The Adventures of Tintin: the Secret of the Unicorn
Everybody loves Tintin! Everybody will love this movie... or hate it! In fact adapting a Tintin adventure to the big screen can be really risky due to the fact of taking a legendary book to the theatres. This one may be the animated feature of the year, so it would be a crime snub him. The music score seems amazing, the cast is delicious and it used performance capture technology. Steven Spielberg's name and the books make this promising, but the trailer makes it looking epic: I think the AMPAS will give The Adventures of Tintin: the Secret of the Unicorn a shot at Best Picture and most likely an Oscar at Best Animated Feature...
Coriolanus
While most predictions don't include Coriolanus as one of the main contenders for a Best Picture nomination, the fact is that it is doing really well in the film festivals circuit and the critics like this movie. Plus, it stars a great cast composed by Ralph Fiennes, Gerard Butler, Brian Cox, Vanessa Redgrave and Jessica Chastain, which increases its Oscar chances. This adaptation of a Shakespeare's play of the same name could be a risky project, with a bad critical reception, but Fiennes' directorial debut proved to be something different and a smart adaption of the action of the play (in Rome) to a modern-days place known as "Rome". I think the AMPAS will have a look at Coriolanus...
The Descendants
Well, we have Sideways' director, George Clooney, a family in rocks and a dramatic tone... It's so Oscar looking! The trailer shows something that looks extremely good and Alexander Payne's work is full of high-quality. The Academy loves a good character study and some funny scenes between some crying scenes, so The Descendants have the potential to be this year's The Kids Are All Right and getting some Oscar nods, like the Best Picture one. But it has a long way until Oscar glory, once this year the Oscar race seems really competitive and the Best Picture one is no exception!
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
After The Social Network (the Facebook movie), David Fincher brings to the audience his adaptation of the first novel of the Millenium trilogy. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo is one of the most antecipated movies of the year, by far, and it has all the media attentions due to the fact of being an adaptation of a best-selling book, due to the leading female casting and for being a David Fincher movie. The teaser trailer is outstanding, the poster is remarkable and it seems to have a cinematic style a bit similar to Se7en (one of Fincher's gems). This one promises to be a hit - a guaranteed commercial sucess and (maybe) critically raved one - and the AMPAS likes to make the audiences happy, so the Academy would have absolutely no problems in putting the movie between the 10 nominees for the Oscar of Best Picture if it wasn't about a big couple of controversial subjects that make some of the most conservative Academy members "unhappy".
Hugo Cabret
While picking Hugo Cabret as a Best Picture nominee may seem a strange choice due to the fact of being an adaptation of a children's book, we can't deny the fact that a Martin Scorcese's movie is a Martin Scorcese's movie and the man is a legend. "Childish" movies like Where the Wild Things Are were snubed in the past in spite of their quality, but Hugo Cabret may have a different tone for being a period piece and for looking "epic". The bright cast may also help the movie getting a nomination, specially with respectful names like Asa Butterfield, Chloë Moretz, Jude Law, Ben Kingsley, Sasha Baron Cohen, Emily Mortimer or Christopher Lee. But in spite of having a lot good things, Hugo Cabret may be snubed by the AMPAS who may prefer to see a Summer blockbuster in its place (like Super 8 or Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II) or something more dramatic, more adult.
J. Edgar
If there's something AMPAS really love is gay characters and movies about them. If there's something AMPAS really love is biopics, good biopics (A Beautiful Mind, Ray, Capote, The Queen, The Aviator, Frost/Nixon or Milk). In fact, there are a lot of factors that may benefit J. Edgar in the Oscar race for a Best Picture spot beyond being a Clint Eastwood movie and having a wonderful cast composed by names like Armie Hammer, Naomi Watts, Judi Dench, Josh Lucas and Leonardo DiCaprio (who portrays Hoover). If in my last Best Picture nominees predictions J. Edgar could not be available for this year's Oscar race due to a possible 2012 release, it seems that it is no longer a problem once the movie got a December release. J. Edgar may get a Best Picture nod easily if it has the critical praise that's necessary...
