- BEST ACTRESS
"The bloodbath". Best Actress 2022 race is simply a warzone for predictions folks. I believe there are 5 spots for 10 legit contenders plus Jennifer Hudson (Respect), who didn't make my shortlist. The safer player here is Kristen Stewart, who portrays Princess Diana in Pablo Larraín's Spencer - her performance was met with universal critical acclaim and she's having a killer early awards season, with tribute prizes, critics groups nominations and tons of Oscar buzz as the only "serious" candidate for a win (since Venice Film Festival, actually). But what about general audiences aren't embracing the movie as critics? Still, a nomination seems locked for her (and she's in the right moment of her career after raved turns in small indies post-Twilight career phase). Next, it comes Nicole Kidman who plays Lucille Ball in Aaron Sorkin's Being the Ricardos... and while the movie is not being received with rave reviews from critics, Kidman is. This way, she's overcoming the initial backlash against her casting as the comedy icon by being the best thing about the movie she stars in. Plus, Kidman is way overdue for her 5th Oscar nomination, so it will play on her favor. Now, we are entering a shaky area of my predictions... Rachel Zegler is the lead star of Steven Spielberg's take on West Side Story musical and she got rave reviews and a surprise NBR win for Best Actress! Reviews are there for her performance and the movie is considered a Best Picture favorite! Zegler will land an easy Golden Globe nomination for sure and since the AMPAS wants to keep away from controversy, nominating a Latina descent will look good for the press. Ridley Scott's House of Gucci received mixed reviews, but both critics and audiences considered Lady Gaga's performance a powerhouse. It is - in fact - a true star turn, with more layers and shades than her previous Oscar nominated performance in A Star Is Born! Plus, she won the prestigious NYFCC Award for Actress, she has been a constant name in early critics groups awards Best Actress shortlists and she has a lot of media attention, which means... free campaign! Then, maybe Lady Gaga's main enemy: Alana Haim, the star of Licorice Pizza, a movie that is also backed by MGM (just like House of Gucci), but...! Unlike House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza opened to rave reviews from critics and the same amount of love from audiences and it has received lots of attention (and wins) from critics prizes so far - an early favorite for Best Original Screenplay and one of the frontrunner in Best Picture and Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson) - Haim might not be a global superstar like Gaga but she sure is a revelation in one of the most acclaimed movies of the year. And the AMPAS has no problems about nominating acting debuts in this category.
Frances McDormand is an AMPAS favorite and she should never be underestimated, specially when she has a juicy role like Lady Macbeth in Joel Coen's The Tragedy of Macbeth. The movie has been collecting rave reviews and a big couple of award mentions, but the fact is... McDormand hasn't received any mention so far...! Although I predict her to pop-up at BAFTA and SAG, the thing is I might be wrong and McDormand might really watch the ceremony as a non-Best Actress nominee this time. Isn't it strange that Washington, the cinematography and even the screenplay all received some nomination at this point, but McDormand didn't? Then, a "new industry darling", Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter. Colman is an actress of titanic talents and she is the receipient of an Oscar, an Emmy, Golden Globes, BAFTA Awards, etc... but what about The Lost Daughter? The performance was met with tons of critical acclaim but some reactions say the movie might be hard to love. I can see a scenario where Colman gets critics love, a Golden Globe nomination and then fails the Oscar nomination somehow (Netflix's plate is really full this season). Tessa Thompson delivers one of the best performances of the year in Passing, but she isn't getting the Oscar buzz she deserves for her work. It's a beautiful performance, not a showy one, but a delicate acting turn. And since I can see Passing getting more love across the board than The Lost Daughter, maybe Thompson gets a boost on time (despite Passing not being an awards top priority for Netflix)! Jessica Chastain is overdue for a third Oscar nomination and her role as Tammy in The Eyes of Tammy Faye gives the actress plenty of juicy material to deliver a showy performance, but... the movie itself is forgetable and it was received with tepid reviews and it was considered a box-office flop. Can she recover? Finally, Penélope Cruz got some crazy Oscar buzz after her Volpi Cup win back in Venice for her performance in Pedro Almodóvar's Madres Paralelas, but it hasn't translated to awards love across the Atlantic Ocean. It is Cruz's best performance ever (better than Volver's) and I hope awards groups pay attention to her how brilliant she is in this one.
