1.
War Horse
Director: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Jeremy Irvine, Tom Hiddleston, Benedict Cumberbatch, Emily Watson, David Kross, Niels Arestrup and Celine Buckens
Synopsys: "Follows a young man named Albert and his horse, Joey, and how their bond is broken when Joey is sold to the cavalry and sent to the trenches of World War One. Despite being too young to enlist, Albert heads to France to save his friend."
Release date: 28th December, 2011
One year ago, we already had a big couple of strong Best Picture contenders appearing in films festivals, but it seems that most of the Oscar hopes are in the Christmas season and War Horse is an almost guaranteed December champion! The trailer gives us the smell of something that promises to be epic, touching and beautiful, so War Horse is a natural contender in a big couple of categories, which surely helps it in the Best Picture race. The West-End and Broadway productions of the play (that was an adaptation of a novel) of the same name were huge hits and a big-screen adaptation would seem a bit risky, but Steven Spielberg's name in the director's chair elevates this movie potential. It has been a while since a Steven Spielberg directed movie got a nomination in the Best Picture category (2005's Munich) and War Horse, with a plot set during World War I, has great chances in being the number one choice of a lot of AMPAS members, since they love war movies that are strong both artistic and technical categories (the trailer promises us a magnificient cinematography work, a beautiful score by John Williams and great art direction). Maybe a movie that follows a young man named and his horse and how war broke their bond may not sound THAT good for some, but Spielberg can do magic behind the cameras and his name has a lot of power in the Academy.
2.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Director: Stephen Daldry
Starring: Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock, Thomas Horn, Viola Davis, James Gandolfini and Jeffrey Wright
Synopsys: "A nine-year-old amateur inventor, jewelry designer, astrophysicist, tambourine player and pacifist, searches New York for the lock that matches a mysterious key left by his father when he was killed in the September 11 attacks."
Release date: 25th December, 2011 (limited - USA)
Stephen Daldry is an Oscar "magnet" in the true meaning of the word - all the movies he does get nominated in the major categories (Billy Elliot was the only of his three movies that wasn't nominated in the Best Picture category) - and he's back this year with the highly antecipated Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, an adaptation of what seems to be a beloved book of the same name. According to the synopsys, it seems to be more a Billy Elliot than a The Hours or The Reader, but it doesn't mean less quality or less Oscar chances: in fact, it may be a more likely number one choice in the way that the new rules benefit more heart-friendly movies instead of more intellectual ones! There's a lot of talent involved and Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock names alone elevate this movie and generate buzz around it: they are very popular and Hanks got his last Oscar nom a long time ago while Sandra is just fresh from a win. The movie promises to touch hearts, but it also needs to match the expectations around it once the buzz is HUGE! America and the world will never forget September 11 attacks, let's see if Oscar voters don't forget Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close when the voting moment comes.
3.
The Artist
Starring: Jean Dujardin, Bérénice Bejo, John Goodman, James Cromwell and Penelope Ann Miller
Synopsys: "Hollywood, 1927: As silent movie star George Valentin wonders if the arrival of talking pictures will cause him to fade into oblivion, he sparks with Peppy Miller, a young dancer set for a big break."
Release date: 15th May, 2011 (Cannes Film Festival); 9th September, 2011 (Toronto International Film Festival); 23rd November, 2011 (USA)
To be completely honest, the Best Picture buzz around The Artist surprises, but it makes me smile. While I first thought it was only a Cannes hit and that it wouldn't get as much critical acclaim in Toronto International Film Festival as it got at Cannes, but I was wrong (fortunately!). At the first sight it may seem a bit too "uncommercial", too much "alternative", but the fact is that every festivals' audiences seem to fall in love with this movie. The movie is getting raves, people are seeing it, it looks very "Old School" and it is something fresh! So, there are a lot of reasons for The Artist getting a Best Picture nomination, specially when France can't take this one as its submission for the Best Foreign Picture category. The only thing that may play against a possible Best Picture nomination is what seems to be the movie's greatest quality: being a silent French production! "Silence" is something unusual in today's productions, but can Oscar voters enjoy the silence and just see and feel a movie? Well, I think that if they can't, they will be able to do that after seeing this one... The Artist seems to do not need noise at all!
4.
Midnight In Paris
Director: Woody Allen
Starring: Owen Wilson, Rachel McAdams, Marion Cotillard, Adrien Brody, Kathy Bates, Michael Sheen, Carla Bruni, Tom Hiddleston, Alison Pill and Léa Seydoux
Synopsys: "A romantic comedy about a family traveling to the French capital for business. The party includes a young engaged couple forced to confront the illusion that a life different from their own is better."
