchlight know how to campaign a movie, which is a big advantage for Jojo (and Waititi is also campaigning and he’s a light to watch during interviews). 

Next, I would say we have Sam Mendes’ 1917 – a war epic! There’s not much to say about his one just yet, but judging from the movie trailer, it will be BIG! The Academy has always loved the war-drama genre and for all means, I believe 1917 will be seen as a serious Best Picture contender not only because of the movie itself, but because I can see it contending for a big couple of visual and sound categories – it can end as the most nominated movie of the year. Plus, it is a comeback for Sam Mendes after spending too much time in the 007 – James Bond franchise. For the 7th I’m going with Greta Gerwig’s take on Louisa May Alcott’s classic Little Women – early reactions say it is not only “good”, but “very good”, praising its narrative liberties without sacrificing the movie’s core and it is said to be a more feminist take on the novel. I think the Academy will want to nominate a movie about women and with a positive view on women – not only this kind of movie will touch a lot of Oscar voters (people grow up with Little Women), but it is also good publicity for the institution. And considering Gerwig has already seduced the Academy with Lady Bird back in 2017, doing it a 2nd time will be even easier (and Columbia / Sony are respected institutions in the Oscar campaign). For number 8, I would say Ford v. Ferrari – why? Not only it got some enthusiastic reception at Telluride, but also because I believe word on the movie has been kept silent so it can make some noise at the box-office. Yes, I’m predicting this one to do well at the box-office and be a kind of a crowd-pleaser. Academy members love a movie about boys and cars and races and friendship! And just like 1917, I can see it raising its profile as a Best Picture contender by getting a big couple of nods in below the line categories. Plus, since 2010, Christian Bale has starred 4 Best Picture nominated movies (The Fighter, American Hustle, The Big Short and Vice) – and he’s got another great role! Does Bale in a great role = Best Picture nomination for the movie? Maybe! And since I’m predicting 9 Best Picture nominees, I’m considering Bombshell for the last spot – early reactions are quite positive (but it keeps the reviews embargo) and remember the Oscars were a major stage for stars to promote the #MeToo movement, so it makes senses Academy members will want to give visibility to a movie about a sexual harassment scandal, not only because they like it, but also (mostly) because of its relevance. Just like Little Women, Bombshell is a feminist movie, about female empowerment and having courage to tell the truth. 

Others contenders that might pop-up here: A24’s Waves is an acclaimed actors’ movie, featuring a stellar acting ensemble in a tale about an African-American family going through drama and tragedy (it is this year’s movie about African-Americans with better chances for a Best Picture nomination, which might be a possibility so the AMPAS avoids another #OscarSoWhite); one of the most popular and controversial movies of the year, Joker is a box-office success and it has a huge fanbase demanding for some Oscar consideration (but unlike Bohemian Rhapsody, it is “superhero genre”, which hurts); The Two Popes, an acclaimed movie which has been collecting a big couple of awards from film festivals and it has been regarded as an audiences favorite, but with The Irishman and Marriage Story so ahead at this point of the race, I think the Academy will want to avoid some controversy that might come if they pick 3 Netflix movies for Best Picture; we have The Farewell, an indie that did great both commercially and critically and it is driven by a major Best Actress contender who’s likely to give the movie some visibility (and being also considered a Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Screenplay contender also benefits), but I think if the AMPAS “goes Asian” for Best Picture, they’ll go for Parasite; then, Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell, because Eastwood is a hit or miss with the Academy, but this one looks good, intriguing, relevant and featuring great acting, so Oscars voters might just embrace it for real despite the late release; and for last, I've stated Roadside seems focused in promoting The Peanut Butter Falcon (which I approve) and I believe it might get a lot of love from indie folks and those who really watch it (such a tender movie and a feel-good tale about friendship and being happy).

