I know it is my 1st round of Best Original Screenplay Academy Awards 2018 predictions, but it is included during my 2nd GENERAL round of Oscar predictions.
And let me say something: Best Original Screenplay might well be the most interesting race this season, because of the variety and quality of the contenders. Extremely competitive and hard to predict (since the AMPAS loves to surprise us in this category when contenders are this diverse and interesting). So, let's not waste time....!
Here are my top 5 contenders:
I know... there are quite interesting contenders this year, right? Don't call me a mad man, but I really believe in The Big Sick's Oscar hopes! Seriously, it's one of the best movies of the year so far, it's so feel-good without being stupid or losing its heart and I bet most Oscar folks aren't paying attention to this contender (and it got a Gotham Independent Film Award nomination for Best Screenplay, which can mean something)! Three Billboards is a clear favorite in this race and I understand why - it is the kind of "simple movie" with strong acting and a sensitive direction that nabs a "natural" Oscar nod in one of the screenplay categories. The Post looks amazing and the AMPAS loves Spielberg's movies. Jordan Peele might not see Get Out between Best Picture nominees shortlist or Daniel Kaluuya as one of the five Best Actor nominees, but he has a chance in Best Original Screenplay - successful creative independent productions often find some Oscar warm here. And The Shape of Water... well, it might catch the AMPAS enthusiasm since I see this one getting multiple technical nominations.
But who are the other contenders that can be as strong as the previous? Meet them:
- #6: Darkest Hour, Anthony McCarten - Inspiring lines, a war drama and political discussions! It screams a "natural contender" for Best Screenplay, but will the AMPAS get too amazed by Oldman's performance and Darkest Hour visual beauty (and Dario Marianelli's score) like what happened with Pride & Prejudice? Maybe! It is a Best Picture contender, but sometimes Best Picture players lose screenplay recognition to smaller not-Best-Picture-nominated-movies.
- #7: The Florida Project, Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch - The movie is getting a lot of Best Picture and Best Director heat and a Best Original Screenplay might just happen. The buzz around the movie's screenplay is recent, so I'm cautious about this "recent release" enthusiasm, but I can see it happen. It would be delicious, but competition is though!
- #8: The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Yorgos Lanthimos & Efthymis Filippou - They got nominated last year for the critical acclaimed The Lobster, but will they make it two in a row with The Killing of a Sacred Deer? It won Screenplay Prize at Cannes and the movie has been collecting raves from critics. AMPAS doesn't like "too European" movies between Best Picture or other top categories (unless they really want to recognize their auteur), but screenplay categories are "consolation categories".
- #9: Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig - Is Lady Bird an actors' movie? Well, yes, it is. But Greta Gerwig proved she's more than just an actress: she's a sensitive director and a terrific screenwriter! The screenplay is tremendous (read it if you have the opportunity) and critics have been unanimous about the movie... it is one of the year's best.
- #10: Baby Driver, Edgar Wright - The movie is sensational! The whole concept, the lines, the smart jokes... A great script. Baby Driver just feels really fresh in a cinematic world of old formulas, remakes, reboots, prequels and sequels. Will the AMPAS go for it? Well, it can happen if critics and the Writers Guild go for this one (and it has to do good in the Golden Globes!). But it's a long-shot...
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