1.
War Horse
Steven Spielberg is back with the adaptation of the Tony Award winning play of Best Play that's an adaptation of Michael Morpurgo's novel of the same name. War Horse's plot centers on the story of a remarkable friendship between a horse named Joey and a young man called Albert during World War I and the journey of the Joey in order to escape from the war and go back home, which may be heartbreaking enough for being the nº 1 choice of the AMPAS voters. The movie looks a future classic, looks epic, looks like a Steven Spielberg masterpiece and looks like the kind of movie that lots of people will see in the Christmas holidays, wich may turn War Horse a commercial success. Plus, the movie seems great in technical and artistic categories: a great cinematography, a beautiful original score by the legendary John Williams and pretty scenarios and costumes, being the kind of ensemble acting motion picture, having children in this one, being an adaptation of the same material of a Broadway hit, being directed by Steven Spielberg and being a kind of E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial but in a World War I version - War Horse is in the lead of the Oscar race right now, in spite of being only released in December...
2.
The Ides of March
Well, against my expectations, The Ides of March seems a real political thriller. I was afraid it would be a kind of Frost/Nixon, but the trailer showed something different, something exciting that I can see Oscar voters picking as their favorite movie of the year. Without saying too much, the plot centers on a staffer for a newbie presidential candidate that gets a crash course on dirty politics, which sound very meaty and something a big couple of people would pay for seeing. The movie is part of the official selections of Venice Film Festival (screening at the Opening Night, which is a great honour, specially if you didn't forget Black Swan or Atonement) and of Toronto International Film Festival. Plus, it has a shinning cast composed by Ryan Gosling, George Clooney, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Paul Giamatti, Marisa Tomei, Jeffrey Wright and Evan Rachel Wood, it's directed by George Clooney who also wrote the screenplay alongside Grant Heslov, based on the sucessful play Farragut North. With such a great amont of cinematic pedigree and Clooney's name all over the credits, The Ides of March promises to be remarkable and screams OSCAR!
3.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Stephen Daldry brings to us the adaptation of a sucessful novel about a boy who searches New York for the lock that matches a mysterious key left by his father when he was killed in the September 11 attacks, which seems really meaty in the way that the world and, specially USA, will never forget September 11 and the novel is a sucessful one. Daldry has three movies (not short-movies) in his body of work, and two of them were nominated for the Academy Award of Best Picture (2002's The Hours and 2008's The Reader) and it is produced by Scott Rudin, which puts Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close in a comfortable situation about its chances in the Best Picture Oscar race. Another good factor for ELIC is the cast: Tom Hanks (an AMPAS darling) and Sandra Bullock (an actress who seems to be loved by almost everybody in Hollywood) are the leading stars. It's a lot of buzz around a movie who hasn't released official images, a trailer or a poster, that can be turned easily into a Best Picture nomination if the movie is critically well-received!
4.
A Dangerous Method
With a cast composed by Michael Fassbender, Keira Knightley, Viggo Mortense and Vincent Cassel, David Cronenberg as the director, a controversial theme (psychoanalysis) and real-life character like Carl Jung and Sigmund Freud, A Dangerous Method is a must-under-Oscar-radar movie. The trailer shows a promise of a terrific period piece with great performances from the leading cast and an interesting love story between Jung and one of his patients, Sabrina. With such an interesting body of work from Cronenberg, who already directed movies like The Fly, A History of Violence and Eastern Promises, it's not easy not expecting anything else less than very good from A Dangerous Method. The buzz is huge and a sex related topic of the movie may call some attentions and as well as the love story between the two leads, which helps this movie in becoming the number 1 choice of at least 5% of the Academy voters. There's no guarantee of a place between the Best Picture (there are no guarantees in the Oscar race in August, specially with most contenders to be released in the September-December season), but A Dangerous Method has a lot of factors that benefit it in the race for the Oscar of Best Picture and one of them is Cronenberg's genius, who can be also its biggest disadvantage!
5.
The Tree of Life
Winner of the so wanted Palme D'Or of Cannes Film Festival, The Tree of Life is seen by the majority of cinema experts as a cinematic masterpiece, one of the best art-house movies of the last years, the best film of the year so far and a phylosofical picture about the meaning of being alive. It may seem too "alternative" cinema, but the fact is that the director is the already legendary Terrence Malick, who has a fanatic fanbase and a small body of work (5 movies since 1973), make each movie he releases a cinematic event. With a lot of raves, a not-bad-at-all-box-office-performance-for-a-limited-released and a cast leaded by Brad Pitt, Sean Penn and Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life has chances in the Best Picture Oscar race. For most people, the feelings about the movie are quite ambiguous (quite beautiful to watch, but boring at the same time; quite beautiful subject, but you didn't understand the movie;), which may be an disadvantage, but the fact is that this is a nearly-perfect motion picture for those art-house lovers and people who like to go home without stop thinking about the movie they watched. Watching The Tree of Life is a remarkable experience and this is the reason why it will be nominated - it will always be fresh in the voter's minds and will score 5% of the votes, almost for sure.