Release date: 11th May, 2011 (Cannes Film Festival); 20th May, 2011 (USA - limited); 10th June, 2011 (USA);
Whatever people say about the Oscar-quality of Midnight In Paris, I think that all the Oscar buzz around this one is due to the "Woody Allen comeback" that producers and fans are trying to "sell". I've no doubts about the movie's quality: it is so charming, funny and Paris and the characters look beautiful. This is Oscar material, that's for sure, specially when it is much more Woody's classics looking than his last projects. This is also the highest-grossing Woody Allen ever, the highest-grossing independent production of the year and one of the most beloved films by the critics and the audiences. Being such a hit generates a lot of Oscar buzz and since there are so many "Old School" people and Woody Allen lovers as part of the AMPAS, an Academy Award of Best Picture nomination for Midnight In Paris almost seems something guaranteed! We are in September and there stills a lot of buzz around this movie, it just must keep going until the awards season that will surely be brilliant for Midnight and it will generate an ever stronger Oscar buzz.
5.
The Descendants
Director: Alexander Payne
Starring: George Clooney, Shailene Woodley, Amara Miller, Beau Bridges and Judy Greer
Synopsys: "A land baron tries to re-connect with his two daughters after his wife suffers a boating accident."
Release date: 3rd September, 2011 (Telluride Film Festival); 10th September, 2011 (Toronto International Film Festival); 18th November, 2011 (USA)
The Descendants' critical reception surprised in the good way: what I thought would be a About Schmidt emmerged as something more complex and better than what the movie trailer promised. A movie with heart (but not too sentimentalist), a well-balanced comedy-drama, something unusually nuanced... Critics raved the acting, Payne's direction, the screenplay and the tone, making The Descendants one of the most successful movies present at the last film festivals. In fact, The Descendants seems the kind of movie the AMPAS usually likes, due to its content and due to Payne-Clooney team, which is great, because it generates a lot of Oscar voters taking it as one choice. It is Payne's follow-up to the critically acclaimed and Best Picture nominated Sideways and it seems that it was a great comeback. Being one of the brightest stars of a film festival helps, specially since these ones create the "first real Oscar buzz" of the season, so if The Descendants keeps shinning during the awards season, it will get a Best Picture nomination easily!
6.
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Director: David Fincher
Starring: Daniel Craig, Rooney Mara, Christopher Plummer, Stellan Skarsgård and Robin Wright
Synopsys: "Journalist Mikael Blomkvist (Craig) is aided in his search for a woman who has been missing for forty years by Lisbeth Salander (Mara), a young computer hacker."
Release date: 21st December, 2011 (USA)
There is a brilliant kick-ass trailer of what promises to be a brilliant kick-ass movie. There are a lot of people that doubt Fincher's adaptation of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo won't be better or as good as the Swedish one, because there will be too much comparations between them. In my opinion, I think the Swedish movie was a little bit overrated (but a good movie) and I bet Fincher will bring to this what lacked in the Swedish movie: a darker and more atmospheric movie. This movie seems to follow some of the same concepts of Se7en (mostly the cinematography style), the score was made by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, the Oscar-winners for last year's Fincher raved movie The Social Network and Steven Zaillian adapted the Stieg Larsson's novel... there are a lot of good premises! I believe The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo will be this year's Black Swan, but with more violence and more explicit sexual content. The commercial success seems to be assured and there are promises of critical acclaim, so, why not recognize a movie that will have a big fanbase? While the movie may not be the AMPAS' cup of tea, I believe The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo will catch the attention of the younger and action lovers Oscar voters and get a Best Picture nomination.
7.
Young Adult
Director: Jason Reitman
Starring: Charlize Theron, Patrick Wilson, Patton Oswalt and Elizabeth Reaser
Synopsys: "Soon after her divorce, a fiction writer returns to her home in small-town Minnesota, looking to rekindle a romance with her ex-boyfriend, who is now married with kids."
