Academy Awards 2022 nominees predictions: 1st ROUND, December (Best Picture, Director and Screenplay categories)

This Oscar predictions season is going wild: so many good contenders for few slots available... AND there have been weekly changes in my predictions, the way that I can't keep the writing pace and my predictions of today wouldn't make sense when compared with my predictions 1 month ago. That's why I'm going to publish my Academy Awards 2022 nominees predictions for EVERY ABOVE THE LINE CATEGORIES today (acting categories coming later). 

So, let's get started:

• BEST PICTURE

So, first, let's make something clear: every member of the AMPAS (from all the branches) gets a ballot and ranks their top choices for best picture, then a film has to get 5% of first-place votes to qualify for a Best Picture nomination. Considering the Academy has announced that the best picture race will return to 10 nominations this year - which eliminates the unpredictability of the number - we have to consider "Which movies can be the clear favorite ones?". Which means that a movie needs to be loved more than "just appreciated". Another important issue is the fact AMPAS is now composed by elder and more conservative members, but they did invited a lot of younger and fresher artistic voices to join the gang. So, I believe this year's Best Picture race will benefit not only of the 10 nom slots, but also from the "clash" of conservative/fresh #1 picks.

Belfast is the TIFF's People's Choice Award winner and it also won the big prizes at Mill Valley and Middleburg, besides being a Telluride favorite and getting amazing reviews - it is a crowd-pleaser with the style and shine of a prestige movie (and the great Focus Features is backing the movie), Netflix's big Oscar hope is Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog - the acclaimed drama got good notices at Venice and it kept a fantastic run in the film festival circuit, emerging as one of the most admired (and loved) movies of the year. As for Spielberg's West Side Story, first reactions still fresh, but they all say the movie is AMAZING... and sometimes what the AMPAS really wants (and needs) is an epic love story, no matter how old they are. Sci-fi epics might be a though call, but Dune: Part One managed to build some huge Oscar buzz and it does appeal to the younger members of the Academy... plus, it will be an across the board contender, which only increases its Best Picture odds! A more traditional and smaller production, King Richard is the standard family-sports drama that's elevated by an inspiring lead performance and this formula seems to appeal to everyone. Paul Thomas Anderson is no stranger to the Academy and if he was able to "sell" Phantom Thread in order to get it a Best Picture nomination, it seems the feel-good vibes of Licorice Pizza will make the job easier... plus, MGM is such a historic figure and it will be campaigning for PTA's latest. Another Netflix contender is Adam McKay's Don't Look Up - and while laugh-out-loud comedies might not fit the "Oscar model", it seems it has a sharp screenplay and a stellar cast that elevate the movie's "pedigree" to a... wait for it... cosmic level! And Netflix will push it for sure! Del Toro's upcoming Nightmare Alley... I don't know what to think, but I loved what I saw in the movie trailer and that noir vibe was fascinating...! And since Del Toro has already proved himself in the past and considering the all-star cast and the fact it is Searchlight's top award campaign priority, I can't ignore its Best Picture potential. A24 might not be a campaign giant, but they sure know how to pick a movie to distribute and it happens C'mon c'mon has been making some people cry and laugh and leave the theater thinking about it... if it is a movie that sticks in people's minds, then it is a movie that will be voted! Finally, I believe there will be an Amazon movie in the run for Best Picture, but my question is: will it be A Hero or Being the Ricardos? A Hero might capitalize its auteur prestige (the great Asghar Farhadi) that will attract international cinema lovers (besides the rave reviews that say it truly is a narrative triumph), besides being a top contender for Best International Film (Iran submission) and Best Original Screenplay, but then Being the Ricardos has A-list leads (Kidman and Bardem) and it is written and directed by Aaron Sorkin... I am going for A Hero.

Netflix also has Passing (racial issue, socially relevant) and The Lost Daughter (Olivia Colman starring vehicle and a screenplay favorite) as Oscar vehicles, but I believe they are not strong enough to be able to break in the TOP 10 just yet... maybe critics will boost its Best Picture heat. Larraín's Princess Diana thriller/drama/horror movie Spencer has been collecting great reviews, Stewart is a Best Actress favorite and NEON is great with campaigning, but I feel the movie might be a difficult one for most of those who watch it. CODA is a lovely movie, but this year's competition is fierce and it was an early release... I see it as a screenplay player more than a Best Picture one. The Tragedy of Macbeth is not the AMPAS cup of tea and preferential balloting doesn't favor it since it is a movie people seem to admire and notice its quality, but they do not really LOVE it. Can Flee be the first animated documentary able to crack Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary, Best International Film (Denmark's submission) and... Best Picture? I believe NEON will set up a huge campaign to make it happen, so let's pay attention. Japan's Drive My Car is getting more love each day... can it be loved outside of the Best International Film realm? Lin-Emanuel Miranda's directorial debut tick, tick... BOOM! is impressive and it pays homage to every struggling artist, but the movie is really about the amazing Andrew Garfield performance and that incredible sound work... or are good music and incredible acting enough? Being on Netflix side sure helps. Finally, Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch is a great movie, but there's not that much Oscar buzz above the line. Why? I don't know...

