I don't consider there are big changes when it comes to Best Director top contenders, but there are emerging players like Sean Baker (The Florida Project), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) or Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and some names are out of the race like Woody Allen (Wonder Wheel) and Richard Linklater (Last Flag Flying).
So, here are my top contenders who compose my predicted Best Director nominees shortlist:
Just like you can see, according my predictions, Best Director will be almost all about new blood (or let's just say "first time nominees"): Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk, Guillermo del Toro for Shape of Water, Joe Wright for Darkest Hour and Sean Baker for The Florida Project. Only Steven Spielberg (The Post) has scored an Oscar nomination for directing before and in such a strict category, he is likely to be nominated in order to represent the Hollywood Masters' Class.
But who are the other contenders? Just check them:
#6: Dee Rees for Mudbound - After Pariah, Dee Rees presented us one of the very best movies of the year: Mudbound! It's not perfect, but it is quite remarkable! The movie combines a sensitive approach with narrative with directorial style and the result is a major cinematic accomplishment, but indie awards ignored Dee Rees (Gotham and Independent Spirit)... But the AMPAS might be interessed about having her as a Best Director nominee since she would be the 5th women nominated for Best Director and the first African-American one!
#7: Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name - The well-respected director of one of the most beloved movies of the year. Call Me By Your Name is getting a lot of attentions from the media and the first awards of the season have fell in love for the movie. Will the AMPAS love Call Me By Your Name? And can Oscar voters go for Guadagnino? A gay director bringing a gay coming-of-age love story is fascinating for sure, but they've already nominated Barry Jenkins for Moonlight last year (and Ang Lee won for Brokeback Mountain, 2004). New goals? Or does the Academy want to spread the message of tolerance?
#8: Jordan Peele for Get Out - A black director that also happens to be the screenwriter and producer of Get Out, one of the most well-reviewed box-office sensations of the year. A small indie production that got global attentions. I see a bright awards season for Get Out, but I confess I've some difficulties picturing this one as an Oscar favorite... But sometimes AMPAS wants to recognize successful creative directorial debuts from young promising figures, so Peele seems to be the man!
#9: Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - The cinematic sensation of TIFF, Three Billboards is an audiences' favorite and critics loved it too! McDonagh is no stranger to Oscar talk (remember In Bruges?), but the AMPAS never went for him as a director. The movie is a success and his approach is described as being extremely sensitive, but it's not a showy directing work or an extremely creative movie. But if the AMPAS really goes for the movie, McDonagh might have a better chance than I think...!
#10: Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird - She's a really nice surprise behind the camera. It seems Gerwig was able to translate her creative persona to behind the camera in such a way as good as her acting. Lady Bird is doing great at the box-office and holds an impressive 100% score at Rotten Tomatoes, which says a lot! While first awards don't put Gerwig competing for Best Director, she's running for Breakthrough Director at Gotham Awards and more will follow. She's more likely to get a Best Original Screenplay nod than a Best Director one, but Lady Bird kinda reminds me of Juno (2007), a movie that granted Jason Reitman a Best Director nomination. Can she become the 5ht woman to receive a Best Director nod?
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