This time, we go "below the line", which includes all the visual and sound categories - Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hair and Best Visual Effects (for the "visual") and then Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing (for the "sound"). The thing about predicting these categories is that, Best Editing aside, they don't have to be serve as a vehicle for Best Picture contenders. Of course it helps, but craft can be the only thing that matters in these categories, no matter the movie "status" in the Best Picture race - you only have to consider "this movie has to be seen".
So, let's start:
In the last 20 years, only 1 Best Picture winner wasn't nominated in this category - 2014's Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) - so, Best Editing and Best Picture are like best pals. Of course they also honour pure editing craft here, not everything is about Best Picture here, but when you're predicting this category you need to think about the balance between Best Picture chances and the editing work itself. In that vein, I'm predicting Ford v. Ferrari to be a major player here - it is a great movie with a showy and exquisite editing work and even if it fails to hit Best Picture (which I don't believe it will happen), it even remains a top contender for a win (Ford v. Ferrari review soon, by the way!). We also have the great female editor Thelma Schoonmaker competing with Martin Scorsese's The Irishman - reviews highlight her work and her previous collaborations with Scorsese have earned her a ton of awards and accolades and I expect no different, specially considering The Irishman is an awards favorite at this early point of the awards season. Personally, not a big enthusiast of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and I would give up of Fred Raskin's editing work for, let's say Jeff Groth's in Joker, but I believe the AMPAS will embrace Once Upon a Time in Hollywood visual beauty all over the board. As for Parasite, it features an exquisite editing work and since it is becoming one of the biggest cinematic sensations of the year, I expect the Academy to embrace this one in its below the line "golden category". Then, I picked Marriage Story - it might not be showy editing, but it only has to be sensitive and precise enough (and people say the editing work is great during the fight scene, catching the actors' micro-expressions). Plus, the AMPAS is trying to include women in its below the line categories and Jennifer Lame has already proved herself before with movies like Frances Ha, Manchester by the Sea or Hereditary.
Editing Taika Waititi's cinematic craziness sounds like a big deal, but it seems Jojo Rabbit really delivers, so if the Academy loves this movie, I can see Tom Eagles getting Jennifer Lame's spot easily. 1917 is said to be a "one shot movie", so, there's not much to cut, right? But Lee Smith is such a gifted editor...! I don't know what to think! War movies tend to do well in this category, but the last time a movie with a continuous take entered the Oscar race, it didn't get a nom here - I'm referring to Birdman, which actually won Best Picure. Jeff Groth's editing work in Joker is great, both intimate yet it never loses the sense of pace, but will the Academy go for such a controversial movie here? Little Women is still under the reviews embargo, but will the switches between the narrative of the younger sisters v. the narrative of the older sisters catch the Oscar voters' eye? The Safdie brothers' movies are well known for their use of music, the colors and the electric editing works, but none of their previous works have met Oscar recognition - Uncut Gems might be the exception, since it has been collecting rave reviews, editing included and people are paying attention to this one. And A24 seems to be focused in The Farewell and Uncut Gems, so it will have a campaign I guess".
Have you seen 1917's trailer? Cinematography looks amazing and Deakins is just a master DP, so... It's a no brainer prediction. As for Richardson's cinematography in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, the movie is beautifully shot and the combinations of colors and sunlight are simply beautiful to look at. Rodrigo Prieto is no stranger to the AMPAS and he showed some great work deserving of an Oscar nom for Best Cinematography in The Irishman - not only for the cinematography work itself, but also for shooting a whole movie while having the needs of the use of the de-aging CGI in mind! Joker is dark and sad and Gotham city is a place full of evil and moral decadence: Lawrence Sher provides a cinematography work that fits the movie tone perfectly, a work that elevates Joker well above the visual style of any other superhero movie. The Lighthouse... it happens Academy members simply love black & white movies and this one is outstanding cinematography work people will watch because of Dafoe's performance (the question is: will enough Oscar voters watch it?).