6.
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
One of the most antecipated movies of the year, David Fincher's adaptation of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo has a lot to proof, specially when last year's Swedish movies were so well-received by both critics and audiences. The trailer shows a very stylish movie, which is something that lacked in the Swedish version in my opinion - a darker, more mysterious tone, something sexier and haunting at the same time. Both audiences and AMPAS love Fincher and The Social Network Oscar loss to The King's Speech was a bit controversial, so The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo may be a great excuse to be apologized by the Academy. But it isn't all about cinematic politics, it's also about the impact of the movie: a dark, haunting and "feel-bad" movie in the Christmas season will cause impact for sure, specially in a time where there are a lot of animated movies, comedies or family movies. Plus, if this version of the Swedish novel of the same name gets raves and a big commercial success, an Oscar nod is almost guaranteed: it may be a controversial movie, with controversial scenes, but the books of the Millenium trilogy are very popular, best-selling novels, and nominating The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo may not be hard for those members who like to be shocked by a pretty adult movie. It is also a populistic choice, with all the media attention the movie got since the casting process and a lot of the book fans.
7.
We Bought a Zoo
Due to the flops of Vanilla Sky and Elizabethtown and to the sucess of Singles, Say Anything, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous, there are a lot of different expectations about the next Cameron Crowe movie - We Bought a Zoo, an adaptation of Benjamin Mee's memoir of the same name about a family that, after a tragedy, buys a zoo and start a new life by taking care of all the animals. The source material is a best-selling book and the fact of being a true story give a certain pedigree to the movie and, against all the people who say it can easily suck due to the possible existence of dramatic clichés, the great cast composed by names like Matt Damon, Thomas Haden Church, Scarlett Johansson, Patrick Fugit and Elle Fanning and Cameron Crowe is directing it may be seen has factors against the possibility of being a lame cinematic flop. It has a Christmas release, it is a dramedy, it has a life lesson in it and, according to some comments, it will be in a style similar to Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous', which are big advantages for the Best Picture Oscar race. For music lovers, the score is by Jónsi from Sigúr Rós (a great score is something normal in a Crowe's movie). We Bought a Zoo has strong factors that may give it more than 5% of the Oscar voters and a seat in the Best Picture Oscar nominees room.
8.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
The most lucrative film series of all the time, with more than 7 billion dollars in worldwide receipts ended with an outstanding piece of cinematic work. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II broke box-office records and was raved, holding an impressive 96% at Rotten Tomatoes and a 93 from Broadcast Film Critics Association, being the most critically acclaimed and fast-grossing movie of the Harry Potter franchise, which increases its Oscar chances in getting a Best Picture nomination. In fact, no Harry Potter movie was nominated for the Academy Award of Best Picture, with all the 7 movies scoring a total of 9 nominations in artistic and technical categories, but Deathly Hallows: Part II it's different: it's the end of the saga, which brings a nostalgic feeling. It won't be easy to ignore Harry Potter this year when the time to vote comes: AMPAS voters will feel tempted to wanting to recognize all the franchise by nominating the last one, which is the best movie of this Summer, so far and by far! With the previous Best Picture nomination rules, I would say that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II would have a place between the 10 nominees guaranteed by having the Summer blockbuster place, but with the new rules things change... BUT I believe this one will get at least 5% of the votes from the AMPAS members: some voters will choose HP by thinking it may not have enough votes to be nominated, because the other voters like other kind of movies... It's the last and best Harry Potter movie, how can't we not love it? The movie is magic!
9.
Midnight In Paris
Woody Allen is back to his classic movie style in Midnight In Paris and the reactions to the movie have been great, with Midnight being raved by critics and becoming the highest grossing Woody Allen movie of all time! In fact, it's all about Woody Allen's comeback... I mean, the movie seems luminous, funny and feel-good, but it is only seen as an Oscar contender due to Woody factor. The cast is great (Owen Wilson, Rachel McAdams, Marion Cotillard, Kathy Bates, Adrien Brody, Tom Hiddleston, Alison Pill, Michael Sheen, Léa Seydoux and Carla Bruni), the dialogue is great and Paris is great, looks great and has a lot of charm - this is why Midnight In Paris is so loved by everbody! Oscar voters may want to see one of the Old School's teacher's work being recognized this year after several year without being close of the Best Picture category (with the exception of Match Point and Vicky Cristina Barcelona), so I believe Midnight In Paris will be the favorite movie of the year for a big couple of AMPAS members, mostly, Old School people, cinema almost legends who see this one as a hope and one of the most charming works from a friend.
