I would call Best Actor the most competitive category in this year’s above the line Oscar races. So many worthy contenders that I must mention the ones I left out my top 10 simply because there aren’t enough spots for all of them: George McKay for 1917; Roman Griffin Davis for Jojo Rabbit; Paul Thomas Hauser for Richard Jewell; or Robert Pattinson for The Lighthouse. All worthy of a nomination or more widespread award recognition, but Best Actor is a bloodbath indeed.
Just like in my previous round of predictions, Adam Driver (Marriage Story) and Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) still are the clear frontrunners. The later delivers the showiest performance of the pack of Best Actor contenders – a man with psychiatric issues who turns into a criminal. It’s a descent to madness tale and Phoenix excels in a transformative performance! It might well be his first Oscar nod since his Oscar nomination for Best Actor for 2012's The Master - with amazing (snubed) performances in Her (2013) and You Were Never Really Here (2018) building a "he's overdue for his 4th Oscar nomination" narrative. Joker might not be the Academy’s cup of tea and I can see it missing Best Picture, but it is a R-rated box-office hit, grossing over than $ 1Billion worldwide and being loved by a faithful fanbase (the internet and general audiences seem to be rooting for a Phoenix win). Plus, Phoenix got Golden Globe, SAG Award and Critics’ Choice Award nominations and he has been doing well with critics prizes, especially considering the polar reception of the movie among critics. As for Driver… he has become an extremely popular and respected actor, not only because of his Oscar nominated turn in last year’s BlacKkKlansman, but also because he also starred the acclaimed The Report and assumed the leading man status of the new Star Wars trilogy – but he delivers a performance of a lifetime in Marriage Story as a divorcing man who’s getting destroyed inside because of a divorce process. It’s a Oscar-worthy performance, Marriage Story is one of the top contenders for Best Picture and Driver has already received Golden Globe, SAG and Critics’ Choice Award nominations and multiple critics prizes for this acting turn – he looks like a lock for a nomination, right now! As All the other spots seem very volatile, but I would say Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) is the 3rd contender in the Best Actor race – he has not only won the Cannes Film Festival prize for Best Performance by a Male Actor, but he also took home the European Film Award for Best Actor and the prestigious NYFCC Award for Best Actor and the LAFCA Award for Best Actor. So, he’s a critics darling! Banderas also managed to get a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama, a Critics’ Choice Award for Best Actor and a Goya Award for Best Actor nod. I know he missed a SAG Award nod, but given the heavy recognition he has been getting from top critics organizations and the prestigious European prizes, I guess he sounds safe to land the first Oscar nomination of his career (he also has the “he’s overdue” narrative by his side). My 4th spot goes to Christian Bale for playing Ken Miles in Ford V. Ferrari. Personally, I think people are overlooking him and the movie itself, but I see him as a very strong contender for a nomination! Not only he has become an Oscar regular since his Oscar-winning performance in 2010’s The Fighter, but he delivers a charismatic performance and Miles is such a sympathetic character…! Plus, Ford V. Ferrari just feels like a traditional, yet excellent, yet always entertaining movie and I bet older Academy members will love the movie and its lead, of course. Bale is the beating heart of the movie and he has done good with precursors: Golden Globes, SAG and Critics’ Choice Awards noms, all checked! The fifth spot… well, I really was divided between Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and Taron Egerton (Rocketman), but ended up going for Egerton. In Rocketman, Egerton plays Elton John and he’s simply amazing! The movie as a very musical-like vibe the actor fully embodies and uses in perfect harmony with his portrayal of the British music icon. Feedback from the screenings for the Academy says AMPAS members loved the movie and considering Oscar has been kind for man playing gay man or man playing a famous musician in a biopic - I would say it plays like an advantage against more obvious contenders. Plus, Egerton is still a fresh face in Hollywood and the Academy might want to give his career a big pus. The guy has been campaigning (with Elton John’s himself support) and he has already landed a Golden Globe nom for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical (that I’m predicting him to win) and a SAG Award nod for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role!
The second tier is led by Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), who benefits not only from the movie’s Best Picture buzz, but also from his own stardom. In fact, DiCaprio is one of the biggest male movie stars of the last 20 years, who has met critical acclaim and the audiences love over the years – and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is both a box-office success and a critical darling, with DiCaprio getting praise for his performance as a fading Hollywood star struggling with his career. I know DiCaprio was nominated for Golden Globe, SAG and Critics’ Choice Awards, but considering he was snubed before in spite of great work in buzzy projects (2006’s The Departed, 2008’s Revolutionary Road, 2011’s J. Edgar and 2012’s Django Unchained) and since he’s a recent Oscar winner, I believe he’s in danger of being snubed – the AMPAS might want something more special to follow a winning turn. Then, I say Adam Sandler benefits from the critics prizes he has been collecting these days for his serious performance in Uncut Gems, but he also benefits from the movie’s box-office success – he had the rave reviews and now he has the numbers! And A24 is backing the movie and the Sandler campaign all the way, so don’t be surprise if the Academy embraces the comedic actor who goes serious (personally, I believe his reputation as the leading man of a lot of bad movies will deny him an Oscar nomination in the end). On the other side, there’s Robert DeNiro, who’s losing buzz after missing a Golden Globe and a SAG nod – which really worries me, since The Irishman managed to hit all the key nods for a Best Picture path, but DeNiro missed two of the biggest televised awards’ competitive nominees shortlists. He will receive a SAG Award for Lifetime Achievement, which will give him some visibility and an opportunity to deliver a speech, but these misses combined to being overshadowed by his co-stars don’t make it sound good for DeNiro no matter how buzzy The Irishman is (plus, Scorsese crime movies have always had trouble in getting their leading man an Oscar nom, with Day-Lewis being the exception). Besides Adam Sandler, there’s another contender who keeps rising in both my predictions and consideration: Eddie Murphy for Dolemite Is My Name. A 80’s and 90’s big movie star with exception comedic chops, Murphy was close to an Oscar win back in 2006/2007 for Dreamgirls, but he was upset by Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine: this year he’s back to Oscar talk in great form with Dolemite and he received rave reviews for his work. His acting turn as Rudy Ray Moore has already earned him a Golden Globe and a Critics’ Choice Award nods, which boosts his Oscar chances for sure, but there’s a little issue in this category: there are 4 contenders starring in Netflix movies, and Murphy seems to be a clear 4th in the campaigning priorities of the studio. Last, Jonathan Pryce, who plays Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio (future Pope Francis) in The Two Popes – the movie is an audience’s favorite, but it seems to be struggling at the box-office in spite of its limited release for qualifying purposes, with more modest numbers than other recent Netflix movies. Pryce’s performance is nuanced, yet luminous and uplifting, with Bergoglio’s mannerisms, from the way he walks to the way the talks – a brilliant performance in a great movie that was losing buzz until the Globes announced The Two Popes was nominated in 4 categories (unexpected!) including Best Motion Picture – Drama and… Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama for Pryce! It’s a “let’s wait and see” for him.
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