I wouldn't be surprised if Oscar voters go for Ad Astra instead of The Lighthouse - it is a visual marvel, mostly thanks to the talented Hoyte van Hoytema's cinematography work, which I believe might lead to a Best Cinematography nomination - you know, Brad Pitt effect! Terrence Malick's movies tend to feature breathtaking cinematography and A Hidden Life is no exception... the thing is Jörg Widmer is a stranger to the Academy and A Hidden Life will need a big award push so it gets a spot in this category. Little Women's trailer showed some beautifully shot scenes, but Le Saux has never met big awards recognition nor an Oscar nom - will Little Women be beautiful enough and big enough so he gets his first nod? Ford v. Ferrari is doing great at the box-office and people are loving the movie, but the biggest "WOWs" come from editing and sound departments... still, Papamichael is a great DP and his work in Ford v. Ferrari is solid - he might get in. An out of the box pick: Shadow, a martial arts movie from a Chinese master filmmaker, is a visual spectacle and the Academy sometimes goes for foreign movies no one was expecting to see nominated in this category.
The Nazi Germany full of colors and child elements... beautiful production design elements from a movie some people are falling in love with - I'm counting on a Best Production Design Academy Award nomination for Jojo Rabbit. The late 60's Los Angeles, the Hollywood life, the movie sets... Everything's perfect so Once Upon a Time in Hollywood scores a nomination in this category. War movies, battle camps, mud and other "not-beautiful" things also catch the Academy's eye and that's why I'm including Sam Mendes' 1917 here. Period pieces often do well here and Little Women has a lot of places to show details: from the March sisters rooms to the Lawrence mansion to Rome, I can see a lot of opportunities here for Gonchor and Kaufman (and I'm a big fan of Gonchor's work in Hail, Caesar!). The last chapter of the Star Wars saga, the first two chapters of the newest trilogy failed some Oscar recognition in this category, but it did well with other awards - and this time it seems they are going epic!
Production design also tells the social story of each of the Parasite's families and it is a big element, but Oscars don't tend to go for contemporary architecture... and that's the only reason I'm not including Lee Ha-jun in my top 5. Ad Astra features some great production design works, but if Academy goes futuristic, I guess they will go for Star Wars. Tim Burton's movies tend to do well in this category and while Dumbo is a weak cinematic effort (thin character study), it stills great visually... but the overall critical reception hurts. Cats sets look great, but the movie keeps looking bad after the 2nd trailer! Ford v. Ferrari might get in here, but just like in Best Cinematography, it is more about editing and sound!
Pretty dresses, gowns and beautiful actresses to wear them... that's why I'm picking Little Women, Jojo Rabbit and Downton Abbey as my top 3 contenders in this category. The first two, I predict them as Best Picture players and Downton Abbey movie was a box-office success (from a cultural phenomenon TV series), so they look solid to me. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood also has nice chances in this category: I know the Academy prefers period costume design works, but how can you resist some late 60's Hollywood glamour? Remember La La Land (and LLL was not this showy). "Showy" is the right word for Rocketman's costumes - and I believe Julian Day was close to a nomination last year for Bohemian Rhapsody, so I guess it will happen for Rocketman!
Lukewarm to warm reviews, The Aeronauts might not be a great awards player, but it features some great costume design work from Alexandra Byrne - and voters went for her for another lukewarm movie (Mary Queen of Scots), so why not going for her a 2nd time? Or will voters go for "Arabian nights" mode and honour Disney's Aladdin? Disney's live-action remakes have been doing good in Best Costume Design (Alice In Wonderland, Cinderella, Maleficient or Beauty and the Beast) and it's one of my personal favorite contenders I must say, but Disney has a lot of movies to campaign this year in bigger categories (Avengers: Endgame, Star Wars, The Lion King, Toy Story 4 or Frozen II). Still, Aladdin was a big box-office hit (more than $1 Billion worldwide), so maybe it's worthy. Ruth E. Carter is fresh from last year's Oscar glory and she's back with Dolemite Is My Name extravagant jackets, hats and everything - will they want to keep this category Netflix free? It is the same concern I have about The King's chances... it isn't showy work, it's actually mostly armors and some basic clothing if you exclude Lily-Rose Depp appearance, but it still is solid work with nice colors and details. Harriet Tubman is an American hero, but her biopic Harriet feels uninspired... will they go for the clothing? It's not bad work at all!
