Academy Awards 2012 Best Leading Actor nominees predictions (4th round)

1.

Leonardo DiCaprio for J. Edgar

The Oscar buzz around his performance is huge that if DiCaprio fails in delivering the performance prediction folks are expecting from him, I can see him not being nominated, but we are talking about Leonardo DiCaprio... One of his weakest acting features is his voice - it's not a nice one, it's not pleasant to hear - but DiCaprio has an incredible facial expressivity and he's really charismatic and magnetic on screen. Playing real-life figures is a natural Oscar-buzz generator, but when we are talking about one of the most controversial politic figures (J. Edgar Hoover), who was homossexual and is portrayed by one of the biggest movie stars of the last years, we go straightforward to a possible Oscar win. In fact, while DiCaprio is underrated for some and overrated for others, I think the recognition he gets from the cinema industry is what he really deserves (of course I think he should be nominated for an Oscar for his best performance to date in The Departed instead of Blood Diamond) and I think the AMPAS want to give him the highest honour an actor could ask! I mean, he's on the radar for years, most of his movies are really good and the man can act! Playing J. Edgar Hoover in a Clint Eastwood directed biopic like J. Edgar is just the perfect envyronment for taking a golden statue home and the trailer makes his performance looking promising!

2.

George Clooney for The Descendants

He got some of the best reviews of his acting career in the last editions of Telluride Film Festival and Toronto Film Festival due to his work in Alexander Payne's The Descendants. While the movie proved to be something more than just a character study à la About Schmidt, the movie was elevated by Clooney's performance who was said to be on "the top of his form". In fact, The Descendants shows a Clooney in crisis who's a dad of two girls (I think I never saw him playing a father), which evidences that he's ageing and taking roles that are appropriated for him - he's ageing with elegance and the AMPAS loves it, for sure. He's one of the biggest celebrities of today and he already showed he can act, so it won't be hard for him to get the Oscar voters love since he's so popular for his work in and out of the cinema industry. Directing, writing and starring in The Ides of March surely helps, but if Clooney gets an Academy Award nomination in the Best Actor field (which something really likely to happen) it would be mostly due to the acting performance itself than for his status or the Academy's politics. Payne is always excellent with his movie's actors and Clooney was no exception and the role of a man trying to be a good father after his wife's death is just too Oscar-baity to be ignored after a strong performance.

3.

Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier

One of the biggest AMPAS crimes is Gary Oldman not being an Academy Award nominee actor. He's one of the best and most interesting actors of the last decades with a lot of strong performance and what is (or should be) a reference of body of work for any actor. He was mentioned as one of the acting references of a big couple of talented and Oscar nominated actors and it seems that the AMPAS found the perfect excuse to recognize him soon: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. The movie was released during this year's edition of Venice Film Festival and Gary Oldman was one of the targets of the raves the movie got. His performance as a cold-hearted retired spy with nothing personal besides a failed marriage seems really Oscary, specially when his character look so mysteryous and has such great lines to deliver! While it seems that Oldman highs his voice only one time during the whole movie, it turns things even more interesting, since people got impressed by his performance without seeing him "screaming" - it sounds that Mr. Oldman performed a kind of emboidment of his character. With or without Oscar nomination, Gary Oldman will be considered one of the greatest actors of our time, but since the Academy wants to be seen as a "nice institution" who honours real talent, I can see him getting nominated this year (finally!).

4.

Jean Dujardin for The Artist

The Artist Oscar buzz is becoming a really serious thing now the awards seasons is close to begin and Jean Dujardin, the star of the movie, may get an Academy Award nomination very easily. Maybe the most interesting contender in this year's Oscar race, Dujardin came from some place I didn't know and won the Cannes Film Festival Award of Best Actor and got outstanding raves for his silent performance as an silent movie star and this fact can be his biggest advantage: delivering such a great performance without even speak! A lot of actors would be awful in this role, even much of Dujardin's fearless competition - his performance is something wonderful because people get touched not for what he says but because what he feels and manages to express! With all the critical acclaim Dujardin and The Artist got, with all the Oscar buzz around the movie, with all the success in every film festival the movie screened and since the AMPAS always loves to recognize French actors and actresses, Jean Dujardin is likely to be part of the 5 chosen for the Best Leading Actor chairs and, who knows (if the awards season is nice to Dujardin) a possible win (he can be a male version of Marion Cotillard who won an Oscar for La vie en rose).

5.

Michael Fassbender for Shame

There was a lot of Oscar buzz around Mr. Fassbender for David Cronenberg's A Dangerous Method, but it seems that prediction folks have been predicting for the wrong movie. Shame gave the Volpi Cup of Best Actor of Venice Film Festival to Michael Fassbender and the movie received a lot of movies for being such an artistic and raw movie about sex addiction, where he plays a sex-addicted. In fact, it has been a great year for Fassbender who made part of the critically acclaimed Jane Eyre, X-Men: First Class and now A Dangerous Method and Shame, so there's no way of not being present in the Oscar voters minds. Critics raved his "tour de force" and "dynamite" performance and Venice recognized it, but we can't forget that Shame is a Steven McQueen movie and it may be too raw, too honest for the AMPAS tastes, who usually like more "processed" cinema. The movie has a lot of full frontal nudity from Fassbender, which may be seen as an advantage or disadvantage, but the fact is that this guy can act and that he's one of the biggest rising stars of nowadays in cinema industry. He's getting the "really serious actor" status and I can see the Oscar voters voting in one of their golden boys.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6.