Release date: 16th December, 2011
Jason Reitman directed Thank You For Smoking, Juno and Up In the Air, with the last two being nominated in the Best Picture category, so it would be a mistake ignoring his upcoming Young Adult, in which he teams-up again with Diablo Cody (screenwriter) after the hit Juno. In fact, Young Adult seems to be a mix between Juno and Up In the Air, which may be delicious, and in spite of some rumours of a bad script, Reitman already proved the world that everything he directs, he does it gracefully and the result is never less than very good. The story of a young adult books writer that tries to get a former boyfriend, who raised a family without her, may seem a plot from a young adult kind of book, but maybe that's the point - this can be a story about growing up when we try to keep young and childish. It is described as a comedy-drama and who's better than Jason Reitman to find the right balance? It would be easy to take Juno to the melodramatic camp with comedy clichés, but the movie was really well-balanced! Young Adult has a strong talented cast leaded by Theron (Academy Award winner for Monster) and Wilson (Tony Award nominee), so there are a couple of thing Young Adult has to say before being removed from Best Picture predictions. It is a contender, but I only realized it today... Hope the others prediction folks understand why! Reitman directing, a Diablo Cody dialogue and Theron starring in it? I like this movie by only looking at its credits!
8.
The Help
Director: Tate Taylor
Starring: Emma Stone, Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer, Bryce Dallas Howard, Jessica Chastain, Allison Janney and Sissy Spacek
Synopsys: "An aspiring author during the civil rights movement of the 1960's decides to write a book detailing the African American Maid's point of view on the White families they work for, and they hardships they go through on a day to day basis."
Release date: 10th August, 2011 (USA)
The Help surprised everybody by becoming a box-office hit and being more serious than it promised to be. The critical reception was good, very good, but not raved. The acting ensemble was a target for very good reviews and the racial discrimination theme helps The Help in getting the audiences' sympathy and a lot of number one votes from Academy members. It never goes beyond than entertaining and touching, which is the movie's biggest fault since racial discrimination is something that should be portrayed in a really challenging way and not in a obvious one, but it is what increases its Oscar changes: it's not too heavy and extremely audience friendly! The movie may not be the best directed one or in technical aspects, but The Help has the heart in the right place thanks mostly to its cast's performances (specially Viola's): the "good" characters are extremely sympathetic, the "funny" ones are extremely funny and the "bad" girls are really mean! For the AMPAS members who are actors and actresses, The Help has great acting performances all around. For the AMPAS members who are Human Rights activists, The Help has racial discrimination as its main focus. For the AMPAS members who like to feel good, The Help is extremely satisfactory! An unexpected contender in the Best Picture race, but a strong one right now (the movie can be seen in a theater near you) - will the movie be able to keep the buzz after all the Christmas releases?
9.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
Director: David Yates
Starring: Daniel Radcliffe, Emma Watson, Rupert Grint, Ralph Fiennes, Helena Bonham Carter, Michael Gambon, Tom Felton, Maggie Smith, Gary Oldman and Emma Thompson
Synopsys: "Harry, Ron and Hermione search for Voldemort's remaining Horcruxes in their effort to destroy the Lord Voldemort."
Release date: 15th July, 2011
The last chapter of one of the best movie sagas ever (and one of the most profitable too) is also one of the best reviewed movies of the year so far, holding an impressive 97% at RT and a 87/100 at Metacritic, is the highest-grossing movie of the year (I know we are in September) and the third highest-grossing movie of all time. In fact, with such a great reception it is impossible to not take Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II seriously... it would be just wrong! The ensemble cast shines, the visual effects are dazzling, the cinematography work is beautiful and the sets decoration too, the sound and score are very appropriated and it is the best movie of the Summer by far! So, in my opinion, the last chapter of the Harry Potter franchise should take more respect from the highest prize of the cinema industry than the nominations it uses to get in the artistic and technical categories. History is against Harry Potter: the previous movies were only nominated in the Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Original Score and Visual Effects and they never took any Oscar home, but I believe the nostalgic feeling about the end of the series will seduce Oscar voters in wanting to nominate this one by making them thinking that honoring the last movie, they are honoring all the others. Plus, the movie is really entertaining and emotionally ressonant, which helps in taking it as a number one choice. Critics raved, audiences paid for it, will the AMPAS nominate it?
10.
We Bought a Zoo
Director: Cameron Crowe
Starring: Matt Damon, Scarlett Johansson, Thomas Hadden Church, Patrick Fugit and Elle Fanning
Synopsys: "Set in Southern California, a father moves his young family to the countryside to renovate and re-open a struggling zoo."