Since they expanded this category to 5 nominees, the race is wide open, which allows more diversity too.... Bombshell's makeup work did an amazing work with Charlize Theron, Kidman and Lithgow judging from the trailer alone, so, it's a lock here. Avengers: Endgame has a lot of showy characters with a lot of makeup work (and this is "more" and "better" work) - Guardians of the Galaxy movies have already gotten recognized here, so I'm expecting Endgame to be as well. Turning the pretty boy Taron Egerton into the not so sexy bald Elton John was a great achievement and the work is showy, so, I'm picking Rocketman too. Some details turned Margot Robbie into Sharon Tate and more little aspects of the movie, from the hairstyle to the on-set changes for Rick Dalton, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is expected to show here too! Some historical accurate haircuts, plus some makeup to Henry IV's skin disease, The King shows some detailed work, that might not be showy, but I believe Netflix might be able to sell.
The burned faces and scars in Us or the differences between the original characters and their doppelgangers... it can show up here! Joker is not just makeup but the act of doing the makeup is also part of the story - will they see Joker this way? Younger March sisters v. older March sisters plus all those actresses' hairs to work with - makeup work that doesn't scream makeup in Little Women... It's a maybe. As for The Irishman - is the de-aging for Best Visual Effects or it can also be included in Best Makeup & Hair? I guess some voters might feel the same way. Turning the gorgeous Angelina Jolie into an evil witch... It's all about a good makeup artist - I'm not predicting it, but I wouldn't be surprised if Maleficient: Mistress of Evil gets nominated here!
The highest-grossing movie ever relies mostly on its visual effects team's magic and it's a stunning work of epic proportions - a Best Visual Effects Academy Award nomination for Avengers: Endgame, please. And the same could be said about The Lion King's photorealistic animals and stunning sequences, so another Best Visual Effects nod for Disney, this time for The Lion King remake. No Star Wars movie (not even Rogue One nor Solo) ever missed a Best Visual Effects Oscar nomination, so Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker will be no exception for sure. The so-talked de-aging technology used in Martin Scorsese's The Irishman is said to be both amazing and distracting (sometimes it is not perfect, but the achievement of being able to de-age an actor this way must be recognized for sure). Another space adventure, Ad Astra is magnificient visually and I believe the Academy will want to honour this movie somewhere (this year's First Man, awards-speaking?).
The Aeronauts, Dumbo, Aladdin and Godzilla: King of Monsters might failed to be critical darlings (well, The Aeronauts has a fair share of positive reception), but their visual effects works received praise and sometimes the Academy is unpredictable in this category and they just don't care for a potential nominee's MC or RT's score for this category. Ford v. Ferrari is a case of practical visual effects the Academy sometimes goes for, so if the movie is as successful as I'm predicting to be, maybe I can have it higher in my predictions.
In case you haven't heard Michael Giacchino's score for Jojo Rabbit, just do it. It's amazing and I'm expecting the Academy to go for it (plus, Giacchino is an Oscar nominee already, which turns everything easier). John Williams is back only for Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker, for another epic score and since he received Oscar nods for Episode VII and Episode VIII, I'm expecting he finishes the trilogy with another one. Alexandre Desplat has been working a lot and it seems the Academy has learned how to love him - he's an Oscar regular these days and early reactions to Little Women mentioned his score as one of the movie's strongest points! Thomas Newman is another Oscar regular, but he is yet to win his golden man - he's a 14 times nominee! War movies like 1917 tend to feature epic and emotionally resonant scores and Newman is one of the greatest masters of his craft. A female composer nominated? Why not?! Hildur Guðnadóttir's score for Joker is outstanding and the movie is highly popular... but this category doesn't embrace women that often and (if nominated) she would only be the sixth woman to get it.
Randy Newman is a legend and it has been a long time since he competed for Best Score (but he's a Best Original Song regular) - Marriage Story is a big awards player and audiences seem moved by Newman's score...! Beltrami almost got it last year for A Quiet Place, for sure! This year he's back in the race with Ford v. Ferrari score and I believe he's a big threat. Alan Silvestri has never met major recognition for his Avengers scores, but he made the finalist shorlist last year (ended up nod-less), so there's some love for his work - will Endgame be the vehicle? Ad Astra also features a great score, but competition is fierce and critics mentioned visuals more than the score. A Hidden Life features an amazing score from James Newton Howard... but will Oscar voters go for Malick's latest? Last time Howard got an Oscar nod, he was the sole Oscar nomination for Defiance, which show the Academy has him some respect!
This is Disney's category, but I expect a message of freedom (Harriet) and a song from an entertainment legend like Andrew Lloyd Webber (Cats) to make the final shortlist as well. And there's also Rocketman with a new Elton John's song, which also makes for a solid contender.
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