1.
Viggo Mortensen for A Dangerous Method
Freud is one of the most interesting historic characters for sure, so portraying him on screen may be a real challenge, but also a good excuse for raves, which makes Viggo Mortense on of the top contenders in the Best Supporting Actor Oscar race. There are a big couple of reason for such a huge buzz around Mortense's performance in A Dangerous Method: he already is a proven talent with great performances in A History of Violence, The Lord of the Rings trilogy, his Academy Award nominated performance in Eastern Promises and his work in The Road and once A Dangerous Method is a serious Best Picture contender, there's something in the air for him. A real-fact is that Mortensen best performance all came from a David Cronenberg movie (A History of Violence and Eastern Promises), so, it's not strange saying that Viggo has a seat reserved in the Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominees list, but let's no get take predicting risks and say that he has everything to get that seat and that he only needs the critical acclaim in order to elevate the movie and his performance and create awards traction. The AMPAS love real-life characters and is respected enough to get nominated and maybe something more... He's the man that the others must beat right now!
2.
Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Ides of March
He's a great actor and an Academy Award darling and since The Ides of March's trailer makes his part look juicier than the other supporting actors', I believe that Mr. Seymour Hoffman has good Oscar chances this year. He has a fenomenal body of work, 3 Oscar nominations (with 1 win for Capote) and an amazing talent that makes every performance he delivers so good to watch! I don't know much about his character, only that he plays Paul Zara, Clooney's character's campaign manager and Ryan Gosling's character's mentor, which may turn him as the man full of ethics of the movie, making him one major attention focus of an extraordinary ensemble cast that will certainly shine together. The main problem of Hoffman is the major advantage of the whole movie: the cast - I mean, with such a lot of talent in the same scene, good characters and good performances, it may be difficult for any actor to be the most shinning star... But Philip Seymour Hoffman has the scene-stealer factor (do you remember Almost Famous?) and while his part may not be THAT showy, he has things full of meaning to say and this way, he will be under the Academy voters' radar and will get an easy nomination.
3.
Albert Brooks for Drive
The buzz after Cannes around Albert Brooks performance as the badass villain of Nicolas Winding Refn's Drive is huge! I mean, if all this Oscar thoughts around his performance keep going he won't become a contender for an Academy Award nomination but a potential winner. The AMPAS love bad guys (Javier Bardem in No Country For Old Men, Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight or Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds), so, from the point of character's conception, Brooks was already in advantage comparing to other contenders, but it seems that he delivered a great performance and once the movie is getting a lot of critical praise, I can see good things happening to him due to Drive. I don't think he needs Best Picture buzz around the movie he's in, because the reviews about his work are very solid and he may get enough Oscar traction if he has a good awards season. I can see him as the male Jacki Weaver of this year, but I hope he gets more recognition from the awards than her (sorry, but I think Albert Brooks is a very interesting actor). I see some good things comming in Brooks direction, maybe an Oscar nod is between them...
4.
Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Christopher Plummer was underrated and snubed by the Academy during too much time, in my opinion, and his turn as a dying old man that assumes his homossexuality in Mike Mills' Beginners was critically raved and Plummer is getting Oscar buzz this year again. The Last Station was a good movie and Plummer's supporting role as the famous Tolstoi earned him his first Academy Award nomination and the AMPAS may want to nominate him again for all this year's of snub (he deserved an Oscar nod for The Insider, at least) and his performance in Beginners seems an excelent excuse since he's playing a character that's a combination of two kinds of Oscar-loved characters - a gay man and a dying man. Critics describe him as "textured" or "a rare wit" and the foruns folks include Plummer in their Best Supporting Actor predictions, so I think there are good chances for him. The movie is a very personal project (it's inspired in Mike Mills' personal life) and it wasn't a commercial success like independent productions like Black Swan or The Kids Are All Right were, but Beginners benefits from strong performances and its director, which will certainly have a good independent awards season, for sure, which may create enough Oscar traction to Plummer earning him his second nomination. I think he has a comfortable spot in this race, at the moment, but the shadows of the past's snubs may haunt him.
5.
Thomas Horn for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Well, Stephen Daldry directed Jamie Bell in Billy Elliot and, for some reason I don't know, the young Bell didn't get an Oscar nomination for his fantastic performance as a boy who goes to ballet classes instead of boxing, which leads us to the most recent child actor working with Stephen Daldry: Thomas Horn, who got the delicious part of Oskar in the adaptation of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. The boy is a newcomer and plays a child who searches New York for the lock that matches a key his father gave to him when he was killed in the Spetember 11 attacks, starring in a movie that's getting a huge Best Picture buzz, between another categories, which makes us realize how taken seriously the young Horn must be. The AMPAS usually don't like young MALE actors, but there were some exceptions in the Best Supporting category like Justin Henry for Kramer Vs Kramer (8 years old at the time of the nominations announcement) or Haley Joel Osment for The Sixth Sense (11 years old at the time of the nominations announcement), just to name a few. So, Horn has Oscar chances and once the movie is getting so much Oscar attention and it wasn't even released, I think this young actor will get nominated if the reviews take him seriously and praise him (like they did with Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit).
