1.
Leonardo DiCaprio for J. Edgar
Leonardo DiCaprio's performance as J. Edgar Hoover, the controversial FBI director who, according to some reports, was homossexual and cross-dresser, is getting a lot of buzz in the Oscar predicting foruns. A couple of people are talking about a monologue DiCaprio has in the movie that, according to some reports, it's a scene with superb acting from the Titanic star. In fact, DiCaprio is overdue for a win after three Oscar nominations (Best Supporting Actor for 1993's What's Eating Gilbert Grape and Best Actor for 2004's The Aviator and for 2006's Blood Diamond) and a big couple of outstanding performances in the last years that got no AMPAS recognition (The Departed, Revolutionary Road or Inception), so the existence of a lot of buzz around his portray of J. Edgar in a Clint Eastwood movie isn't a sin. He is one of the most respectable movie stars working today, he's a very bankable actor, he has an outstanding body of work (Titanic, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed and Inception were all nominated for the Oscar of Best Picture, with Titanic and The Departed taking it home) and he's an aundience's darling! Seeing DiCaprio being nominated in the Best Actor category for J. Edgar seems almost a certainty at the moment (a gay politics' real-life character seems perfect for the Academy), but maybe it's too early to talk about a possible winning.
2.
George Clooney for The Descendants
George Clooney is one of the most popular faces in Hollywood, a gentleman loved by women and a man that seems a coll guy for men, and he's back to meaty roles this year with Alexander Payne's The Descendants and The Ides of March, but it seems that The Descendants is Clooney's best chance due to the quality of the part: a man that must take care of his two daughters and learning how to be a good father. Character studies like what The Descendants seems to look like are usually great acting showcases that benefit the lead actors in the awards season and in the Oscar race and the fact is that I don't remember seeing Clooney as a sad father... That's one of the main reasons why Clooney is so likely for an Oscar nom: he's doing something a bit different from that charming and/or serious single man. With three acting nominations and one win and his status in Hollywood, I think Clooney will get this nod easily if he gets enough critical praise, because it seems that the AMPAS never snub its favorite sons like George!
3.
Ryan Gosling for The Ides of March
One of the most charismatic actor working today in Hollywood (my opinion), Gosling is having a great 2011 with the success of Nicolas Winding Refn's Drive and the critically well-received romantic comedy Crazy, Stupid, Love and it seems that The Ides of March will be the most shinning light in his body of work this year. The movie trailer shows something that seems great and Gosling's part seems juicy enough for being considered an Oscar-friendly role and since Gosling suffered one of the ugliest Oscar snubs I've ever seen last year for his superb performance in Blue Valentine, I think this year he must be a nod waiting for him. In fact, Gosling is a very consistent actor, delivering performance of an high-acting level, which gives him a very good reputation in the cinema industry, but his work may be his biggest advantage as it is his biggest disadvantage: great performances are normal from Gosling, which may be seen as "just one more great performance" or a "we must nominate him for being always so good"! Playing an idealistic staffer for a newbie presidential candidate who gets a crash course on dirty politics during his stint on the campaign trail, seems something challenging and since he's one of the best, has an almost immaculated career and was already snubed a couple of times by the Oscar voters, I bet he will get recognized by the Academy this year.
4.
Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
He's an inspiration for a lot of respectful actor working today, but the truth is that Gary Oldman never got an Academy Award nomination in spite of his amazing performance all over his great career, so it seems fair to consider him as an Oscar contender in this year's Best Leading Actor Oscar race for his performance in the upcoming adaptation of John Le Carré's novel Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy of the same name. The movie trailer shows Oldman in which seems a very charismatic performance, with a part that seems really juicy and that ressemble some great character of the Hollywood past, which may be great for Oldman. He's very talented and has a body of work that put a big couple of Academy nominated actor green with envy, surely, but he needs an Oscar nomination - it just looks bad for the AMPAS that such an almost-legendary actor wasn't recognized yet (it's a crime, actually!). So, seeing Gary Oldman nominated this year in the Best Leading Actor category seems very likely due to all the buzz he's getting, and to be completely honest, I will be happy if it happens.
5.
Michael Fassbender for A Dangerous Method
One of the rising stars of today, Michael Fassbender have been showing great performances in every movie he's in, which makes people consider him one of the biggest hopes of the cinema industry. Known for a brilliant performance in Steve McQuenn's Hunger, for his appearances in 300, Inglorious Basterds and his work in Jane Eyre and X-Men: First Class, Fassbender's career may get the biggest honour this year by scoring an Academy Award nomination for A Dangerous Method. Fassbender plays Carl Jung in a movie about psychoanalysis that's an adaptation of the play The Talking Cure. The movie's main focus is the love story between Jung and one of his patients, Sabrina, which benefits Fassbender's chances. As the talented actor he is, Fassebender can easily deliver an outstanding portray of Jung, which, combined with a talented cast and a smart director like David Cronenberg may put him in one of the 5 leading places of the Best Leading Actor Oscar race. But, there are and were a lot of great actors that, in spite of their amazing performances and rising career must wait a couple of years for being recognized by the AMPAS and the same may happen to Fassbender, but all the buzz around the movie and his performance may change what's normal... but we can't also forget he may compete against himself for Shame, specially if he delivers a performance as strong as the one we sae from him in the first Steve McQueen film Hunger.