Release date: 23rd December, 2011 (USA)
If Fincher's The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo will be the feel-bad movie of Christmas, Cameron Crowe's We Bought a Zoo promises to be the feel-good one! Mr. Crowe already directed hits like Say Anything, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous and it seems he's back with a kind of movie that ressembles his classics more than Vanilla Sky or Elizabethtown. The plot is around the start of a new life for a widower man and his children that decide to buy a zoo and give it its former glory, which sounds like the kind of things the Academy loves once in a while. There's also a lot of talent involved in this project: besides Crowe, who directed and re-wrote the screenplay, the cast is composed by great names and Jónsi from Sigur Rós is scoring the movie. The trailer gives us the smell of something really adorable, with the heart in the right place and life lessons, in spite of seeming a bit cheesy for some people (let's blame the marketing department!). While We Bought a Zoo may be too cheesy as the trailer suggests, it can also impress, like what The Descendants did after the release of a trailer that created some low expectations. It's Cameron Crowe and it seems that everybody is hoping his comeback to universaly acclaimed movies. If We Bought a Zoo is his ticket to a "comeback", so I think this movie can have good chances in the Best Picture Oscar race, due to the feel-good aura it promises to have. Even Oscar voters love to feel something in their hearts, specially in Christmas!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11.
J. Edgar
Director: Clint Eastwood
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Armie Hammer, Naomi Watts, Josh Lucas and Judi Dench
Synopsys: "As the face of law enforcement in America for almost 50 years, J. Edgar Hoover was feared and admired, reviled and revered. But behind closed doors, he held secrets that would have destroyed his image, his career and his life."
Release date: 3rd November, 2011 (AFI Film Festival); 9th November, 2011 (USA)
A biopic isn't the kind of movie that people usually take as their favorite when the year ends, so it may be the main problem of J. Edgar in the Best Picture Oscar race. The talent involved elevates J. Edgar and creates a serious Oscar traction, and unless the movie is truly brilliant and has a heart, I don't see enough number one votes for this one. I'm not saying this will suck, I'm saying that biopics usually aren't as emotionally ressonant as "fiction" ones, in spite of some big exception like A Beautiful Mind or Ray. But, J. Edgar Hoover was a very controversial and mysterious figure of his time and the portray of his early years and secret homossexuality may touch some audiences, specially when Clint Eastwood is directing it! Period pieces tend to do well in artistic categories like Art Direction, Costume Design, Cinematography or Makeup, which surely helps J. Edgar in the Best Picture race, but what truly makes this one a serious thing to watch is its Oscar-winner screenwriter (Dustin Lance Black), Eastwood and all the huge buzz around Leonardo DiCaprio's performance as Hoover. Everything in J. Edgar promises this will be a very good movie, but it needs to be more than good, it needs to connect the audiences in order to be the favorite movie of more enough Oscar voters!
12.
Drive
Director: Nicolas Winding Refn
Starring: Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan, Albert Brooks, Bryan Cranston, Ron Perlman and Christina Hendricks
Synopsys: "A Hollywood stunt performer who moonlights as a wheelman discovers that a contract has been put on him after a heist gone wrong."
Release date: 20th May, 2011 (Cannes Film Festival); 17th June, 2011 (Los Angeles Film Festival); 10th September, 2011 (Toronto International Film Festival); 16th September, 2011 (USA);
One of the most successful movies in the festival circuit, Drive promises to be an unexpected surprise this awards season, in my opinion. Extremely artfully stylized, with some connections with the noir style and very artistic violence, Drive is an unusual action movie - an arthouse one. A masterpiece or not, the movie is rocking between the critics, collecting raves and it has potential to be a commercial success and get a strong fanbase. While the plot and the trailer may evoque some Taxi Driver memories or a Steve McQueen (the actor) movie, it seems to have its own identity and being something fresh in a time where action movies seem to follow always a standard style and a predictable plot. The cast is terrific and having the charismatic Ryan Gosling driving the audiences is certainly an advantage for Drive, specially when both audiences and critics seem to get caught in a Gosling fever. The question here is how many number one votes Drive will get during the Best Picture battle: while it can be delicious for action lovers, how many Oscar voters will stay away from this one and choose something more classy and Oscar looking? Drive isn't surely the AMPAS cup of tea, but if it does well in tickets sales, I believe the Academy may want to have a 21st century Taxi Driver in one of the possible 10 Best Picture nominees. It's unlikely, but it's possible.
13.
