Academy Awards 2020 nominees predictions: Best Original Screenplay & Best Adapted Screenplay - 3rd ROUND

• BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Marriage Story’s essence is all about the script, it’s all about Baumbach’s words and silences – the actors even admitted it was all on paper – and it’s brilliant! The movie offers a raw approach to divorce and the end of a love story, which recalls its auteur own life – Baumbach is a safe bet for a Best Original Screenplay Oscar nomination. And Quentin Tarantino enters the Best Original Screenplay race again, this time with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood! Tarantino’s latest channels Hollywood and the late 60’s beautifully, plus the dialogue is top-notch and the third act is as hilarious as it is surprising: and the AMPAS loves Tarantino as the screenwriter, so, no big deal! A daring movie, with a dynamite social satire, Parasite is a big Oscar contender across the board and Best Original Screenplay is no exception. The late awards season surprise Knives Out became a much bigger Oscar contender than most people were expecting! Best Picture is on the table, but I would say Best Original Screenplay is a safe bet. The Farewell might just get the “respectable indie treatment” and get a nomination in this category since Academy members tend to go for movies they respect and acknowledge their brilliance by giving them a Best Original Screenplay nomination (just like First Reformed, remember?).

Pedro Almodóvar is a respected international auteur and the Academy sure likes him – Pain and Glory is his finest movie in years (I would say since Volver) and it is semi-autobiographical, so Academy members might feel sentimental about nominating him in this category. Uncut Gems is an unexpected hit, both critically and commercially, but it feels more like a critics movie than an Academy’s movie… yet a Best Original Screenplay nomination here would recognize the Safdies and Bronstein (the behind the camera geniuses) and A24 is pursuing some Oscar love for this movie really hard. My biggest doubt about 1917 is its screenplay – will voters be “too impressed” by the visuals and sound work so they will ignore it in screenplay, or will they go for the movie across the board? I don’t know, but movies this epic often miss screenplay! Bombshell underperformed with critics and audiences, but the SAG loved it and Charles Randolph is an Oscar winner already – a surprising nod for Bombshell? I would say “unlikely, but still possible”. The last spot goes to Shia LaBeouf for Honey Boy – is the movie too indie? Is LaBeouf respected enough these days to become an Academy Award nominee? Sure 2019 is LaBeouf’s redemption year and the Academy might want to show him some love – but will voters go for him in Supporting Actor or here?

• BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Greta Gerwig (Little Women) and Steve Zaillian (The Irishman) all feel safe in this category: Waititi offers a delicious comedic satire about Nazis and the joy of living in Jojo Rabbit; Gerwig shows her love for Louisa May Alcott’s classic with a challenging narrative approach to Little Women without losing its soul; and Zaillian wrote one of the most acclaimed movies of the year and a current Oscar frontrunner. The 4th and 5th remain uncertain to me, but I will go for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (it has just scored a WGA Award nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay and it is one of the most critically acclaimed movies of the year, with just the right touch of nostalgia to embrace the heart of those who grew up with Mr. Rogers) and for Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria’s did a great job with this screenplay and it might just feel more relevant to nominate the screenplay and the movie’s auteur here than its highly sexualized (pop)star in Best Supporting Actress).

I can also see both Anthony McCarten (The Two Popes) and the duo Todd Phillips & Scott Silver (Joker) getting A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Hustlers spots! McCarten’s screenplay got rave reviews from critics (in fact, as much as Pryce and Hopkins’ acting) and The Two Popes deals with relevant subjects that might catch the Academy’s attentions – plus, the dialogue is a screenwriting gem! As for Joker, the movie has been getting an Oscar boost these days and it might be just too big to ignore in above the line categories – still, I’ve my doubts it will be the Academy’s cup of tea. I know the AMPAS is wider and more diverse than ever, but it still has a LOT of conservative members. Ford v. Ferrari screenwriting team might get nominated here if the movie overperforms with the Oscars – it’s a very “old school” movie with the same vibes of a 90’s classic, which might please some of the older members of the branch. Richard Jewell and Just Mercy appear here much as “filler contenders” for my predictions – their subjects are relevant and look Oscar-lovely on paper, but both movies failed to generate much wider interest or strong awards buzz.