Parasite is the frontrunner for Best International Film. End of the conversation! Pedro Almodóvar is back with Pain and Glory (or like the original Spanish title, Dolor y gloria) and it seems it got very personal for the auteur - the movie is like a reflection of himself and it has been collecting raves since it premiered at Cannes. And Spain has officially submitted this one, so things look good on paper (and having Antonio Banderas running for Best Actor only gives the movie more visibility). Pablo Larraín has already directed a lot of Chilean movies with international project, starting from No (2012), which got an Academy Award nomination for Best Foreign Language Film, to The Club (2015) and Neruda (2016), both got Golden Globe nomination for Best Foreign Language Film. And after the success of 2016's Jackie (starring Natalie Portman), Larrín has established himself as one of the most relevant international directors and it happens his movie Ema just got selected has Chile's official submission for Best International Film - and it got a lot of praise during this year's edition of Venice Film Festival, so I'm expecting Ema to appear here too! A not so obvious choice, but I believe Corpus Christi (Poland's submission) has a nice chance here - I heard someone raving about this movie and, in fact, it checks all the boxes: a commanding lead performance, crime, moral values and a engaging and thrilling atmosphere. Poland has a nice score of nods in this category (with the former name) and Corpus Christi has been collecting awards at the film festival circuit - I believe it is a strong bet. Finally, Papicha, my personal favorite after Parasite - a movie about women in a society that denies their social relevance and their freedom. It is a beautiful movie, with beautiful performances coming from a very specific context - if voters watch this one, there's no way to forget Papicha.Senegal's Atlantique got rave reviews during Cannes Film Festival and it benefits from the Netflix machine that will promote it and make sure people watch this one. Les Misérables got submitted over the film festival sensation Portrait of a Lady on Fire, but people who saw this one say it is very good, thrilling and full of social commentary - and France is always one of the AMPAS favorites. Portugal has yet to score its first nomination here and The Domain might be the movie that gets it - it is an epic scale family drama that kind reminds of Ford's cinematic epics, with beautiful cinematography and a stellar leading male performance (it's very old school, which might appeal). As for Sweden's And Then We Danced and Colombia's Monos, those I know who saw them say they are good and might impress - and judging from reviews, they sure look like strong bets here.

I don't have a lot to comment about Toy Story 4, Frozen II and How To Train Your Dragon 3: The Hidden World - they do look like the clear frontrunners and while Frozen II is yet to be released, the hype is good and people might just feel the nostalgia of the first installment. Toy Story 4 and How To Train Your Dragon 3 are just the best animated features of the year so far and box-office hits, so, it's a no-brainer. I also loved Weathering With You, an anime romantic-comedy which got plenty of critical praise and it was a box-office sensation too - not only it is beautiful to look at, but it also offers substance. Buñuel In the Labyrinth of Turtles is based on a true story and it is so good they adapted a true story to an animated feature! It was one of Spain's contenders for Best International Film official submission and the movie is a serious deal, but the AMPAS likes to go for a serious movie once in a while in this category. Another "serious" options would be both Funan and I Lost My Body (the later, a film festival sensation). Personally, I loved Funan - it is emotionally resonant and so real at times. Abominable is a very good popcorn animated movie with a strong message for kids, so it is a strong contender too. Missing Link is a lot of fun and Spies In Disguise also promises some laughs and thrills, which sometimes are everything Oscar voters ask for in this category.

People claim 2019 is a weak year for Best Actress race... I don't think so. I do think it is a  "weaker" year when compared with last year, but I don't feel it is weak. In fact, I feel Best Actress is extremely tricky to predict this year! 

Of course we have a clear lock: Renee Zellweger for her performance as Judy Garland in Judy. It is the kind of transformative and highly emotional acting turn the AMPAS loves to honour and Zellweger is just brilliant. She has a comeback narrative after more than 10 years without any major project (and she was a major starlet during the late 90's and early 2000's, winning a Best Supporting Actress Oscar for 2003's Cold Mountain) - she's back at the top of her game and she delivers the most Oscar buzzy female performance of the year. You better expect Zellweger to get her 4th Oscar nomination! Then I feel Scarlett Johansson is secure for a nomination for her raved acting turn in Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story. It seems Johansson not only delivers one of the best performances of the year (described as "raw" and even "the best work of her career"), but she's also set as a major contender for a win too! Marriage Story got rave reviews and it's a clear frontrunner for Best Picture, which might generate a lot of goodwill around her work. Plus, at this point of the Oscar talk about her, people are wondering "how has Johansson never received an Oscar nomination before?" - after Ghost World (2001), Lost In Translation (2003), Match Point (2005), Her (2013) or Under the Skin (2014), I think it's her time now! And then, there's Charlize Theron for Bombshell, in which she portrays Megyn Kelly during the sexual harassment scandal around Roger Ailes that shocked Fox News and the world. She looks like Kelly and she sounds like Kelly in the movie trailer and early reactions (there's a reviews embargo at this point) suggest Theron delivers a standout performance! She has one of the most interesting post-Oscar win careers (and I consider she should have been Oscar nominated for 2011's Young Adult) balancing big productions with smaller productions with juicier roles and while I don't feel she's overdue for a 2nd win, she's clearly overdue for a 3rd Oscar nomination since the last one was more than 10 years ago for 2005's North Country! 