• BEST DIRECTOR

It was about time for women to get the recognition they deserve in film industry and it seems Jane Campion will be the face of that cause in the Best Director race: a category made of mostly male nominees every year (last year was the first time two female directors were nominated in this category, with Zhao taking the prize home). With all the acclaim The Power of the Dog has been getting, Campion feels like a lock here. The AMPAS loves when a director tells his personal story on-screen and since it seems everybody loves Belfast, Kenneth Branagh might well follow Cuarón's footsteps (remember 2018's Roma?). As for Dennis Villeneuve, he is in full control of his craft and it shows in Dune: Part One, which combines acting, narrative and visuals beautifully, elevating the sci-fi space epic to another level... only a capable director with a sensitive vision would be able to give a soul to such an extravaganza production. It seems Steven Spielberg has always dreamed about directing a musical, so he went for something that means something to him: the classic West Side Story! The final result is said to be brilliant, so... let's welcome the master back to the race as a top contender! Last spot goes to Paul Thomas Anderson, an AMPAS regular who has crafted what is said to be a beautiful coming-of-age tale set in the Valley - Licorice Pizza - which was with received rave reviews from critics. With good performances and the exceptional story-telling direction PTA's is known for, Licorice Pizza might not be a showy directorial product but it is a sensitive one.

An awesome trend in recent years: the directors branch nominates an international director for an international/foreign language film! I applaud these recent picks (Michael Haneke, Thomas Vinterberg or Paweł Pawlikowski, Cuarón or Bong Joon-ho, for example), so will we see Julia Ducournau (Titane) or Asghar Farhadi (A Hero) nominated in this category? It can happen! Both direct two of the most acclaimed international films of the year and both films were picked as official submissions for Best International Film. Ducournau is a vibrant and fresh female voice in the international circuit while Farhadi is a respected auteur and a magnificient cinematic storyteller - both would make for worthy nominees. Spencer is NEON's big push and it is a very specific product of a director's mind... will the AMPAS be impressed by Larraín? Spencer is not an easy movie to watch. Guillermo del Toro's upcoming Nightmare Alley looks very good on paper (and in the trailer) and early reactions say the movie is somewhat complex but it embraces the noir genre like no other movie in recent movies. Will it be the AMPAS cup of tea? Del Toro imaginarium is beautiful for sure, but is it Oscary enough? Finally, an impressive directorial debut, Rebecca Hall's work in Passing is sublime and delicate... but will the directors branch notice that?

• BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Paul Thomas Anderson is one of the most respected names in the industry and one of the most beloved figures in the AMPAS... with 8 Academy Award nominations (4 for writing, 2 for directing and 2 for producing Best Picture nominees) it feels like it's time for him to take home some gold - and Licorice Pizza is just one of the most acclaimed movies of the year with one of the most raved screenplays so far. PTAnderson feels like a natural future Oscar nominee for Licorice Pizza. Next, we have Kenneth Branagh who penned his awards buzzy Belfast, based on his own childhood memories - the movie is one of the Best Picture frontrunners and a Best Original Screenplay nomination seems almost inevitable. Then, Adam McKay is back with another quirky comedy - Netflix's Don't Look Up -  about a very serious issue (in this case, an end-of-the-world scenario) and while official reviews aren't out yet, early reviews suggest a strong and smart social commentary and some laugh-out-loud lines... plus, the writing branch nominated him for his previous efforts before (Vice and The Big Short, winning for the later). If there's a slow emerging Oscar player these days it is Mike Mills' C'mon c'mon, which has been breaking some audiences hearts lately - it said to be a very sensitive and "human" story, with a sublime screenplay. The AMPAS has gone for Mills before (that amazing yet unexpected nod for 20th Century Women!), so I believe they will not hesitate to invite him to join the party (and A24 is backing this one as they backed Mills' previous film). Finally, the last spot was though to pick, but I went for Asghar Fahardi for his work in A Hero - he's one of the biggest international auteurs and A Hero was selected as Iran's official submission for Best International Film. Fahardi was nominated for Best Original Screenplay back in 2012 for A Separation (2012) and since so many critics raved the movie's writing and complex narrative, I believe the writers branch will go for Fahardi once again.