10.
J. Edgar
The Academy loves a good biopic (A Beautiful Mind, Ray, The Aviator, The Queen or Milk) and this year Clint Eastwood brings a movie about the life of FBI's J. Edgar Hoover, starring big names such as Leonardo DiCaprio, Judi Dench, Naomi Watts, Armie Hammer or Josh Lucas. It has been a while since a Eastwood's directed movie was nominated in the Best Picture category (2006's Letters From Iwo Jima) and his latest movies didn't seduce the Academy that much, but there's some hope in J. Edgar. Last time Eastwood went rectro, Changeling was made and it was a controversial piece of cinema that received some recognition from the AMPAS in a couple of categories, so it isn't strange that people expect J. Edgar as an improvement and something more Oscar-friendly. In fact, the buzz around the movie is huge, specially around DiCaprio's performance, but it wasn't even released and I'm afraid that the movie itself may be a bit less than most people are expecting. Of course Hollywood does a some great biopics once in a while, but I'm afraid that the Academy may be a bit tired of biopics in the way that they may not be THE favorite movie of enough Academy members. Still, J. Edgar can keep its hopes in the Oscar of Best Picture nod dream, because... HEY! It's a Clint Eastwood movie about a controversial man with a controversial life (Hoover's homossexuality is an advantage, since the Academy loves movies about this subject - Brokeback Mountain and Milk), so it is possible, definetly!
UNDER SERIOUS CONSIDERATION (may be in the 1O possible in the future):
11.
The Descendants
Alexander Payne directed Sideways and that's the main reason why The Descendants is seen as a Best Picture contender: in spite of being a character study, wich is more baity in acting categories, Payne never presents less than very good work and having George Clooney in the leading role helps since the day the Academy fell in love for him! The movie is an adaptation of a novel about a family dynamics, the relationships between its members and the situations that are lived when a father must take care of his two daughters and learning how to be a good father. It is a serious contender in the "heartbreaking" category, being able to take the spots that I gave to Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and We Bought a Zoo, but I felt The Descendants more a About Schmidt than a Sideways, because of the focus on the main character. While I don't deny how good the movie trailer looks and the big potential of this movie, I think it won't be the favorite of enough Oscar voters... But it's just my opinion in August, it may change in September or I can be simply wrong, so let's wait until 23rd November and see what will be said in the movie's release.
12.
Like Crazy
Like Crazy
The winner of the Grand Jury Prize for Best Picture at the 2011 Sundance Film Festival, Like Crazy illustrates how first real love is as thrilling and blissful as it is devastating by telling us the story of a British college girl and an American student who fall in love but then they are separeted and live their love separated by the Atlantic ocean. The trailer is sweet, sad and beautiful and it seems the kind of picture who stays forever in the audiences' minds, which may be a good advantage, but the sadness of the movie (the most beautiful thing you can see in the trailer) may lead some people to an almost depressive state... We can't ignore Like Crazy, because it was a huge hit at Sundance and it seems a beautiful piece of cinema. I bet it will be the favorite movie of the indie members of the Academy, but the question is "How many indie people are part of the Academy?". Some independent productions got nominated for the Academy Award of Best Picture (like Winter's Bone and Precious that were previous Sundance winners) so Like Crazy, a mix of (500) Days of Summer and Blue Valentine, may have a chance as THE indie movie of the year.
13.
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
The trailer shows what can be an outstanding animated feature and what will be the commercial hit of the Christmas season, for sure, but Steven Spielberg's first directed animated feature can't be ignored as a potential Best Picture Oscar nominee. While it is harder for an animated feature to get a spot in the Best Picture nominees list due to the new Best Picture nomination rules, Tintin is a serious contender: a lovely and famous comic-book heroe, a Spielberg directed movie, a great production, an outstanding trailer... I don't believe it will the favorite movie of the whole year of 5% of the Oscar voters, because adults usually don't take an animated feature as their favorite, but Tintin may impress and voters may want to see an animated feature between the nominees. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn's Best Picture chances decreased with the new nomination rules, but it isn't impossible yet, it's just improbable.
14.
Young Adult
Young Adult
Last time Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody teamed together the result was the outstanding and fresh Juno and while there's no much to say about Young Adult, I can't ignore Reitman's great body of work in which we can also see Thank You For Smoking and Up In the Air and so it's Cody's talent for screenplay writing (she won the Academy Award of Best Original Screenplay for Juno). Charlize Theron and Patrick Wilson lead the cast, which is also a positive note, by portraying two past lovers who took different lives and that find each other again after Theron's character divorce. I'm so curious to see how is Young Adult, but there's no big clue for now, only a big buzz around the movie that impossible to ignore due to all the pedigree we can find involved in this dramatic-tone project.
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