Competing for the 4th and 5th spots at the nominees shortlist, I consider there are 2 spots for 4 actresses: Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Alfre Woodard (Clemency), Awkwafina (The Farewell) and Lupita Nyong'o (Us) - so who's ahead at this point of the race? Alfre Woodard is a well-known respected veteran actress and it happens it has been 36 since her last Oscar nomination! She collected rave reviews for her performance in Clemency as a death row warden and considering the level of universal acclaim around her work, the respect her peers and the industry has for her (she's a multiple Emmy winner) and the Academy's need to avoid another #OscarSoWhite, I feel there's a lot of goodwill around the idea of Woodard getting an Oscar nomination this year. After Woodard, I would pick Ronan since she is a clear favorite: not only she has one of the most interesting roles of the year (Little Women's Josephine "Jo" March) but also she's becoming an Academy's darling in the same vein as Kate Winslet - at 25, she's in the run to become the second youngest actress to score 4 Oscar nominations and early reactions about Little Women say she makes a strong and fierce Jo, her charisma fits the role perfectly, and that the movie might end up as a Best Picture contender - which helps her campaign!  

Awkwafina delivers a commanding leading performance in The Farewell, proving she can be both funny and display a lot of acting range during more serious scenes - she raises her own game to a whole new level and way above her scene-stealing comedic abilities, but the AMPAS has always resisted Asian women in Best Actress category and she will need more than a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical win in order to get an Oscar nomination - she'll need a lot of critics support and a SAG nod too! Lupita Nyong'o is simply memorable in Us, but it seems there's some bias against the horror genre when it comes to major award recognition and (specially) Oscar glory... but the buzz is still alive for Nyong'o and if she gets nominated, I think she would be the the first black Oscar winning actress to land a Best Leading Actress Oscar nomination! Then we have Cynthia Erivo for Harriet, who's back in the Best Actress race thanks to the movie's surprising box-office numbers after a lukewarm reception during TIFF. Helen Mirren has yet to be seen in The Good Liar, but the movie's buzz has faded... no matter what, she used to be an AMPAS favorite back in the 2000's and she's overdue for a 5th Oscar nomination, so if she gets the raves she might shake this race a bit! My last spot goes to Jodie Turner-Smith in what promises to be her breakthrough vehicle, Queen & Slim - she plays some kind of black Bonnie (and Kaluuya a kind of a black Clyde) and early word about her performance is positive, but for some reason it didn't catch fire... still, the movie is yet to be released, so things can change in the last minute!

As for Best Actor race... I think it is a bloodbath! So many great contenders, great performances, great narratives... Have a look and please keep in mind it was hard to make this shortlist apart of Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) and Adam Driver (Marriage Story), who are clear "almost locks" not only because of their critically acclaimed performances, but also because of their movies success: Joker is a worldwide box-office sensation and Phoenix's performance as a mentally ill clown turned psychopath is simply brilliant; and Adam Driver benefits from a career momentum, starring in a strong Best Picture contender (and a critics' favorite) and delivering one of the most raved acting turns in recent years. 

