Best Supporting Actor is not anyone's game. At this point of the race (after the Golden Globes wins, the guilds noms and the BAFTA noms), it's clear Brad Pitt is the front runner for his charming performance in Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - not only he's as magnetic as he always is, but his award buzz for the performance itself is elevated by the movie's crazy Best Picture buzz and it is expected to get recognition all over the board coming Oscar nominations morning. The other reason why Pitt seems such a lock for a nomination (and a win, since he has been sweeping almost every award) it's because Joe Pesci and Al Pacino are splitting votes for their performances in The Irishman, for sure. Pesci is more restrained as a mob boss, yet he's an haunting presence in the movie and he was singled out by critics as the MVP, winning a hand full of critics prizes. As for Pacino, not many critics considered him The Irishman's MVP, but he delivers the showiest of the ensemble performances as the hot blooded Jimmy Hoffa and while he didn't equal Pesci's critics prizes wins, he equals in co-star in terms of televised awards nomination (both scored Golden Globe, SAG Award, BAFTA Award and Critics' Choice Awards nods). So, right now, Pitt, Pesci and Pascino (the P Trinity) look like locks for the Best Supporting Actor category. More vulnerable: I would say Tom Hanks for his performance as Mr. Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, not because he missed any major precursor nod (he hit all those in fact), but because he has been snubed so many times for equally strong Oscar-caliber performances (2013's Saving Mr. Banks and Captain Phillips, 2016's Sully or 2017's The Post). Of course, this year he benefits from playing a TV star who's also a beloved figure in a lot of people's childhood and it feels Hanks is overdue for a 6th Academy Award nomination! Then, I'm expecting the 5th spot to go to the respected South Korean star Song Kang-ho for his work in Parasite - the man carries the last act of the movie and he's the first coming to your mind if you have to recall an actor of Parasite's wonderful ensemble cast. The critics have been embracing his performance and he even managed to win the prestigious LAFCA Award for Best Supporting Actor and the fact Parasite got a SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble Cast in a Feature Film is also good news for his Oscar chance (he would work as a diversity pick for the Oscars). Plus, considering how Parasite is over performing with the guilds, I believe there is enough love for the movie to generate a nomination for Song Kang-ho.
The second tier is led by Anthony Hopkins, for his performance as Pope Benedict XVI in The Two Popes - and I must confess Hopkins over performed with awards when compared to what I was expecting from him. The performance is stellar (but it is a case of clear category since he's a clear co-lead) and the movie resonates, but will the Academy nominate 3 (I mean, THREE) actors from a Netflix production in the same category? I've my doubts, but Golden Globe, BAFTA Award and Critics' Choice nominations for this performance make me believe it can happen! As for Jamie Foxx, he makes Just Mercy a Foxx-show and I would call this performance his best work since 2004's Ray, but not many precursors recognized showed love for his latest work! He got a SAG Award nomination, a Black Reel Award nod and he won the AAFCA Award for Best Supporting Actor... and nothing more...! Will the Academy go for this Academy Award winner in such a low-key movie? Maybe if they consider they need more diversity and "color" than a contender like Song Kang-ho (Parasite) can give in order to avoid another #OscarSoWhite! I think Willem Dafoe was a big passion vote last Oscar season for his incredible performance as Van Gogh in At Eternity's Gate (which earned him his 4th Oscar nomination), but will he get those passion votes for the 2nd year in a row, but this time for The Lighthouse? Sure the performance is brilliant and he's remarkable, but he missed being nominated for the Globes, BAFTA and SAG...! Will all the critics support (and prizes) win him a 5th Oscar nod? I've my doubts. One of the year's best performances comes from Shia LaBeouf in Honey Boy and he had a fair amount of critical recognition and he even got an Independent Spirit Award nomination for the portrayal of his own dad on-screen. 2019 is LaBeouf's redemption year and he blessed us with amazing movies and performances (The Peanut Butter Falcon adds extra points here) - will the AMPAS want to nominate him? It can happen in Best Supporting Actor and/or Best Original Screenplay. For last, Sterling K. Brown for Waves, who underperformed this award season - in fact, I was expecting Waves to be a major award player this season, specially with the indie awards and with the critics associations prizes, but I was wrong...! No matter what, he delivers a great performance as the patriarch of a Black American family falling to pieces and he's a respected name in the industry, so... a surprise nominee?
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