- BEST ACTOR
Not a "bloodbath" like Best Actress, but still nicely competitive... Best Actor race features my personal favorite performance of the year: Benedict Cumberbatch in Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog. It's an extremely complex portray of anger of a man who undercovers his loneliness and sensibility beneath his rough masculinity. It's a fascinating performance that has already earned Cumberbatch the NYFCC Award for Best Actor! Considering the Oscar buzz around The Power of the Dog and the massive Oscar campaign Netflix is building around the movie, Cumberbatch feels like a safe bet at a Best Actor nod. Will Smith shines as Richard Williams in King Richard - it is a simple movie, a true crowd-pleaser that only elevates above other movies of the same genre because of Smith's commanding performance. He ignites the screen with charisma in a soulful performance unlike anything we've seen from him ever since The Pursuit of Happiness. Will Smith seems locked for an Oscar nomination. A living legend, Denzel Washington is back on Oscar talk thanks to his acclaimed performance as Macbeth in Joel Coen's The Tragedy of Macbeth. With no surprise, he commands the screen and delivers what some consider an "astonishing" performance. The movie seems to be an Apple TV+ award priority (alongside CODA) and those screenings in IMAX did leave an impression... and if AMPAS members get invited to those screenings, I believe the movie (and the performance) will be impossible to ignore. The 4th spot goes to Andrew Garfield... but it's a TOP 3-worthy performance, actually! Garfield totally embodies Jonathan Larson and turns him into an electifying character, full of life, full of talent, full of soul in Lin-Manuel Miranda's tick, tick... BOOM! Garifeld has never been better and the man does can sing! He's a clear favorite for a Golden Globe win for Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, which will provide a huge boost at the peak of the awards season! And since Netflix is backing the movie, I believe he will get his 2nd Oscar nom. The last seat goes to Joaquin Phoenix, for his performance in C'mon c'mon...! I know the AMPAS has never recognized Phoenix in his "subtle acting mode", but the movie delivers an emotional punch and that's because of the screenplay and the performances, Phoenix included. Since I believe C'mon c'mon is A24 best chance at Oscar glory and since Phoenix is such a big star, I bet he will be able to get his name in the Best Actor shortlist coming Oscar nominations announcement morning!
I don't underestimate Belfast's Oscar chances, since it seems the kind of movie AMPAS members just fall in love with: a nostalgic B&W drama with some lovely performances, including a raved acting debut from Jude Hill. Academy members don't tend to go for child actors in this category, but the Academy has changed a lot in the last few year and the actors branch might want to embrance Hill's performance. Leonardo DiCaprio can be an amazing comedy actor and he's getting good notices for his performance in Don't Look Up... it doesn't fit the typical "Oscar role" and the movie got mostly positive reviews only (not raves), but Leonardo DiCaprio is a huge star and Netflix is backing the movie's awards campaign, so, he's a possibility! Then, Peter Dinklage who stars Joe Wright's musical Cyrano - the movie got great reviews, but the Oscar buzz is quiet surprisingly! He got snubed a long time ago for his performance in The Station Agent and Cyrano seems to offer the actor the right role and the right movie... but he will need MGM to campaign more and better for the movie! Nicolas Cage seems to be back to great roles after a hiatus from quality movies... and the fact almost everyone made fun of him only makes his performance in Pig a lot more impactful. It's a bravura dramatic performance! God, I missed this Nicholas Cage. Too bad I have the feeling he will be this year's Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems awards-wise, although the comeback narrative of an Academy Award winning actor might stick with Academy members! The last spot: Simon Rex for Red Rocket... yes! An actor no one used to take seriously seems to have finally found the right acting showcase for his talents as a former porn actor trying to put his life back on track in Sean Baker's latest. Baker is a storyteller of underdogs' tales (Tangerine, The Florida Project and now Red Rcoket) and he seems to love to direct acting underdogs too. I don't believe Rex will be able to make it to an Oscar nomination, BUT it's early awards season and you will never know. No matter what, being taken seriously as an actor is a huge reward for Rex for sure!
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