Just like The Irishman and Marriage Story, there's another Netflix production that reached the "Oscar contender status": The Two Popes, and according to reviews (and film festival audiences), the movie is great and Jonathan Pryce delivers a beautiful performance as Cardinal Bergoglio (who would become Pope Francis). And while I'm cautious about having a 3rd Netflix movie getting recognized all over the board, I think it can get acting and screenplay, with Pryce being the strongest chance for The Two Popes to get an Oscar nomination. A sympathetic character, a great performance and a respected yet well loved movie... and Pryce would also appeal to the British bloc of AMPAS members. Christian Bale has starred 4 Best Picture movies since 2010 and he was nominated for every performance he delivered in each one of them (winning for 2010's The Fighter, if you remember)... So, considering the critical acclaim for his portray of Ken Miles in James Mangold's Ford v. Ferrari, I believe he will get his 5th Oscar nomination - I believe the movie will perform well at the box-office and it is the kind of movie that will appeal to older and masculine members of the AMPAS and those who love a "good ride of a movie" too - he has the performance, we just need to know how will audiences react to the movie itself. Almodovar has already given an Oscar nomination to one of his most frequent collaborators (Penélope Cruz, Volver) - this year it is his male muse, Antonio Banderas, who's in the run for an Oscar nomination for starring the near-autobiographical Pain and Glory (Dolor y gloria). It is an incredible performance, Banderas' best by far, which has already earned him the Cannes Film Festival prize for Best Actor and an European Film Award nomination for Best Actor... and given the buzz and critical acclaim he received, Banderas is clearly one of the leads of the Best Actor race (and having Pain and Glory competing for Best International Film only helps him!). 

Jojo Rabbit met polarized reactions - some loved it, some not so much, but every critic seemed to agree about the brilliance of Roman Griffin Davis' performance. Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) even mentioned his work here as "one of the best performances ever by a child actor", but a child's path in the Best Actor race... The only child performance to be near a Best Actor nom that I can recall at this moment is Jamie Bell's in Billy Elliot, but he got snubed. Davis will need a SAG and Golden Globe support, plus an all over the board Oscar recognition for Jojo Rabbit in order to get nominated. But being this young and already in the conversation is impressive, which makes me believe he can be a "surprise nominee". Taron Egerton is great as Elton John in Rocketman and the man is campaigning, but the Academy has already gone for a performance/role like this last year (Rami Malek playing Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, who won Best Actor) and despite Rocketman being a more acclaimed than BR ever was, the audiences were less enthusiastic and it is a early year release that will need to revive interest these next weeks! Robert DeNiro re-teams with Scorsese once again and he stars The Irishman, but in some reviews he seems to pale in comparison with Al Pacino or Joe Pesci, despite strong critical support... no matter what Oscar history shows Scorsese gangster movies don't tend to do well in Best Actor category (remember The Departed, Casino, Goodfellas or Mean Streets, with Gangs of New York being the exception). Then, Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood... well, I don't think it is the kind of Oscar-worthy performance, but he's fine and I'm sure the Golden Globes will bite, the AMPAS will embrace the movie all over the board and he’s a big star, so…! DiCaprio might happen! And then, there’s Eddie Murphy winning comeback turn in Dolemite Is My Name in which he’s magnetic and funny, emerging as the only big contender in this category who’s an African-American (and the Academy doesn’t want another #OscarSoWhite, remember?). But it happens Dolemite Is My Name is a Netflix production – will Oscar voters embrace another Netflix movie when they already have The Irishman, Marriage Story and The Two Popes contending for all the above the line categories? If you look at Best Actor: Driver, Pryce and DeNiro all star in Netflix productions!

There's a lot of goodwill towards Laura Dern - not only she got rave reviews for a scene-stealing performance in Marriage Story, but it also seems she's collecting the fruits of the popularity of her TV work and she's part of the Board of Governors of the AMPAS (1 of the only 3 members of the Actor's Branch). So, she's running for an acclaimed performance in a Best Picture contender, she has the talent and she has the industry and Academy's respect - I would say she's a lock. Florence Pugh is having a great 2019: after praised work in Fighting With My Family and Midsonmar, she got Oscar caliber reactions about her performance as Amy March in Little Women and word about the awards screenings say people are in love for her performance - she was described to be "astonishing" as the movie's MVP! She has that kind of charisma that reminds me of Kate Winslet in her younger years and her star is on the rise after Lady Macbeth (2017) to next year's pivotal role in MCU's Black Widow, so I believe the Academy will see her as a safe bet to become an Academy Award nominee. The Farewell might be led by Awkwafina, but Shuzhen Zhao is the heart of the movie and she's sweet, funny and magnetic as Nai Nai. It's impossible not to love her once you watch the movie and it seems voters are responding to the screenings and reactions are quite positive according to predictions forums folks. I'm not predicting a big sweep for Zhao, in fact I can see her missing a Golden Globe nom, but it's easy to see her getting the critics and SAG support in order to get the AMPAS members attentions. If the Academy embraces Jojo Rabbit (which seems to be not for everyone's tastes), then Scarlett Johansson might get a nomination for Best Supporting Actress - she has been collecting raves for her Oscar buzzy performance in Marriage Story, so... a double nom for an actress who was snubed multiple times in the past? Well, it seems she has never been this luminous and warm on screen and her  character is likeable (a strong independent mother in Nazi Germany) and since she has the "overdue" status, then why not a double nom? Two Best Picture contenders and the highest-grossing movie in history this year - the AMPAS loves to recognize actresses when they are at the top of their careers. And Margot Robbie is also another actress at the top of her career these days and I believe the Academy will want to nominate her, but... for which movie? Right now, early word says she's phenomenal in Bombshell as a sexual harassment victim, with a couple of "Oscar clip" scenes, but she also plays Hollywood actress Sharon Tate in Quentin Tarantino's big Oscar contender Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. So, will voters go for the best performance or for the movie they love the most? Right now, I'm predicting Bombshell, but I can also see her missing a nod because of vote splitting between both performances! 