UNDER SERIOUS CONSIDERATION:
6.
Niels Arestrup for War Horse
Niels Arestrup's opening monologue in War Horse trailer made me wondering how meaty can his part be and since he was incredible but incredibly underrated in Jacques Audiard's A Prophete, I can see him getting some awards attention this year. According to the movie's available information, Arestrup plays a old French farmer who lives with his granddaughter, being changed and inspired by a horse who tries to go back home, running from World War I scenario. Arestrup is not a young actor at all (62 years old) and in spite of not being THAT OLD, he may benefit from the same factor that gave an Oscar nomination to Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild: the fear of not having another opportunity to recognize him alive (I'm not saying that Arestrup is dying or something)... So, there's nothing much to say: Niels Arestrup has a great career with critically acclaimed movies in his body of work (Meeting Venus, The Beat That My Heart Skipped, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly or A Prophet), is an underrated performer and he's starring in the movie that's getting more Best Picture Oscar buzz - War Horse... A nomination is possible for Niels Arestrup, specially if he shines brighter than the other actor in an ensemble cast kind of picture War Horse seems to be!
7.
Armie Hammer for J. Edgar
Last year, Armie Hammer's breakthrough performance in The Social Network gave him a lot of critical praise and a couple of big awards nominations and a few wins, so there are some big expectations around his performance as J. Edgar Hoover's lover in the upcoming J. Edgar by Clint Eastwood. The homossexual lover role already gave Oscar nominations to a couple of actors like Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain and created a lot of buzz around James Franco's performance in Milk, but while J. Edgar promises to be something more historic and less a love story, Hammer may see his chances a bit smaller, but he benefits from his fresh breakthrough performance last year and from the fact that J. Edgar is seen as a serious contender in the Best Picture Oscar race. So, Armie Hammer may get the Academy's recognition this year, but the road has some obstacles and one of them is the competition. This way, Hammer will need really strong reviews in order to assure a spot between the nominees, but the question is how much screen-time he has in the movie and how is his character's development...
8.
John Hawkes for Martha Marcy May Marlene
Martha Marcy May Marlene may be Elizabeth Olsen's show, but John Hawkes was also raved and is getting Oscar buzz too for his terrific performance as the leader of a cult group that creates a bound with a girl (Olsen's character). Last year, Hawkes received his first Oscar nomination for his work in the Sundance hit Winter's Bone, so it's hard to imagine how big are his chances in getting another nomination this year for his performance in another independent cinema sucess. Martha Marcy May Marlene might not be the Sundance winner, but it one of the critically most sucessful pictures that made part of the festival, getting also raves at Cannes. Due to the success of the movie, it promises a big awards season, specially in the independent cinema awards league, which will increase Hawkes Oscar buzz and maybe getting another Oscar nomination for him. But if beating some major contenders last year in the Best Supporting Actor race was considered a very "lucky" thing by some folks, it's a lot of luck doing the same this year, but sometimes talent and work are superior than the status and maybe the AMPAS fell in love for him since last year...
9.
George Clooney for The Ides of March
After watching The Ides of March trailer, I had a sensation that George Clooney is in his comfort zone, by playing a character that seems a bit similar to Michael Clayton. In spite of this fact, I have some serious doubts about Clooney's Best Supporting Actor Oscar chances, since Morris (his part) doesn't seem a showy one in the way that may be too normal, not too challenging role and since we already saw a similar Clooney in other movies, I think he has a troubled road in his way. But, the Best Picture Oscar buzz around The Ides of March is huge and the trailer showed something that seems really thrilling, a movie that screams Oscar, so I can't ignore the Clooney factor in the movie: Clooney is the director, he is one of the screenwriters and he has an important part in the movie. While I truly believe he has great chances in the Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay fields for this one and in the Best Leading Actor category for The Descendants, the AMPAS love him and may want to name 2011 "The Clooney's Year". Ignoring Clooney as a contender in the Best Supporting Actor Oscar race seems a mistake for me, but a bit risky at the same time. Clooney isn't as versatile as many actors, but he has the recognition others don't have and he's George Clooney! It's all about Clooney this year...
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