1.
Viola Davis for The Help
Point nº1: Everybody love Viola, that's a fact! Point nº2: The Help seems to be a good acting showcase for all the ensemble cast, that's relative! Point nº3: Viola's character is the juiciest of the book, that's what the novel's readers say! Point nº4: Viola Davis is very talented and she can get an Oscar nomination for her performance in The Help, that's possible! After some time thinking that Davis was getting Oscar buzz for no reason, I realized how good she was in Doubt and how it translated a huge and subtle talent that made me care about her as the broken-hearted mother of Doubt. In fact, Davis as the advantage of being a kind of "sweet" on screen, in the way that's hard not falling in love for her aura and portraying a (black) maid in The Help, a movie that tells us how black maids were treated some years ago by their bosses. A good part in an ensemble cast isn't an Oscar guarantee since the other cast members are extremely talented... Just to name a few names, Emma Stone, Allison Janney, Octavia Spencer, Bryce Dallas Howard or Jessica Chastain are in this movie too, so Davis must be as magnetic as she was in Doubt and I'm sure she will overshadow Spencer (or maybe not since they seem very different characters)! Have you ever seen The Help's movie clips? Viola seems outstanding in it! Plus, The Help seems a kind of a lighter The Color Purple and the Academy loves a good comedy once in a while, so I can see things happening for Viola if she won't campaign as lead actress (she may have no chances to win with Streep, Close and Knightley in her way)... Oscar buzz for her! Awards for her! Oscar nod for her (please!)...
2.
Vanessa Redgrave for Coriolanus
After Berlin Film Festival, there was announced Redgrave's comeback to Oscar race after Howard's End - too much time away (almost 20 years is a lot of time)... The movie adaptation of Williams Shakespeare's play Coriolanus is getting good critical reception since its Berlin release but Vanessa Redgrave is getting huge raves, with some of them saying that William Shakespeare wrote the character of Volumnia specially for her. As a proud, politically-minded mother of the titular Roman general Coriolanus, Vanessa Redgrave gives one of “those” performances, a masterclass in classical acting that conjures spontaneous emotions with a lot of immaculated acting technique (it's a Shakespearean character with Shakespearean dialogues) and according to reviews, her final monologue is titanic and mesmerizing. It's good material in the hands of an exception actress and the result is Oscar-worthy according to some folks in the foruns who already predict a win for her (maybe it's too much, specially when the movie hadn't its USA release). I can see AMPAS voters voting in one of their favorite daughters, I can see Vanessa Redgrave getting an Oscar nod after a great awards season... I predict a solid Best Supporting Actress Academy Award nomination for Coriolanus for her, right now!
3.
Kate Winslet for Carnage
Hope Davis got a Tony Award nomination for her portray of the same character Miss Winslet plays in Roman Polanski's Carnage. In the stage version, all the four actors were considered leading ones, but if we talk about Oscar, having two leading actresses and two leading actors don't work in the awards season field, so I can see Winslet going supporting due to the fact that her character and Waltz's character (husband and wife) are the visitors of Foster's and Reilly's. Winslet's part isn't the meatiest one of the play (let's having the play as a reference since there are no big details about the movie), she's a wealthy woman who's a wealth manager (her husband's wealth) and loves shoes and makeup. It's a materialistic character, a superficial person, but it's not an empty one and Winslet has the amazing ability of giving deepness to her characters, a deep sould. It's a four actors motion picture, so I'm sure they will shine in the running time, but Winslet is Winslet, she has something that makes her one of the best actresses working today and she's an AMPAS darling - she's Kate Winslet, the star of Titanic, The Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind and others!... I can see an Oscar nomination for her and other awards nods as well!
4.
