And after predicting Best Original Screenplay (such a competitive category this year!!!), it's time to predict Best Adapted Screenplay, a much weaker race when compared to Best Original Screenplay in my sincere opinion. And when I say "weaker" I don't mean the contenders aren't that strong... it's just there aren't MANY STRONG ones!
So, here I present you my predictions:
So, we have 2 Oscar favorites (Call Me By Your Name and Mudbound), 1 unexpected critical hit from the directorial debut of a respected screenwriter (Molly's Game), 1 big Oscar hope (Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck) and 1 praised movie from a well-respected director (Sofia Coppola's The Beguiled): it doesn't sound that weak, I know! But let's have a look at my other contender and then you'll see how these top 5 stand out from the crowd:
- #6: The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter & Michael Weber - The AMPAS loves movies about movies (or movie stars) and The Disaster Artist chronicles the making of Tommy Wiseau's 2003 The Room. In fact, I don't consider this movie to have big Oscar hopes outside of the Best Actor department, but reviews have been stellar about the way the movie explores the creative process and that's thanks to its screenplay! If it gets some heat, then maybe it might have some chances...
- #7: Last Flag Flying, Richard Linklater & Darryl Ponicsan - The movie is sincere and it touches questions about grief and duty with sensibility. The movie is not bad and it balances drama with some funny moments in an effective way, but there's a problem... it seems no one is talking about the movie. No matter what, Linklater is a respected director/screenwriter in the industry (just remember the recent Boyhood success and the acclaimed Before trilogy), so maybe Last Flag Flying is a quiet/silent contender.
- #8: Lady Macbeth, Alice Birch - The movie met enthusiastic receptions during film festivals and the British Independent Film Awards went crazy for this one. It's not AMPAS cup of tea, but its plot twists and its crazy last act might impress... and then there's a certain female empowerment message here which might please some Oscar voters. Plus, it is Alice Birch's first screenplay and they might think about rewarding a fresh face.
- #9: Stronger, John Pollono - Read this: this movie might impress when award season begins! The AMPAS loves movies about disabilities and this one has a very mature take on Bauman's story. Superb acting performances elevate the writing material and these might well be a potential key to unlock Stronger's Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar chances.
- #10: You Were Never Really Here, Lynne Ramsay - The winner of the prize for Best Screenplay at this year's edition of Cannes Film Festival (tied with the original screenplay of The Killing of a Sacred Deer), You Were Never Really Here generated a huge wave of rave reviews at Cannes. The movie isn't the Academy's cup of tea, but Joaquin Phoenix's performance will draw attentions to the movie. Ramsay never got an Oscar nod in spite of acclaimed works in the past... Will she get it for this movie about murder?
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