King Richard is regarded as one of the favorite Best Picture contenders, but its screenplay isn't the strongest aspect of the movie... and since someone can't make the final lineup, I had to put Zach Baylin's work for King Richard in #6. Then, I have Aaron Sorkin for Being the Ricardos - and you should be asking "why the hell is someone not predicting Sorkin when he's one the AMPAS favorite screenwriters?"... Well, there are some rumours about Being the Ricardos is going to be campaigned and placed in Best Adapted Screenplay and since the Best Original Screenplay race is a bloodbath this year, I believe it will either land a Best Adapted Screenplay nod instead OR not get enough votes due to category confusion. Then, Pedro Almodóvar has made another international masterpiece - Madres Paralelas is one of the best movies of the year by far, but the fact it wasn't selected as Spain's official submission for Best International Film might open the doors for Almodóvar to be recognized in this category since the movie will be seen as "not a submission". Sean Baker has already brought us amazing movies like Tangerine or The Florida Project, but his screenwriting skills have never been Oscar nominated... but Red Rocket (the comedy tale of a former porn actor trying to fix his life) will need a LOT of critics groups support in order to gain traction in such a overcrowded race (still, it would make for a worthy nominee), Finally, Wes Anderson and friends Roman Coppola and Hugo Guinness have written another charming and smart movie, but The French Dispatch is losing buzz and I can only see it making it in the below the line categories at the moment.

• BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Jane Campion has already won in the Best Original Screenplay field and things look good for her here since The Power of the Dog is one of the most acclaimed movies of the year and a major awards frontrunner across the board, including Best Picture. And Netflix will be campaigning TPOTD heavily, so... a true frontrunner! Then, another Netflix contender: Maggie Gyllenhaal's adaptation of Elena Ferrante's novel The Lost Daughter, which earned her the Best Screenplay prize at Venice Film Festival and a Gotham Award for Best Screenplay, elevating the movie as a Best Adapted Screenplay favorite even if it fails to pop-up anywhere else. Joel Coen has gone solo this year for The Tragedy of Macbeth and while his previous collaborations with his brother were true Oscar magnets, I believe the "Coen" name itself is the magnet and A24's The Tragedy of Macbeth will be able to land a nomination - the movie might not be the audiences' cup of tea, but critics have been raving it, so I'm counting on a solid critics awards groups response that will boost its Oscar buzz. Most people weren't expecting Tony Kushner to enter the race for the new movie adaptation of West Side Story, but the enthusiasm around the movie and the praise he got for adaptating some parts differently from previous takes on the tale of Tony and Maria have earned him a huge Oscar boost. All the Best Picture buzz around West Side Story sure doesn't hurt too, since the AMPAS has no problems about going for a less complex screenplay (which doesn't seem to be a case) when the buzz across the board is strong. The fifth spot goes to Passing an adaptation by Rebecca Hall and Nella Larsen - despite Passing's fading buzz, it is the kind of movie that might well get a boost when critics groups nominations start rolling and it will be the "critics push" kind of nomination alongside The Tragedy of Macbeth. Plus, Passing is Hall's directorial debut and it is a magnificient one that should earn its auteur some major glory (please!)... Netflix is backing the movie, but it doesn't seem like a top priority for the streaming giant, but I still believe they will campaign it enough.

I can see CODA getting the "screenplay is its lone nomination" place in the next Oscar nominations list - it happens every year! - since it got a lot of acclaim and it is such a lovely well-written movie and Apple TV+ big awards push. Plus, the movie earned Sian Heder major film festival honors, including the top prize at this year's Sundance Film Festival. Japan's International Film submission, Drive My Car is getting widely seen and loved, so I wouldn't be surprise if it manages to pull a screenplay nomination somehow... it feels like it is that kind of movie AND the AMPAS has already had an Asian cinema crush recently. Neo noir thrillers might be a very Golden Age Hollywood thing, but Guillermo Del Toro has Nightmare Alley this year and it looks like a big player, so I would be shocked if I hear it has screenplay potential in the next few days - but, for now, I am playing safe. Dune: Part One is a massive epic spectacle, but it doesn't feel like a screenplay-driven movie... still, when a movie goes all across the board it can get a screenplay nomination sometimes (1914, La La Land or A Star Is Born, for example). Last year, Florian Zeller adapted his own play The Father and he earned an Oscar for it (shared with Christopher Hampton) and I was hoping Stephen Karam would have the same fate for adapting the Tony winning play The Humans, but it didn't catch fire somehow... let's see how it plays during the awards season.