Sandra Bullock for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
To be completely honest, I'm one of those people who don't like Sandra Bullock at all and who think that her win for The Blind Side was unfair, specially when Streep is asking for a third Oscar win a long time ago, but let's be honest: she seems to be a lovely and funny person and, in spite of not being a huge acting talent, she can make the audiences wanting to take care of her character. A popular actress, recent Academy Award winner and she's working with Stephen Daldry in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close movie adaptation: big advantages! Stephen Daldry is an expert in giving Oscar nominations (and wins) to the actresses he works with (Julie Walters was nominated for Billy Elliot, Julianne Moore was nominated for The Hours and Nicole Kidman and Kate Winslet won an Oscar for The Hours and The Reader, respectively), so getting nominated is a very likely thing to happen to her according to historic facts... In her Oscar acceptance speech, Bullock said something like she will try to never give a step back in her career and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close seems a step forward, definetly! I believe she can be as heart-breaking as she was in The Blind Side, but the question is if her lucky win be an disadvantage: she got the Oscar as a career recognition and a "We love you Sandra, you're so funny and popular!", so some may not want to be too kind for her again and give the Oscar nomination to an actresses who might need it. But Bullock is too popular... if she gets critically acclaim in this one, she has an Oscar nomination assured!
5.
Scarlett Johansson for We Bought a Zoo
She was already one of the critics' darlings and one of the greatest promises of her generation, but taking roles that didn't ask for real acting chops made Scarlett Johansson being taken less seriously as a good actress and more as a beautiful girl who acts, a sex symbol, but things changed due to her Tony Award win, who might be a great help to put her cinema career back on track. Cameron Crowe assumed he had Scarlett Johansson as his number one choice for the part of Kelly, so he saw something in her... Now, We Bought a Zoo is getting some Best Picture Oscar buzz and Scarlett is being mentioned as a contender in the Best Supporting Actress category. Cameron Crowe directed Renée Zellweger in her breakthrough performance in Jerry Maguire, Kate Hudson in her (only) great performance in Almost Famous, Frances McDormand funny and heartbreaking portray of a mum in Almost Famous or Cameron Diaz as an obcessive woman in Vanilla Sky, so I believe he will take the best of Johansson and pull a good performance from her. "Fortunately" for Johansson, she was already snubed a big couple of times for Lost In Translation (2003), Girl With Pearl Earring (2003), A Love Song for Bobby Long (2004) and Match Point (2005) and starred in some critically acclaimed hits like The Horse Whisperer, The Man Who Wasn't There, Ghost World, The Prestige or Vicky Cristina Barcelona, so Academy voters may take her as a young actress who already paid her dues at 26 years old and nominate her... but they are the same people who refused to nominate her some years ago, so she really needs to impress and show something as good as she never did before in We Bought a Zoo and hope that the movie keeps in the Best Picture race until the voting days.
UNDER SERIOUS CONSIDERATION:
6.
Carey Mulligan for Shame
Since her career's beginning, Mulligan seems to make wise choices and even after an Academy Award nomination for An Education, she keeps choosing good movies and not taking the "factory" kind of actress who takes everything that makes money (in fact, Mulligan seems one of the few actresses who doesn't seem very concerned in not starring in the blockbuster kind of movie). This year, Carey will appear in Steve McQueen's Shame, starring alongside Michael Fassbender (who plays a sex-addict), portraying the wayward sister of the leading character. While Shame may have too much controversial scenes and be about a controverse theme like sex-addiction, the mediatic impact the movie might have could be an advantage to Mulligan. She already proved she has acting talent and that she takes good projects, so a second Oscar nomination would be worthy and playing a kind of character that seems a bit scene-stealing but complex at the same time may get huge raves from the critics and since Carey Mulligan became a kind of "the-most-lovely-actress-in-the-world", seeing her playing a "less nice" kind of person in Shame seems interesting! Plus, she's being taken really seriously by the cinematic community and got the so wanted and difficult role of Daisy Buchanan in Baz Lhurman's adaptation of The Great Gatsby. But she was already nominated in 2009 for An Education and Gatsby comes to theaters next year and it's the kind of Oscar-worthy role, due to its complexity, a big couple of Oscar voters may not nominate and make her wait one more year - she must be completely phenomenal in order to get nominated this year!
7.