The AMPAS loves Octavia Spencer: she is one of two black actresses to have received 3 Oscar nominations, the first black actress to receive 2 consecutive Academy Award nominations in back-to-back years, and the first black actress to receive an Academy Award nomination after previously winning! This year, Spencer shines in Luce and she has been collecting rave reviews since Sundance, but the movie is no Oscar hopeful except for her performance. In past years, I would say she wouldn't have enough star power in order to land a nom for her alone, but her recent years had me thinking otherwise. She will need all the critics support in order to build her path for the Oscars! Jennifer Lopez is the true star of Hustlers and she's magnetic to watch as Ramona - her best performance in years and her best movie since Out of Sight. But I don't think it is the kind of performance or the kind of movie to give JLo an Oscar nomination... It is her redemption song for years of cinematic trash and flops - I believe she has to prove it again in order to show the Academy she's willing to be a serious actress. The AMPAS is love or hate when it comes to Clint Eastwood's movies, but Richard Jewell looks good and Kathy Bates' part looks juicy to me. She's a great actress and it has been a while since she got a big movie role to display her talents - I'm optimistic, but I want to wait for the first reactions. After 4 Oscar nominations and being considered one of the best working actresses, Annette Bening has yet to get the Oscar win she deserves. Early this year, she had the rave reviews and the right project (The Report) to be in the running for Best Supporting Actress, but it seems the movie lost its buzz... Can Amazon revive the interest around The Report? She delivers such a great performance here and it would be a shame let her go awardsless for this one! Parasite is a true ensemble (master)piece, but if there's one female performance that stands-out it is Cho Yeo-jeong's as the neurotic rich Park mother. She's a scene stealer and her performance is memorable, so if the AMPAS goes crazy in love for Parasite, I can see her getting an Oscar nomination!

Just like Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor is also a bloodbath. We have Brad Pitt rocking his movie star charisma and comedic timing in Once Upon a Time In Hollywood as an actor's stunt-double and best friend - and while the description of his character might make it look like an "unOscary" part, truth is Pitt elevates the character and lights the screen! And Oscar voters buy co-leading performances in this category easily. Another big star entered the Oscar race for Best Supporting Actor: Al Pacino, who plays Jimmy Hoffa in Martin Scorsese's The Irishman. It is said to be a very showy part and Pacino is said to be at the top of his game...! Critics are divided about who's the best in show (Pacino or Pesci?), but they agree both are phenomenal! An Oscar nod for a living legend is coming! As for Tom Hanks, he spent the last decade being snubed for winning acting turns: Captain Phillips (2013), Saving Mr. Banks (2013), Sully (2016) or The Post (2017). This year he's back to Oscar talk with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, where he nails the part of Mr. Rogers! Critics raved his performance and the movie was one of the TIFF's favorites and while it missed its Best Picture appeal, the movie's Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay buzz still lives on! Considering how overdue Hanks is for his 6th Academy Award nomination, I believe he's almost a lock for a nomination. 

