Unlike Best Actor, the race for Best Actress is closed to 7 contenders who raised above all the others, but it looks like a very volatile category in terms of who’ll get the 4th and 5th spots. There are 3 actresses I would considered “locked” for a Best Actress nomination this year: Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story; Renée Zellweger for Judy; and Charlize Theron for Bombshell. From these three, I would say Charlize Theron is certainly competing for a nomination, while Johansson and Zellweger are competing for a win if both manage to get nominated. Johansson has the most interesting narrative of all the Best Actress contenders: a former child actress who has become one of the biggest Hollywood stars with one of the greatest careers when compared to the actresses of her generation, but she has never received any Oscar recognition! In Marriage Story, she delivers one of the greatest performances of her career as an actress going through a divorce so she can have a life of her own without having to live in the shadow of her husband (a feminist vibe). It’s Johansson at the most dramatic mode she has ever been – and she has already got Golden Globe, SAG Award and Critics’ Choice Award nominations for Best Actress, plus a ton of critics prizes wins and nods. Considering Marriage Story is a strong Best Picture contender and the movie (and the actress) has the giant Netflix backing its awards campaign – and it does not hurt Johansson the fact she also stars in another Best Picture contender (Jojo Rabbit) and in the highest-grossing movie of all time (Avengers: Endgame), also this year – I believe this is the year of Scarlett Johansson. Then comes Renée Zellweger, a former America’s sweetheart, she’s having a huge career comeback thanks to her buzzy and showy performance in Judy, where she portrays the legendary Judy Garland. Don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think it is a brilliant performance, but it is a “damn showy one”! She hits the Oscar right notes in Judy: singing, dramatic moments, thousands of potential Oscar clips and she plays a Hollywood legend in her darkest years, an actress that happens to had never received an Oscar herself. Will the AMPAS want to honor Garland by giving a win to Zellweger? Likely to happen! Well… but let’s not forget Zellweger is an Academy Award winner already (she won Best Supporting Actress for Cold Mountain), but her win didn’t aged well in people’s minds, calling it “undeserving” these days…! Is she the kind of actress who deserves to join the “two-time Oscar winning actresses club”? Charlize Theron comes 3rd for Bombshell, mostly because of the lukewarm movie’s reception – Bombshell is neither a critical and commercial failure, neither a critical and a commercial success – but Theron’s performance as TV personality Megyn Kelly received rave reviews. It’s not a juicy part, but the way Theron becomes Kelly is impressive and looks effortless: she nailed Kelly’s voice and a big couple of her mannerisms, the way she stares… A great work of acting and character study that proves how gifted Theron is as an actress! Plus, the sexual harassment topic and Theron’s personal struggles to get the movie made will also catch Academy members’ attentions for sure! She has been doing good with the precursors and most people feel she’s overdue for a 3rd Oscar nomination, specially if you consider her amazing work since her last Oscar nomination back in 2005 for North Country. She will be nominated for sure!The fourth and fifth spots… well, I’m going for Lupita Nyong’o for her performance in Us: she’s simply memorable! Considering the early release of Us, it is a good sign people still remember her terrific acting turn at this point. She might have missed a Golden Globe nomination, but she got a SAG nod and she’s the absolute Best Actress champion in what comes to critics prizes wins! Her vulnerability lies in the AMPAS genre bias – for some reason, Academy members don’t tend to go for horror movies, no matter how brilliant they are. A few exceptions, of course, but they don’t like the horror genre in general. Still, given the huge push her critics wins gave to her Oscar campaign I believe she will make the final Best Actress Oscar nominees shortlist. And this year’s edition of the Oscars need some diversity and (if nominated here) Lupita can become the first Black actress ever to be nominated for Best Actress after a previous Oscar win! Or will she be this year’s Toni Colette for Hereditary? Hope not! For the final spot, I’m predicting Saoirse Ronan for playing Jo March in Greta Gerwig’s Little Women. It was not easy to pick, but I believe Ronan’s status of Academy’s darling, the rave reviews she has been getting for her performance and the controversy around the lack of mainstream recognition given to movies directed by women and female directors themselves will lead the Academy to show a lot of love for a movie like Little Women and Ronan will benefit from it! Young and talented, Ronan delivers a commanding performance as the strong-willed Jo – it’s no strange territory for the actress since she has already portrayed strong young women who want to make their own way in the world on-screen before, but for reason I found a certain special charm in this performance. She’s great, but she’s not the best in show – that title belongs to Florence Pugh as Amy – yet she got a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama, a Critics’ Choice Award for Best Actress and a big couple of critics associations award nominations, which seems to be more than enough support. Plus, Jo March is a beloved character herself and the Academy has already nominated Winona Ryder for playing the same character in the 1994’s adaptation of the classic novel.
The next tier is led by Cynthia Erivo, who plays Harriet Tubman in Harriet – and I still think about switching Ronan for Erivo in my predictions! Harriet is an average movie, but it works as a showcase for its leading lady and Erivo has more than enough showy scenes that qualify as Oscar clips! The thing is: as a whole, I don’t buy Erivo’s performance because there’s something that doesn’t feel authentic. The part is juicy and the character she portrays is a Civil War hero and a major female figure in America’s history and judging by how relevant the character feels alone, it might earn Erivo a Best Actress nomination – the Golden Globes, the SAG and the Critics’ Choice Awards nominated her for Best Actress! Another actress who can pull a Best Actress nomination is Awkwafina for The Farewell (and she would become the first Asian American actress to get it). Right now, she’s losing momentum, but I believe her predicted Golden Globe win for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical will revive the interest and give a boost to her Oscar chances. The Academy loves when a “comedy actor” goes “drama” and Awkwafina (who’s known for her comedic chops in Ocean’s 8 and Crazy Rich Asians) excels in The Farewell. It’s a subtle yet rich and beautiful performance and critics associations awards have embraced her: she scored a big couple of critics prizes nominations, plus a Golden Globe nod and a Critics Choice Award nomination too! Still, her missing SAG worried me, because she needed that support considering the small size of the movie and the fact A24 seems more focused on campaigning for Adam Sandler and Uncut Gems.
My last three contenders deliver remarkable performances, but somehow they didn’t get enough industry interest in spite of being brilliant: Alfre Woodard delivers a career-best performance in Clemency and she managed to get the attentions of the early indie awards, but she failed her big test – the SAG Awards – so, the only things that is left is praying for her getting a surprise Oscar nomination; Jessie Buckley’s work in Wild Rose is simply stellar and she has been getting a lot of love from those who watched the movie, but she entered the conversation too late to generate enough buzz; and, finally, Mary Kay Place for her raved performance in the indie darling Diane, playing a very sympathetic character but going nowhere besides winning the prestigious LAFCA Award for Best Actress, a couple of critics prizes nods and an Independent Spirit Award nomination for Best Female Lead.
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