Judi Dench for J. Edgar
Dame Judi Dench have been way from Oscar nominations since 2006's Notes on a Scandal and since the AMPAS people love her, J. Edgar may be an excelent excuse to nominate her again. Playing J. Edgar Hoover's mother seems a good part for sure and Dench is a wonderful actress and she is always amazing, but the question is how much screen time and how showy is her part! I can't forget that her Oscar win for Shakespeare in Love is the second-shortest performance to win the Supporting Actress Oscar, with only six minutes of screen time, but she was a kind of scene-stealing and Anne Marie may be too normal since there are no big details about the screenplay. However, a Clint Eastwood movie is a Clint Eastwood movie and J. Edgar's Best Picture Oscar buzz is making Dench getting some respectful consideration in the biggest Oscar foruns, which is a wonderful start in the search of Oscar recognition. I believe the Academy want to nominate her, but she won't get it unless her role is challenging enough. Last year, two "mums" were competing for the Best Supporting Actress Academy Award (Melissa Leo for The Fighter and Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom), with one of them winning (Leo), but their parts were great and their performances outstanding, but there's no certainties about Dench's role's meat in J. Edgar.
8.
Octavia Spencer for The Help
Spencer plays a scene stealer in The Help and she got praised for her funny performance as the black maid with nuts! In fact, the AMPAS voters use to like scene-stealers in the supporting categories, like Melissa Leo for The Fighter or even Judi Dench in her six minutes in Shakespeare In Love, but Octavia Spencer may be in disadvantage due to the light tone of The Help. While the movie isn't a true comedy, but a light drama in my opinion and according to the reviews, there are intense scenes, but her part is mostly funny, a comedic one! The movie is an ensemble piece with an outstanding cast with good performance, but it's Davis' and Spencer's performance that shine brighter than the rest of the other members of the cast's. We can say that while Viola Davis has the drama of the movie, the soul, the heat, Octavia Spencer has the comedy, the good mood, the energy, the laughs. It's pretty common to see the comedic performers being put in the shadow of the dramatic ones, but it seems that Spencer more than holds herself alongside Davis, fighting for a different kind of attention. But Spencer's competition isn't only her co-star, there are other contenders in the Best Supporting Actress category with more dramatic parts and some of them are overdue for a nomination and you know that the AMPAS likes to put some performers waiting a couple of years before nominating them, which may happen to Octavia Spencer. Maybe she will have a strong enough awards season and the Oscar voters will want a comedy spot in the list... this way I think Spencer may get an almost instant nomination.
9.
Mia Wasikowska for Albert Nobbs
We can say she had the perfect pre-Oscar nomination year in 2010 with one big blockbuster - Alice In Wonderland - and a Best Picture Oscar nominated independent movie - The Kids Are All Right - and this year she seems to have the Oscar-friendly role... Well, it may not be an Oscar-friendly role, but at least it seems one: the girl who is the protegé of a cross-dressing woman who lives under the identity of a man named Albert Nobbs. There aren't a lot of details about Mia's character, but it seems promising so far: the pretty naïve girl. But, it may not be a juicy part at all and Mia may have to wait some time in order to get her first Oscar nod and since she starred in the critically praised Jane Eyre in the beginning of this year, I believe the awards attentions will be divided between her works in Albert Nobbs and Jane Eyre and, in the end, she may not win anything or even not getting nominated (she wouldn't be the first one). In spite of Mia's serious reputation between the actresses of her age, in spite of her talent and in spite of her brilliant career so far, miss Wasikowska may not be nominated this year in the Best Supporting Actress category for Albert Nobbs. She was directed by Rodrigo García in this one and everyone who saw Nine Lives or Mother and Child knows how he can pull great performances from all the cast members and Mia is consistently competent in all her performances, so I don't have any doubts about her performance's quality in the upcoming Albert Nobbs - the question is how juicy/showy/touching is her role or is she able to make the part Oscar-friendly?
NOTE: At 13th August 2011, I changed these Academy Awards 2012 Best Supporting Actress predictions by retiring Shailene Woodley for The Descendants from this list after seeing The Secret Life of an American Teenager and after reading the rave reviews given to Octavia Spencer for The Help.
Comments