The Ides of March
Director: George Clooney
Starring: Ryan Gosling, George Clooney, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Paul Giamatti, Evan Rachel Wood, Jeffrey Wright and Marisa Tomei
Synospys: "An idealistic staffer for a newbie presidential candidate gets a crash course on dirty politics during his stint on the campaign trail."
Release date: 31st August, 2011 (Venice Film Festival); September, 2011 (Toronto International Film Festival); 7th October, 2011 (USA)
Reviews from Venice and Toronto were good but not raves. It's solid, but it isn't spectacular and in spite of a shinning cast helping the movie being classified in a good level of quality, The Ides of March was the disapointment of many people, maybe too many, indeed! The fourth George Clooney directing project was the chosen to be on the opening of Venice Film Festival, which is a great honour, and got mostly positive reviews, which is already a win for any director, but the Oscar hopes are so much lower at this time. The movie is no Good Night, Good Luck and it will need a really strong Oscar campaign and a strong awards season in order to be considered a front-runner again, but things aren't pretty for The Ides of March: it's thrilling, it's leaded by Gosling, but can be a bit dry! The competition for a Best Picture nomination is very strong and I believe The Ides of March won't be the favorite movie of enough Oscar member, but... well... you know... if George Clooney campaigns for The Ides of March, there's a nice shot for the movie. People just love George Clooney and the AMPAS members are no exception!
14.
Like Crazy
Director: Drake Doremus
Starring: Anton Yelchin and Felicity Jones
Synopsys: "A British college student falls for an American student, only to be separated from him when she's banned from the U.S. after overstaying her visa."
Release date: 22nd January, 2011 (Sundance Film Festival); September, 2011 (Toronto International Film Festival); 28th October, 2011 (USA)
Described like beautiful and acclaimed by the press, Like Crazy is the big winner of this year's edition of Sundance Film Festival by taking home the Grand Jury Prize for Best Dramatic and a Special Jury Prize for Dramatic Acting for Felicity Jones and if there's something that we learnt about Sundance is that this indie film festival can be the first step for some Best Picture nominees. Precious: Based On the Novel "Push" by Sapphire and Winter's Bone were two Sundance winners that get a Best Picture nomination and Like Crazy may be the next one. While it isn't called "a masterpiece", the movie benefits from being an honest, raw and beautiful portray of a two young lovers that were separated due to legal issues. Since there's no big indie contenders if we exclude The Descendants or Midnight In Paris, Like Crazy may be the choice of independent cinema AMPAS members and of the most romantic ones. The leads performances are said to be strong and their chemistry too, so it won't be hard to seduce some voters, but I believe Like Crazy must do well in the awards season and take home some major indie awards and campaigning. It's a dark-horse, but it there stills hope for this one.
15.
The Tree of Life
Director: Terrence Malick
Starring: Sean Penn, Brad Pitt and Jessica Chastain
Synopsys: "The story centers around a family with three boys in the 1950s. The eldest son witnesses the loss of innocence."
Release date: 16th May, 2011 (Cannes Film Festival); 27th May, 2011 (USA - limited)
Winner of the so wanted Palme D'Or of Cannes Film Festival, The Tree of Life is seen by the majority of cinema experts as a cinematic masterpiece, one of the best art-house movies of the last years and a phylosofical picture about the meaning of being alive. It may seem too "alternative" cinema, but the fact is that the director is the already legendary Terrence Malick, who has a fanatic fanbase and a small body of work (5 movies since 1973), make each movie he releases a cinematic event. With a lot of raves, a not-bad-at-all-box-office-performance-for-a-limited-released and a cast leaded by Brad Pitt, Sean Penn and Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life has chances in the Best Picture Oscar race in spite of not being the better ones. For most people, the feelings about the movie are quite ambiguous (quite beautiful to watch, but boring at the same time; quite beautiful subject, but you didn't understand the movie;), which may be an disadvantage, but the fact is that this is a nearly-perfect motion picture for those art-house lovers and people who like to go home without stop thinking about the movie they watched. While there are other contenders that may be far more entertaining, The Tree of Life is the perfect movie for intellectuals, but the question is if the non-so-intellectual Oscar voters will have The Tree of Life as their favorite. It's hard to see such a too Malick movie getting a Best Picture nomination, in spite of deserving it!
LATEST ACADEMY AWARDS 2012 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES PREDICTIONS:
http://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/2011/12/academy-awards-2012-best-picture.html
LATEST ACADEMY AWARDS 2012 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES PREDICTIONS:
http://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/2011/12/academy-awards-2012-best-picture.html
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