Michael Shannon for Take Shelter

While Mr. Shannon is no superstar, in spite of being a great actor and already having a surprising/unexpected Oscar nomination in the Best Supporting Actor category for his work in Sam Mendes' Revolutionary Road, I can see his performance in Take Shelter as a young father and husband who has apocalyptic visions and tries to save his family from what he thinks that may be a big comming storm, becoming paranoic, getting some Oscar voters attentions. Take Shelter was released in Sundance Film Festival and it got raves and, then, it was part of Cannes Film Festival and it was the winner of Critics Week Grand Prize and Shannon's performance received universal raves, being described as a "powerhouse" one. Shannon may be the indie representative in the Best Actor category of the Oscar nominees list, but his competition is composed by a lot of well-known faces that have the popularity and worldwide recognition as factors on their side, but I think the actors community like him a lot and since he's constantely delivering good performances and stays away from the worldwide celebrity status, I can see him as a possible Oscar nominee this year if he will get a nice awards season, but his competition is serious and Take Shelter may be the kind of movie that gets the recognition of the indie awards and critics associations only.

7.

Matt Damon for We Bought a Zoo

In We Bought a Zoo, Matt Damon portrays Benjamin Mee, a father of two who lost his wife who died with cancer and then decided to buy a zoo with his family and start a new life. The AMPAS love this kind of character: people who are trying to start their lives again after a tragedy and the role of a widow man with motherless kids seems really meaty and something that may be really Oscary when in the hands of a talented actor like Damon who's directed by a good director like Cameron Crowe. In fact, Crowe gave an Oscar nomination to Tom Cruise by directing him in Jerry Maguire and Damon (who received acting nods for Good Will Hunting and Invictus) may be the next Crowe's movies' leading man to get that honour. The movie tone will be a mix of a comedy and drama and it promises to be heartbreaking and if Damon gives a performance that's able to bound with the audience and make the audience wanting to take care of his character, Damon may get the Best Leading Actor nod with no big problem. The problem here is the possibility of a heartbreaking movie sound a bit lame, but I trust Cameron Crowe in spite of Elizabethtown (it was just one movie) and the movie trailer gives us what seems to be a great and inspiring family movie that promises to be emotionally ressonant. Plus, Damon's role proves he is aging gracefully and that's something the AMPAS loves to see and to honour!

8.

Ryan Gosling for Drive

One of the most charismatic actors working today is portraying one of the most charismatic cinematic characters of 2011 so far and it can generate an unexpected Oscar buzz around Ryan Gosling for his performance in Drive. In a year where all the prediction folks are expecting an Oscar nod for Gosling for The Ides of March, I can see him getting one better for Drive, because the movie itself seems to be much more interesting, it is a critically raved arthouse action movie and Gosling plays a mix of Travis Bickle (Taxi Driver) and The Man With No Name (Clint Eastwood starred westerns) - doesn't it sound much more interesting? Critics praised Gosling's nuanced, masculine, stylish, serene, but strong performance as a stunt-driver with no name that get his hands a bit dirty, in a role that could easily be a "macho man" one. Gosling does always good, but he's really underrated when the conversation comes to awards and seeing him as an Oscar nominee in the Best Leading Actor category isn't an obvious thing, but it is possible. Drive brought something fresh to the action genre, which certainly will put a smile in all the fans and non-fans of the genre, and Gosling is the man who drives us in the movie. Plus, his status as the best actor of his generation helps and he has a good fanbase and so is the movie... I would like to see him between the nominees - it's possible, but not very likely to happen.

9.

Ryan Gosling for The Ides of March

Reviews praised The Ides of March instead of raving it and Gosling's performance was universally acclaimed, but it isn't a guarantee of an Oscar nomination for one of the best actors working today. Gosling is having a great year with acclaimed projects like Crazy, Stupid, Love, The Ides of March and Drive, but he was a victim of one of the ugliest Oscar snubs I've ever seen when his performance in Blue Valentine didn't get an Oscar nomination and it can happen again, specially when he's competing against himself in the Best Leading Actor category for both March and Drive. Playing the smart campaign-worker of a presidential candidate was the juiciest role in George Clooney's directed movie and Gosling managed to deliver a good performance, but with The Ides of March tepid reception, I can only see him getting nominated after a good awards season and a massive Oscar campaign, because his Stephen Myers isn't as insteresting as his mysterious driver with no name.

10.

Brad Pitt for Moneyball

To be completely honest, I never had a lot of hopes on Moneyball and I still thinking it wouldn't fit well between the other this year's Oscar contenders, but it seems that it got a really strong reception from both critics and audiences and Pitt's performance as a baseball trainer was acclaimed as well. Brad Pitt is a good actor, not the best for sure, but he stills a very good one, and according to reviews his character is one of the most original ones that were seen in a baseball drama. With a screenplay written by Aaron Sorkin, I'm sure Pitt had great lines to say and since he's a deft comedic actor and a major cinema star, I can see the reason for his performance's praise and for the Oscar buzz around him. He's an extremely sympathetic actor on-screen, seems to be a nice guy and was already nominated for two Oscars (Best Supporting Actor for Twelve Monkeys and Best Leading Actor for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), so seeing him nominated for what promises to be a future box-office hit wouldn't surprise me at all. I thought he was very underrated in Coen brothers' Burn After Reading, so it's nice to seem him getting some serious recognition for doing some comedy, I'm happy for him but I know he doesn't have a seat between the 5 Best Leading Actors nominees guaranteed: he must campaign and have a great awards season in order to beat some other contenders, who, in my opinion, need an Oscar nomination more than him and, possibly, deserve such an honour more than him.

P.S.: Thomas Horn should be considered for the Best Leading Actor category, but according to Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close movie trailer credits, he's supporting. I will consider him Leading Actor for my next Academy Awards 2012 nominees predictions


MOST RECENT ACADEMY AWARDS 2012 BEST LEADING ACTOR NOMINEES PREDICTIONS:
http://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/2011/11/academy-awards-2012-best-leading-actor.html