Then I believe the following 5 contenders I'm going to mention could easily fill the last 2 spots in the nominees shortlist. Right now I'm predicting Sterling K. Brown to get the 4th spot. He got critical acclaim for his performance in Waves as a domineering father who pushes his son (a popular young wrestler) both physically and mentally to be better until tragedy hits the family - it is a dramatic meaty part and it is said he has a lot of "Oscar clips". Waves was a Telluride Film Festival sensation and it has A24 backing its Oscar campaign and despite not being one of the strongest bets for Best Picture, I believe A24 will be able to push it for Best Supporting Actor (and Best Original Screenplay) and Brown is a respected name in the industry. The fifth spot goes to Joe Pesci, who plays Russell Bufalino a mob boss - this is first movie appearance after 2010's Love Ranch and it seems he nails the role, delivering a subtle yet memorable acting turn. And since The Irishman is set to be one of this year's biggest Oscar players, getting two Best Supporting Actor nominees is possible! 

The AMPAS loves tales of redemption and mercy and Jamie Foxx is said to be phenomenal in Just Mercy as a death row inmate. Reviews suggest it is his best performance since in Ray (2004) and Collateral (2004) and since Foxx is a big star, I can see him being able to get the movie's only Oscar nomination if the AMPAS doesn't go for Just Mercy over the board - plus, he would be a "diversity pick" too. Parasite seems to be unstoppable at this early point of the awards race and people are already talking about Song Kang-ho for Best Supporting Actor - not only he carries the last act of Parasite on his shoulders but he also has a great reputation in South Korea as one of the best working actors. Don't be surprised if Song Kang-ho starts popping-up here and there during awards season! People love The Two Popes, which features Jonathan Pryce and Anthony Hopkins at the top of their games - and Hopkins is going to be promoted in Best Supporting Actor, despite the movie being a two men show! It is said Hopkins will not campaign, which will hurt his chances of getting nominated, but the man is such a living legend and a gifted actor that I can see AMPAS members voting for him no matter what. Another lead actor being promoted for Best Supporting Actor, Willem Dafoe is clearly going all "category fraud" - don't get me wrong, he delivers an amazing performance in The Lighthouse! But will Academy people nominate him for a third year in a row when it seems he can't beat Pitt or Pacino? The Lighthouse is good, but weird and it can't compete with the Oscar caliber of OUATIHollywood or The Irishman. The last, but not the least, Alan Alda might benefit from Marriage Story Oscar buzz and from the ensemble acting raves. He's said to be great as a warm divorce attorney and he's one of the most likeable characters in the whole movie - plus, people seem to simply love him! Sometimes voting is all about loving the person.

Martin Scorsese brings a great gangster epic - The Irishman - which happens to meet universal critical acclaim and to have the Netflix machine backing the movie and its Oscar campaign: a lock for a Best Director nomination for Marty. It is said to be his greatest movie since The Departed, so...! Next it comes Quentin Tarantino with Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, a nostalgic love letter to Hollywood, to movies and the LA dreams - it is something quite different from Tarantino's violent, bloody and noisy previous works. In fact, Hollywood is so sweet and contemplative that you can stare at the movie and fully observe it was such a critical and box-office success, I see Tarantino going along with the Best Picture buzz and get a Best Director nod too. And we also have Bong Joon-ho who presented us a masterpiece - Parasite, the foreign language movie that's becoming a cultural and box-office phenomenon specially considering it is a non-Hollywood movie! It's a director's movie and Bong is at the top of his craft and I believe critics awards and the DGA will go nuts for him and the Academy will bite (honestly, I can see him being snubed by the HFPA for the Globes, but that's only). Will Greta Gerwig be the first female director to be nominated twice for Best Director? Early reactions about Little Women suggest it is a great movie and it will be a huge contender across the board and since the AMPAS has already showed some love for Gerwig back in the days of Lady Bird (2017), I can see her getting her 2nd nom for Best Director - she's still fresh and talented and she can be the face of a great year for female directors in general. The fifth spot goes for Taika Waititi for Jojo Rabbit. I was divided between Waititi, Baumbach and Mendes, but I believe Waititi accomplishes what seems to be the most impressive creative result in movie - he was able to create a satire from the Nazi regime and Jojo Rabbit is gaining the "crowd pleaser" status. Plus, Waititi is such a charismatic figure and he's a delight to watch and listen to during the campaign - and he's already campaigning while promoting the movie! 