Like Crazy
Winning the top prize of Sundance Film Festival is the same thing of having the Academy's attention and Like Crazy won it, just like Winter's Bone did last year. The movie is a love story that was described as a college version of Blue Valentine and only God knows how underrated Blue Valentine was last year as a film itself. The Academy loves a good love story, specially when the leads' performances are critically praised, and loves a good indie production, specially since the number of nominees was expanded to 10 (do you remember The Hurt Locker, Precious, The Kids Are All Right, Winter's Bone or Black Swan?). Maybe I'm crazy for predicting such a tiny movie to figure out between big cinematic productions, but I really think that the AMPAS will look to Sundance Film Festival again and recognize the quality of the independent cinema. Maybe, Like Crazy will be snubed and a blockbuster will be chosen as a Best Picture nominee, but someone (even a small blogger) must start giving Oscar buzz to this movie in order to increase its chances, right? Independent cinema deserves it!
The Tree of Life
It won the Palme D'Or in this year's Cannes Film Festival. It have been collecting raves. It is a true art house motion picture, but it isn't THAT-WELL-SUCCEED in the box office. In spite of being one of the most antecipated movies of this year and in spite of not being disapointing, The Tree of Life may be too abstract for some people and too Christian for others, which may not help in the Oscar race. But, this seen as a poem, as one of the most beautiful movies that were made in the past 10 years and Terrence Malick has a great reputation in spite of not releasing a movie each year. The Tree of Life has chances in the Oscar race, but its lack of commercial success may close some of the many doors the critical reception and the Cannes prize opened. But... sometimes we need something to make us think about ourselves and The Tree of Life has this effect, making this movie an unforgetable cinematic experience.
War Horse
The play have been collecting raves in the theatre world both in London and in Broadway, but while a play is really sucessful on stage (it just won the Tony Award of Best Play!), that doesn't mean that it will be good on the big screen, but... hey! It's a Steven Spielberg movie! The story of a remarkable friendship between a horse named Joey and a young man called Albert during World War I may catch the Academy's heart. In fact, the Academy usually uses the heart in the hour of choosing its favorites and War Horse seems the kind of compelling movie that will get the audience's love beyond the fact that this is the kind of picture for which Spielberg receive awards. War Horse has almost a place between the Best Picture nominees guaranteed in spite of not being released yet (this is one of the movies that have a December release in order to have awards traction!). Plus, it wouldn't be funny to have two Steven Spielberg directed movies between the Best Picture nominees this year?
We Bought a Zoo
After the critical flop of Elizabethtown, Cameron Crowe, the director and screenwriter of Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous, brings a big screen adaptation of Benjamin Mee's memoir - We Bought a Zoo - the story of a father who moves with his family and buys a zoo while his wife dies with cancer. A lot of predictions don't include this movie in their list and it may due to the fact that a movie with a plot like this may be plenty of clichés, but we can't forget that Cameron Crowe can do amazing things and use the heart of the story in outstanding ways. Most than the family tragedy, the comedy tone it promises to have and the previous body of work of its director, We Bought a Zoo may call the AMPAS attentions mostly because of its amazing cast composed by Matt Damon, Scarlett Johansson, Thomas Hadden Church, Patrick Fugit, Elle Fanning and other less known actors. Someone said We Bought a Zoo would be more like Crowe's first works (the same style of Say Anything, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous) and I hope it's true: this way it will be a Best Picture nominee movie easily or maybe I'm putting too much hopes in We Bought a Zoo.
in consideration: A Dangerous Method; The Ides of March; Midnight in Paris; On the Road; Super 8;
- This predictions don't include the new Academy's changes in the rules for Best Picture nominations.
- The 3rd round of Academy Awards 2012 Best Picture nominees predictions will be according the new rules of the Academy and you will be able to check that predictions here: http://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/2011/08/academy-awards-2012-best-picture.html
- You can check the new Academy's rules here: http://theenvelope.latimes.com/la-et-academy-changes-20110616,0,7780109.story
(alterations in this post were made Friday, 17th June 2011)
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