UNDER SERIOUS CONSIDERATION:
6.
Jean DuJardin for The Artist
During Cannes Film Festival, The Artist emerged as a serious contender for the Oscar race in a big couple of categories and one of them was in the Best Leading Actor one, specially due to the Cannes Film Festival Award of Best Actor that was given to Jean DuJardin for his portray of a silent movie star that sees his career falling down. DuJardin was raved by critics that also said the prize he received was completely fair. The movie is a black&white silent movie (like one of first pieces of cinema) and it's a French one, but it seems that the language no problem since there's no speaking in The Artist, which may be an advantage to DuJardin - his performance is great because of what people see him doing and not because what he says. Maybe the most interesting contender in this year's Oscar race that can get the nod since the AMPAS has a long affair with French cinema, but this year there's such a fearless competition in this category and DuJardin is no worldwide known face as much of the his competition! But there's hope for a silent movie star!
7.
Matt Damon for We Bought a Zoo
Damon has already proved he can act and he's a major movie star today. In We Bought a Zoo, Matt Damon portrays Benjamin Mee, who lost his wife who died with cancer and then decided to buy a zoo with his family and start a new life. The AMPAS love this kind of character: people who are trying to start their lives again after a tragedy and the role of a widow man with motherless kids seems really meaty. Cameron Crowe gave an Oscar nomination to Tom Cruise by directing him in Jerry Maguire and Damon (who received acting nods for Good Will Hunting and Invictus) may be the next Crowe's movies' leading man to get that honour. The movie tone will be a mix of a comedy and drama and it promises to be heartbreaking and if Damon gives a performance that's able to bound with the audience and make the audience wanting to take care of his character, Damon may get the Best Leading Actor nod with no big problem. The problem here is the possibility of a heartbreaking movie sound a bit lame, but I trust Cameron Crowe in spite of Elizabethtown (it was just one movie) and I believe the director will find the balance and make Damon delivering an outstanding performance - it's just hoping that the AMPAS voters like his Benjamin Mee and We Bought a Zoo itself!
8.
Joseph Gordon-Levitt for 50/50
Playing a man who suffers from cancer and that must learn how to live with the disease is a really juicy and maybe really dramatic part and since the day Joseph Gordon-Levitt born with a lot of talent in his blood, this can be a part that may give him an Oscar nomination. While some people have a big couple of doubts about the movie's quality, I believe this one will be very "character-driven" and once Gordon-Levitt is extremely charismatic and captivating on screen, 50/50 will do good between the critics and audiences and the leading actor will get some attention in the awards season. I would love to see Gordon-Levitt nominated and he's such a versatile performer, so 50/50 emerges as a hope to see this energic actor getting the recognizement he deserves. He shares the screen with a great cast composed by Anna Kendrick, Seth Rogen, Bryce Dallas Howard and Angelica Huston (it's always inspiring starring alongside good actors) and Jonathan Levine (The Wackness) can direct a movie, so he must be taken under serious consideration as a contender. The movie is a comedy-drama and sometimes the AMPAS likes to see a not-so-dramatic performance nominated, but the main Joseph's problem is that they usually go for heavy-drama (and some dramatic moments may not be enough)!
9. (tied with Michael Shannon)
Woody Harrelson for Rampart
After the critical sucess of The Messenger, Woody Harrelson and Oren Moverman reunite again for Rampart, a cop drama about the Rampart scandal in which a police struggles to take care of his family and fight for his own survival. The role of the hero of the movie is very meaty and Woody Harrelson can be very versatile, so I think it's not wrong to have Harrelson under consideration in this Oscar race in the Best Leading Actor category, since he has great dramatic chops. The movie is part of Toronto International Film Festival Official Selection, but it stills searching for a distributor, which may turn things harder for Harrelson's Academy's recognition since there's the possibility of Rampart not being released in 2011, but I believe that Toronto has a distributor who will want to take this movie and put it in theatres. Harrelson is very charismatic and has recent Oscar love, so there's no way to ignore him and I believe the AMPAS may want to nominate him again, specially if he receives raves for Rampart!
9. (tied with Woody Harrelson)
Michael Shannon for Take Shelter
While Mr. Shannon is no superstar, he is a great actor and he already got a surprising/unexpected Oscar nomination in the Best Supporting Actor category for his work in Sam Mendes' Revolutionary Road, so there's something wrong about not having him under consideration for his performance in Take Shelter, where he plays a young father and husband who has apocalyptic visions and tries to save his family from what he thinks that may be a big comming storm, becoming paranoic. Take Shelter was released in Sundance Film Festival and it got raves and, then, it was part of Cannes Film Festival and it was the winner of Critics Week Grand Prize and Shannon's performance received universal raves, being described as a "powerhouse" one. So, Shannon may be the indie representative in the Best Actor category of the Oscar nominees list, but his competition is composed by a lot of well-known faces that have the popularity and worldwide recognition as factors on their side. Shannon needs a solid awards season and a good campaign in order to get the Oscar nomination this year.
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