Noah Baumbach also has great chances for Marriage Story - it is considered his most mature movie to date and it is executed with a steady yet sensitive hand. Of course Baumbach is an auteur, so it is always tricky to separate the director from the writer... Marriage Story might not be a showy movie of epic proportions, but it will be a big contender for Best Director. Speaking of epic proportions, 1917 being be a directing showcase for Sam Mendes. Fresh from leaving the 007 franchise, Mendes brings a war epic that looks amazing judging from the movie trailer. He was never able to get a 2nd Oscar nomination for Best Director since he won for American Beauty, but 1917 shows something very different from the marital dramas or the spy adventures he's well known for directing - and AMPAS members do love war epics! Less likely to get Oscar glory in the Best Director field, we have: Lulu Wang for The Farewell (a major early contender, but the movie has been losing Best Picture heat and Gerwig surpassed Wang for Best Director consideration); James Mangold for Ford v. Ferrari (I believe the movie will get a Best Picture nomination, which helps for sure, but it seems to be more of "a really nice ride" than a director's gem); and Marielle Heller for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (the movie is said to benefit from Heller's sensitive directing hand, but the AMPAS doesn't go for female directors easily and both Gerwig and Wang seem to be ahead of her in the Best Director race and with movies that suit the Academy's tastes better).

The Academy tends to use Best Original Screenplay as a category to honor great movies that didn't get Best Picture but still some indie darlings. So apart from Marriage Story and Once Upon a Time In Hollywood (the two frontrunners in this category), I found The Farewell to be a big contender here even bigger than Parasite (which has a lot of Best Picture buzz). The fifth spots would be between Waves and Bombshell, but then I went for Waves - A24 knows how to campaign its movies in this category and Waves got enough critical praise and it is said to have an original narrative. On the other hand, Bombshell takes on some stories of former Fox employees and uses them to tell a story about a sexual harassment scandal - and Hollywood supports the #MeToo! I don't know, I guess I'm keeping with Waves for now, but it has to do well with critics in this category! Knives Out did great during TIFF and it earned a Best Original Screenplay contender status - I Rian Johnson was close of getting nominated for Looper some years ago, so, will voters apologize with a Best Original Screenplay nod for Knives Out? Pedro Almodovar is a great director, but he's also a great writer and Pain and Glory is Oscar buzzy enough to land a Best Original Screenplay besides Best International Film and Best Director - Almodovar is a European legend and he hasn't been nominated since Talk to Her (2002), for which he won Best Original Screenplay. Scott Z. Burns had great chances for Best Original Screenplay for The Report - the right topic, great dialogue and a great movie, but it has been losing buzz and I don't see Amazon campaigning for it. A big wildcard: The Peanut Butter Falcon - I know it might be wishful thinking, but it is a movie that really touched me and I believe it can touch the Academy members if they go to see it!

I think it is a weak year for Best Adapted Screenplay... Waititi is likely to get a Best Adapted Screenplay for his satire Jojo Rabbit, even if the movie fails to get across the board nominations, and the same I would say about Greta Gerwig's Little Women! The Irishman benefits from its Best Picture buzz and Steve Zaillian is no stranger to the Academy. As for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood... well, I don't see it in the run for Best Picture unless the precursors prove me otherwise, but I think it has enough love in order to land a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. As for Anthony McCarten's adaptation of his own play, The Two Popes is beloved, but I believe if there's a strong entering the Oscar race they'll go for it - like Richard Jewell, for example. Blinded by the Light is one of the best movies of the year by far, but it is low-key and there are few people paying attention to it, but you'll never know. Joker's biggest weakness is the screenplay, but if they really go for the movie, the voters will go for it all the way, including for Best Adapted Screenplay anyways - and let's be honest, it has some damn killer memorable lines! The Good Liar had a lot of buzz a few months ago, but it just disappeared... I'm still looking for the movie. As for James Mangold & friends for Ford v. Ferrari... well, maybe it should be higher in my predictions, but I believe it will be a movie that will get Best Picture, Best Actor and multiple below the line categories' noms, since its action/racing sequences will be more of a showcase for sound and editing departments rather for screenplay - yet, I might be wrong and the movie goes deeper than I think.