Academy Awards 2022 nominees predictions: 1st ROUND, December (Best Supporting Actress & Best Supporting Actor)

• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This year's Best Supporting Actress race features some of the very best performances of the year regardless of being lead or supporting, male or female: Ruth Negga (Passing), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ann Dowd (Mass) and Jodie Comer (The Last Duel) are some of the year's best acting turns (from what I've already watched). West Side Story, Belfast, The Tragedy of Macbeth and Nightmare Alley remain unseen by me (unfortunately), but there's no way to deny the universal acclaim of the performance, with Blanchett being (oddly) the least praised of the bunch. So, for #1, there's Ariana DeBose, the Broadway actress who took on the iconic Anita role in Steven Spielberg's West Side Story and she's collecting rave reviews from critics. She's not famous (yet), but the nature of the role plus the level of acclaim she has been getting make me believe she's the frontrunner right now. Plus, she's working the circuit and she has been promoting the movie and campaigning very well! Belfast is said to feature some of the most charming acting turns of the year and Caitriona Balfe is said to put her heart and soul in the game as Buddy's mom - the movie got enthusiastic reactions from both critics and film festival audiences and it has already collected a fair number of award wins during the film festival season and this early award season, so it is a clear favorite. And never underestimate a raved supporting performance in a Best Picture frontrunner! The same saying might be apllied to Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog - she's sublime and the movie is under some made Best Picture heat. If Stewart is "the princess of sadness" then Dunst is "the queen of suffering" thanks to a lifelong career full of dramatic characters with Rose being her big dramatic peak (only to be suprassed by her Justine in Melancholia). THE BEST performance of the year so far (alongside Cumberbatch) is Ruth Negga in Passing! She's a big screen magnet and she creates multiple layers in Clare: so beautiful, gracious and Hollywood-like on the surface, but completely lost and miserable inside! It's one of the year's most complex characters and it would be a tricky role in the hands of a less capable actress. The thing is Passing doesn't have the same Oscar heat as other Netflix films this year, but I hope critics prizes and some indie prizes mentions and wins might push a nomination for Negga. The #5 spot goes for King Richard's scene-stealer, Aunjanue Ellis, who is able to shine brighter than Will Smith. Ellis doesn't rely on movie star charisma or a self-centric tale, instead she just uses true acting talent and shines thanks to a performance that feels raw and honest. From all these 5 top contenders, I believe Ellis won't win the big precursor awards, but she has the role, the movie and the performance to pull an Oscar upset in the end!

Right under the line is Rita Moreno, who returns to West Side Story, but this time as Valentina in a re-adaptation of the shop owner character. Reviews claim she has a great Oscar clip (a singing moment) with "Somewhere" scene and, in case she gets nominated, she will be 90 years old by the time and she would become the oldest actress/actor to ever receive an Academy Award nomination (and for the remake of the same movie that won her the Oscar sixty years ago). A good performance with a good trivia can be Moreno's biggest play in the Oscar circuit! Then, there's the almost unknown Kathryn Hunter (I didn't know her) who is said to steal The Tragedy of Macbeth from the acting titans Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand. She plays the 3 witches and she has won the prestigious NYFCC Award for Best Supporting Actress for this performance. It doesn't seem the kind of role AMPAS members go for, but the movie is doing fairly well at the awards season... let's see if Oscar voters can think outside the box! Aunt Lydia... sorry... Ann Dowd is Mass' MVP, which means a lot since the movie features 4 killer acting performances! It's a very dramatic part in a very dramatic movie and she truly shines, but... Bleecker Street is bad at campaigning! She will need full support from critics in the hope of landing an Oscar nomination. Jodie Comer delivers a powerhouse performance in Ridley Scott's The Last Duel and while the movie was discredited as an Oscar contender due to poor box-office perforance, truth is the movie has been doing quite well in streaming! Comer might suffer from category placement issues, since she's borderline lead (thanks to a wonderful third act that allows her to fully shine) but she's the movie central figure... so, how is it gonna be? Finally, Cate Blanchett might be an acting goddess, but it seems the role of the femme fatale Lilith in Nightmare Alley doesn't flow that well on her veins. There's some divisive response regarding her performance and the movie in general, but AMPAS loves a big game and those who like her performance seem to be very passionate about it. Blanchett does stand a fair chance at a Best Supporting Actress nomination.

• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kodi Smit-McPhee was a prodigy child actor who proved his talent in Let Me In, The Road or Romulus, My Father, but he reaches new acting heights in The Power of the Dog. He's simply wonderful as the sensitive young man who doesn't look, sound or act masculine: from his look at things, to his body language, to his more emotional scenes, Kodi is able to match the work of more experienced actors like Cumberbatch or Dunst. He has already won the NYFCC and the WAFCA awards for Best Supporting Actor and considering how open the Best Supporting Actor feels and how strong The Power of the Dog's Oscar buzz is, I consider he's a very safe bet. Then, there are the two supporting men of Belfast: Ciarán Hinds and Jamie Dornan. Hinds is said to deliver a tender performance as Buddy's grandpa, with some good scenes, but what I think that really boosts his Oscar chances is the "career recognition" need for a veteran actor who shines on stage, TV and big screen. As for Dornan, he still struggles with the non-serious tag people put on him thanks to the (awful) Fifty Shades movies... and while he is not the best actor in the world, it seems that he's quite charming in this one as Buddy's Pa and he delivers a very fine performance. Considering Belfast's Best Picture buzz, early critics groups noms, his superstar look (that might call some attentions during the televised precursor awards) and some recent praised acting turns (The Fall TV series, Anthropoid or Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar), I believe an Oscar nomination can really happen for Dornan. Now, I must warn you that I don't feel secure about any of the next picks, because it seems like a no man's land in the Best Supporting Actor shortlist. I am considering Mike Faist, who shines as Riff in Spielberg's West Side Story...! Considering all the buzz around the musical's new adaptation, with tons of critical acclaim and a lot of people wanting to see it in theatres, I believe West Side Story can become a titanic Oscar player and Faist will be both a coattail Best Supporting Actor pick and a well-deserved (legit) choice acting-wise. It seems Faist embraces Riff as a tormented young man who knows nothing but violence and inner chaos - a complex take on a character that could be brought to life in a "too simple" way. Finally, J.K. Simmons, the Academy Award winning character actor, who plays William Frawley the stage entertainer and Lucille Ball's co-star in "I Love Lucy" in Aaron Sorkin's Being the Ricardos. Simmons is said to have some of the movie's best Sorkin lines and some people say he is the MVP. Considering how much AMPAS loves movies about showbizz and actors playing other actors, I'm predicting Simmons to be nominated.

There's a movie that has been getting some last-minute unexpected love and that is CODA. It is doing quite well with critics groups and Apple TV+ seems focused in the movie's Oscar campaign. And one of the best things about CODA is Troy Kotsur's performance. Just like previous Oscar nominee Paul Raci (The Sound of Metal), Kotsur is also deaf, but it doesn't take any of his performance's brilliant... in fact, it gives it a huge authenticity. Funny and sometimes moving, Kotsur has already won the Gotham Award for Outstanding Supporting Performance and he got nominated for a big couple of critics prizes for CODA... I believe he can rise in my predictions easily. Then, there's Jon Bernthal who delivers a charismatic performance in King Richard - let's be clear, he has no meaty "Oscar clip" but he delivers some very fine acting as a sympathetic (very relevant) character... and sometimes it's enough! Let's not forget Bernthal has already worked with almost everyone in Hollywood and he has become a well-known actor recently thanks to his work in The Wolf of Wall Street, Fury, The Accountant, Ford vs. Ferrari, Daredevil TV series and The Punisher TV series... so I believe he's in a nice stage of his career in order to get a first Oscar nod. I don't like his performance, but it would be foolish not to have Jared Leto under consideration for his performance as Paolo Gucci in House of Gucci. I think the performance is bad, but some people (and some critics) really liked his uncontrolled acting work in this one. Never underestimate a showy performance, specially when the actor is unrecognizable under an impressive makeup and hair work! Plus, audiences are loving House of Gucci as box-office numbers tell us! The AMPAS is not kind to male child actors, but the kind of glowing reviews Woody Norman as been getting for his breakthrough performance in Mike Mills' C'mon c'mon are impossible to ignore. Plus, it seems he holds his own quite well alongside Joaquin Phoenix, which might impress viewers. Even if he misses critics groups mentions for Best Supporting Actor, I can see a scenario where he pops-up in Breakthrough Performance shortlists and then pulls a SAG nomination and then... maybe... an Oscar nom if A24 campaigns C'mon c'mon! The last spot goes for Jesse Plemmons, who is the least impressive of the Cumberbatch-Dunst-Kodi-Plemmons quartet of The Power of the Dog. He's a good actor, but the role isn't as awards-friendly as his co-stars'. Still, he might well coattail!